Checking Back: Economic predictions

By Brendan Buhler

Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2008 | 2 a.m.

When the economy started to dip in late 2006, experts assured us it was a minor blip. And they’ve kept at it, though not so often, lately.

“Next in line to take a turn for the worse: Las Vegas, where our forecasters think home prices will sink 6.6 percent next year and another 8.1 percent in 2008.” — Fortune Magazine, Dec. 25, 2006

Analysis: Fortune’s predictions were regarded by some as alarmist. As it turned out, prices in 2007 fell about 13 percent and, so far this year, about 26 percent.

“We’re not going to see significant drops in home values. What’s happened here is the market has corrected itself, and I think it’s just about done doing so. I’m telling people I believe within nine months to a year, we’re going to start seeing normalized appreciation of half a percent a month, or 6 percent a year.” — Clark County Assessor Mark Schofield, January 2007 (Review-Journal)

Analysis: Ibid.

2007 to 2010 is a sweet spot in the stock market, with prices to go up between 16 percent and 18 percent in 2007 and 19 percent overall. — U.S. Bank private wealth manager Scott Bedell, February 2007

Analysis: In 2007, the Dow Jones industrial average increased 7.3 percent. As of close of trading Monday, it had fallen 12 percent since the start of 2007 and 16 percent since the start of this year.

The housing market could leave the doldrums as soon as the first or second quarter of 2008 and an unsteady stock market could benefit housing. — Steve Bottfeld, analyst with Marketing Solutions, a research firm, Oct. 25, 2007 (Review-Journal)

Analysis: As it turns out, when Wall Street melts down like this, credit dwindles, which makes it hard to buy houses.

“I see an improvement this year, but it will not be overnight.” — Patricia Marks, psychic, discussing the Las Vegas business outlook, February 2008 (Las Vegas Business Press)

Analysis: Since then, Nevada has gone into a recession. Marks also predicted “next year will be even better.”