Jeff Haney finds reasons to put your money on NBA teams other than odds-on-favorite Boston

By Jeff Haney

Saturday, April 26, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Like a horseplayer who discounts a heavy favorite when analyzing a 1 1/8-mile route race, sports handicapper Joe D’Amico is trying to beat the Boston Celtics in the NBA playoffs.

The Celtics are playoff “chalk” — betting lingo for an overwhelming betting favorite — at odds of even money to win the NBA title, but D’Amico thinks he has spotted some weak spots in Boston’s facade.

“I began noticing something in the second half of the regular season as opposed to the first half,” D’Amico said. “This Celtics team has as much talent in its starting five as any starting five in basketball. But they spend a lot of minutes on the floor and they get tired. In the second half of the season, I saw them getting tired a lot during the second half of games.

“Plus, four or five of their players in the last month and a half have been out at least once with the flu or a minor injury. I think they might be getting tired.”

The Celtics opened the playoffs as the biggest series favorite by far of the eight first-round matchups. At sports books that opted to put a price on the board, Boston was favored by odds as high as 60-1 to defeat the Atlanta Hawks in Round 1.

The results of the first two games of the series surprised exactly no one, at least not among oddsmakers or the NBA betting marketplace. Boston won the first two games against Atlanta, covering the spread as a 15-point favorite each time.

Because an easy win against the Hawks was built into the Celtics’ odds before the playoffs started, they’re still available at about even money to win the NBA title. The Celtics, on the road today in Game 3, are an 8-point favorite in Las Vegas sports books.

“Betting them at 5-6, or even 6-5, to win the championship is not something I’m interested in,” D’Amico said. “I don’t think they have exactly what it takes to win it all.”

D’Amico also crossed off the longest shots of the 16 NBA playoff teams to focus on midrange prices he thought offered the most value to bettors.

Odds on the Cleveland Cavaliers, last year’s Eastern Conference champs, pack the most punch at 22-1, according to D’Amico, who also recommends the New Orleans Hornets (9-1), Orlando Magic (25-1) and Utah Jazz (10-1) as possible teams to back.

“The Cavs are a team that was there last year,” said D’Amico, a contributor to the betting Web site Vegas Insider (vegasinsider.com). “Figure an average bettor who likes to bet between $100 and a nickel ($500), if he wants to make a regular-sized bet, he could get a payoff in the thousands of dollars. It’s a good risk-reward for a lot of bettors.”

The Cavaliers, behind LeBron James, got off to a quick start in their first-round series against Washington, in which the Cavs opened at pick ’em or as a small favorite.

“I don’t expect Washington to be a pushover, but I think King James will show you what he’s made of right here,” D’Amico said.

Oddsmakers have the Los Angeles Lakers favored to advance to the finals from the Western Conference (2-1 to win the league title), ahead of the defending champion San Antonio Spurs (9-2 to win the title).

The Lakers beat the Denver Nuggets in the first two games of their series, covering the spread as an 8 1/2-point favorite each time. L.A. is a 1-point underdog on the road today in Game 3.

D’Amico likes the Lakers’ chances as well, especially because he thinks they’ll have the best player on the court in each of their playoff games, but is not attracted to the short price attached to them.

“I feel Kobe Bryant is the single best player in the game,” he said. “In a couple of years it could be LeBron or a kid like (Chris) Bosh, but right now if I could choose one player, if I’m a coach or an owner starting a team, I’m going to take Kobe Bryant as that one player. He can make a bigger impact on the court than anybody.

“The Lakers are a very good team, but I don’t see the value in betting them.”