We can’t drill ourselves out of this rut

John Farrish, North Las Vegas

Friday, May 30, 2008 | 2:04 a.m.

As the price of gasoline climbs ever higher the calls for more drilling will become more strident, but don’t be fooled by the phony arguments. There are a number of reasons why drilling in Alaska — or anywhere else — will not help lower prices at the pump or help our long-term energy outlook.

First, adding what most experts believe will be no more than 1 million barrels of oil per day (from Alaska) won’t do much of anything to the price/demand curve when 86 million barrels of oil are used worldwide each day.

Second, just because oil is gathered in Alaska doesn’t mean it will be priced less than oil gathered in Saudi Arabia. Alaskan oil will hit the world market at the going rate, like any other commodity.

Third, there is no shortage of supply right now. People have all the gasoline they need; it is demand that is driving the increase in price.

Finally, the cost of oil will never decline, no matter how large the supply, as long as the demand for it keeps increasing exponentially. Simple math tells us that reducing the current growth rate of consumption (5 percent annually) by half will be more effective than doubling the supply of oil. If oil consumption worldwide continues to increase by 5 percent per year, total consumption will double in less than 15 years. If we reduce that rate to 2.5 percent, it will take a little more than 28 years for consumption to double.

Of course, as long as consumption rates continue to grow we will never climb out of this rut. The answer to our oil problem, therefore, is not to find more oil; it is a poor short-term solution and absolutely doomed to failure in the long run. The answer to our oil problem is to stop using so much oil. Our national energy policy should focus on developing alternatives to oil, not on ravaging our wilderness to provide a short-term sop.