The Perfect Storm

By Jon Ralston

Friday, May 9, 2008 | 2:01 a.m.

Nine months before the 2009 Legislature is scheduled to convene, with nearly a billion dollars in state programs guillotined and a commission now chartered to recommend even more reductions, the governor met with lawmakers this week to discuss — what else? — more cuts for next year.

As a potential summer special session looms to roll back teacher and state employee raises, as transportation projects are delayed (mostly in Southern Nevada) and as the economy shows no signs of being wheeled out of the ICU, understand where we are, folks: The state that ranks near or in the cellar for most of the important indexes of a civilized society is about to find a new nadir.

The perfect storm cliche is overused — guilty here, too — but this truly is a case of a governor responding to a torrent of problems by leaving the public exposed, plucking everything from the populace down to the last umbrella. That’s what it will come to if this continues — both the economic slowdown and, more insidiously, the mind-set.

The lawmakers who met personally or via teleconference Wednesday with Gov. Jim Gibbons and his staff were treated to a bleak picture of Session ’09 — one in which $800 million may have to be cut over the biennium. That would translate to a 14 percent across-the-board cut if that were the chosen option, or even greater, as much as 22 percent, if K-12 were exempted.

Perfect storm? This is Katrina-like devastation, and like New Orleans, the state would never get back to its previous, paltry levels.

Other possibilities for saving money were raised, too, during the meeting with GOP and Democratic leaders, including repealing state employee cost-of-living raises. That could happen as soon as this summer at a special session. But when other possibilities were hinted at — you know, Governor, something other than not funding the state’s basic needs because of a meaningless and anachronistic mantra — they were met with the sounds of silence from Gibbons. Hello darkness, my old friend.

The Wednesday meeting was not about a fait accompli — still a lot of months of revenue numbers to come in before the session begins, and across-the-board cuts have not been decided on — yet. But the budget needs to have its foundation built during the summer, so Gibbons was warning lawmakers about the potential dire straits yet to come. He is wise to again bring lawmakers into the loop, but will they hang themselves with it or wrap it around the governor’s neck?

We may see the first indicator, if indeed there is a special session this summer after some undoubtedly ominous revenue figures come in about three weeks hence. I can’t imagine the Democrats will simply stand by as co-conspirators and allow that to happen, especially because a majority of those COLAs go to teachers. I cannot imagine lawmakers would rubber-stamp any gubernatorial decision in that hypothetical (for now) special session, depending on what the agenda is and how far Gibbons wants to go.

The coming crisis will either be exacerbated or ameliorated by the new panel Gibbons officially signed into existence this week, one that will be populated by businesspeople eager to do what businesspeople always say they can do — make government run more like ... well, you know the rest.

Chairman Bruce James, whom I met with this week, wants to make the “SAGE” Commission a success, finding the obvious waste and trimming it, but then embarking on a fundamental paradigm shift in how government operates. Where have we heard that before? The result will greatly depend on the rest of the panel’s appointees — they will need some strong Southern Nevadans because so far the governor, the chairman and the executive director are all from Northern Nevada.

But James, who reformed the U.S. public printer’s office, understands politics well enough and knows how to streamline even better. But all he can do is recommend, and after he is done, we will see what SAGE this really is — The Spending and Government Efficiency Commission or The Seek and Gut Everything Commission.

With continued chatter about a schools adequacy lawsuit coming soon and the feds always sniffing around about how Nevada funds its prisons and social services, now would not seem the most propitious time to go about $2 billion backward.

If that occurs, to invoke the hackneyed phrase again, the ending for the state will be the same as for the boat in “The Perfect Storm.”