Jeff Haney on why bettors are racing to sports books to back Nevadans against Tar Heel drivers on Sunday

By Jeff Haney

Friday, Feb. 29, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Of the myriad betting propositions on Sunday’s UAW-Dodge 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, one best reflects the ever-changing NASCAR landscape.

It’s available at the sports books at all Station Casinos properties, and it pits drivers from Nevada against drivers from North Carolina in Sunday’s Sprint Cup race. Winning wagers will be determined by which group has the better finish in the race.

“Traditionally you think of North Carolina as the epicenter of everything having to do with NASCAR,” said oddsmaker Micah Roberts, sports book director at Sunset Station, who created the prop. “But if you think about it some more, there are really only five drivers currently in North Carolina, whereas 15 years ago there probably would have been 20 drivers.”

Because the prop relies on NASCAR’s official listing of the drivers’ hometowns, bettors backing Nevada have Kurt Busch and Kyle Busch working for them, and North Carolina bettors get Dale Earnhardt Jr., Dale Jarrett, Kyle Petty, Scott Riggs and Brian Vickers.

Impressed by the performance of Kyle Busch this season — he finished fourth in the Daytona 500 and fourth in the Auto Club 500 — bettors have been playing the Nevada side of the prop. After opening at minus-110 (risk $1.10 to win $1), the Nevada side has been bet up to minus-160.

“It really illustrates the whole transition of NASCAR, how it has gone global from its roots as a regional sport,” Roberts said. “There are a lot of talented drivers from west of the Mississippi — California, Nevada, Washington state — places that never used to be considered NASCAR-friendly.”

Four of the five North Carolina drivers, in fact, are long-shot bets to win Sunday’s race: Riggs at 75-1, Vickers at 75-1, Jarrett at 100-1 and Petty at 500-1.

Kurt Busch is a 17-1 shot, with Roberts predicting a 12th- to 18th-place finish for him, so the wager could come down to Kyle Busch (an 11-1 shot) against Earnhardt Jr. (13-1).

In betting to win the race, gamblers have been backing Jimmie Johnson, looking for his fourth consecutive victory in the Las Vegas race, and former champ Jeff Gordon, according to Roberts.

The odds on Johnson, the race favorite, have dropped from 7-1 to 6-1 and Gordon’s odds have dropped from 8-1 to 7-1 at Station books, Roberts said.

Weekend baskets

Sitting atop the Atlantic 10 Conference standings with an overall record of 24-4 and a league mark of 12-1, Xavier appears poised to make a big run for the title in next month’s college basketball tournament.

The Musketeers figure to enter Saturday’s home game against George Washington as a heavy double-digit betting favorite.

After analyzing the lengthy weekend card, though, Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D’Amico recommended the Colonials — who have sunk almost to the level of lowly St. Bonaventure in the A-10 — as one of his best college basketball bets of the day.

Using the Gold Sheet’s power ratings and his own research to project a point spread, D’Amico made Xavier a 20-point favorite, and he likes George Washington at that number or better.

GW, the defending conference champion that has made the NCAA Tournament in three consecutive seasons, should be motivated to salvage a nearly lost season just by qualifying for the A-10 tournament, which includes 12 of the league’s 14 teams.

D’Amico likes the Colonials’ personnel, including point guard Johnny Lee, a key factor in the team’s recent turnaround after a devastating midseason losing streak.

“GW has been a very game team this season, and they’re showing me they can rise to the occasion against tougher teams,” said D’Amico (online at allamericansports.info). “Xavier should win the game, but GW matches up well enough that they should keep it within the (point spread) number.”

In a Big East clash that has some similarities to the A-10 game, D’Amico is backing Villanova as an underdog Sunday at Louisville.

Louisville is on a hot streak straight-up and against the point spread, but D’Amico figures the oddsmakers and the betting marketplace will finally catch up to the Cardinals. He projects Louisville to be installed as a double-digit favorite, thanks in part to its home-court advantage, in a game he thinks will be decided by only about six points.

In a Saturday game that looks obscure — except perhaps to gamblers — D’Amico likes Louisiana-Monroe to win outright as a small underdog against Arkansas-Little Rock. In their first meeting, Monroe lost by two as an 8 1/2-point underdog.