Jeff Haney shows why baseball bettors should pay attention to pitchers’ tendencies and how they match up with ballparks

By Jeff Haney

Friday, June 13, 2008 | 2 a.m.

A popular theory among baseball bettors suggests backing starting pitchers who are known as ground-ball specialists when they are pitching in ballparks that typically yield a lot of home runs.

Pitchers who are more effective in recording outs via fly balls, according to the theory, should be bet when they are starting in stadiums that do not give up many home runs.

The reasoning behind the strategy is that ground-ball pitchers are less likely to be hurt by a home run ballpark, and solid fly-ball pitchers should be even more effective in stadiums that don’t have a tendency to yield homers.

Both categories have been profitable this baseball season, although the ground-ball pitchers have been more consistent in living up to their end of the bargain.

Bettors can fine-tune the strategy in any number of ways, basing their wagers on variables such as day games versus night games at various stadiums, how they expect pitchers to perform at home versus on the road, and so on.

But for the purposes of this rather basic example, we followed 12 pitchers who have established themselves as ground-ball specialists, and another 12 known as fly-ball pitchers.

We considered six stadiums that have displayed a bias toward allowing more home runs than usual in the past couple of seasons (the home ballparks of the White Sox, Rockies, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays and Orioles) and six that have shown a bias against allowing home runs (Cardinals, Giants, Royals, Pirates, Padres, Twins).

If any of the 12 ground-ball pitchers was starting in a home run ballpark, it meant a hypothetical bet on him. If any of the 12 fly-ball pitchers was starting in a ballpark that doesn’t allow a lot of homers, it meant a bet on him. No other factors were considered.

The first category, ground-ball pitchers in home run ballparks, has triggered 36 wagers this season, with 22 winners and 14 losers. Of the 22 winners, nine were on underdogs or games that went off at pick ’em, and 13 were on favorites.

Based on a flat wager of $100 per play, regardless of the odds in the game, the 36 wagers generated a hypothetical profit of $573 using a consensus Las Vegas betting line on each game.

The heaviest favorite was Roy Halladay (5-1 in six plays) at minus-200, and the biggest underdog who cashed was Daniel Cabrera (4-1) at plus-130.

The other pitchers who yielded multiple plays according to the system were A.J. Burnett (2-4), Aaron Cook (4-1), Dustin McGowan (3-3) and Brandon Webb (2-0). Ground-all pitchers with single decisions were Felix Hernandez, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Roy Oswalt and Chien-Ming Wang.

The second category, fly-ball pitchers in nonhomer ballparks, has triggered 40 wagers in 2008, with 20 winning bets and 20 losers. Of the 20 winners, 13 were on underdogs or pick ’em games, and seven were on favorites.

Based on a flat wager of $100 per play, the 40 wagers generated a hypothetical profit of $99, again using a consensus Las Vegas line.

The bulk of the profit came from Livan Hernandez, a veteran fly-ball pitcher who joined the Minnesota Twins this season and has rewarded bettors backing him in the Metrodome. The Twins have won six of Hernandez’s seven home starts and both of his starts in Kansas City. Each victory came as an underdog or in a pick ’em game.

The heaviest favorites were Chris Young (2-3) at minus-185 and Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-0) at minus-160.

The other fly-ball pitchers who yielded multiple plays were Bronson Arroyo (2-1), Paul Byrd (0-2), Matt Cain (3-7), Ted Lilly (2-2) and Oliver Perez (0-2), with single decisions recorded by Jon Garland, John Maine, Johan Santana and Tim Wakefield.

In upcoming games that fit the strategy, Burnett starts for the Blue Jays against the White Sox in Toronto today; Halladay starts for the Blue Jays Saturday; and Cain starts for the Giants against Oakland in San Francisco Saturday.