Ensign perks up on GOP’s chances in Senate

By Lisa Mascaro

Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008 | 2 a.m.

No more Mr. Pessimism.

Nevada Sen. John Ensign on Wednesday shook off his typically gloomy assessment of the Republican Party’s prospects in Senate races this fall. Instead of losing seats, falling further into the minority, Republicans might hold their position, Ensign said, or at least come close to doing so.

Ensign told reporters his party’s candidates are benefiting enormously from the Palin bounce — the outpouring of voter enthusiasm that followed the Republican National Convention and presidential candidate Sen. John McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate.

The party is also benefiting from increased fundraising and the fact that Palin gives voters a reason to “take a second look at the Republican Party, the Republican message.”

After nearly two years struggling with the party’s prospects after voters tossed Republicans from power in Congress in 2006, Ensign is finally seeing some sunshine.

“I feel better than I did at any time in the past,” Ensign said. “I think it’s possible for us to even hold where we are — or only lose one or two seats.”

Here’s the math:

Republicans have 23 seats up for election in the Senate this fall, an unusually high number that gives Democrats many opportunities to expand their majority. The chamber is now narrowly divided, 51-49.

Ensign has been preparing to lose four seats. Voters have repeatedly told pollsters they favor Democrats this cycle.

Ensign started seeing an uptick in the polls before the political conventions and adjusted his outlook.

Republicans are most vulnerable in Virginia, where popular longtime Sen. John Warner is retiring. The party is also expected to have a tough time hanging on to New Mexico, where Sen. Pete Domenici is stepping down.

Other difficult races will be in Colorado and New Hampshire, as well as in Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska, where Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator in history, is awaiting a corruption trial.

Democrats are defending 11 seats, but only Sen. Mary Landrieu’s seat in Louisiana is considered seriously challenged.

Ensign is buoyed by recent polling that shows his incumbents are within the margin of error in six of his top 10 races. “It depends on those six seats, which way they swing,” he said.

Still, experts say his analysis is shaky.

“I’m not buying it,” said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Duffy puts Republican losses at five to seven seats.

But Duffy does see a bit of hope for Ensign. Gone for now are the Democrats’ hopes of reaching a filibuster-proof majority of a 60-seat Senate. Republicans have widened their leads in Mississippi, Maine and Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been in Democrats’ sights.

“I don’t see that Democrats getting to 60 is possible now,” Duffy said.

And that may give Ensign some relief — or at least help him put on a better game face after colleagues criticized him for being so gloomy.

Lisa Mascaro can be reached at (202)

662-7436 or at lisa.mascaro@lasvegas

sun.com.