This season’s overachievers on betting odds

By Jeff Haney

Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2008 | 2 a.m.

With updated betting odds on baseball’s postseason to be released in the next day or so, the conclusion of the major league regular season brought to light one team and one individual who clearly surpassed the preseason expectations of oddsmakers and the betting public.

The team was the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays, who smashed the low expectations oddsmakers had for them in 2008. The Rays opened as high as 50-1 in Las Vegas to win the division — an upset they’ve pulled off — and 200-1 to win the World Series.

The Rays cruised past their regular-season over/under victory total of 75, crushing that figure by 22 wins.

The individual was Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard, who was able to exceed high preseason expectations of fans and oddsmakers.

Howard was a 4-1 favorite in March to lead the majors in home runs, according to odds at the Palms sports book, and he did just that, belting 48.

Howard backers also cashed in on a head-to-head matchup pitting him against Prince Fielder in a proposition asking which player would hit more home runs. Howard was a 3 1/2-home run favorite at minus 145 (risk $1.45 to net $1), and won when Fielder finished with 34 homers.

Howard also surpassed the over/under figure on his regular-season home run total, which was set at 44 1/2 at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

The results of betting on the pitcher to lead the majors in wins, also offered at the Palms, contained a surprise. Arizona’s Brandon Webb and Cleveland ace Cliff Lee finished in a tie with 22 victories apiece. Webb was an 8-1 shot in March, one of the favorites, while Lee was so lightly regarded he was part of “the field,” or all others not among the 48 pitchers listed. The field was a 39-5 shot.

Wagering on baseball’s award winners is not permitted in Nevada, but offshore gambling operations that take such bets project Lee as a runaway winner of the AL Cy Young Award, with closer races for the other major individual awards.

Webb is favored to win the NL Cy Young in a three-man race that also includes San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum and Cincinnati’s Edinson Volquez.

AL MVP balloting looks to be a two-man race with the Angels’ record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez a slight favorite ahead of Texas’ Josh Hamilton.

The race for NL MVP appears relatively open, with Albert Pujols of St. Louis a slight favorite ahead of contenders Lance Berkman of Houston, Carlos Delgado of New York and Howard.

NCAA overhaul

A wild weekend in college football shook up the betting odds to win the BCS title game.

In the most prominent upset on the schedule, previously top-ranked USC lost outright to Oregon State as a 25-point favorite.

The odds on USC to win the national championship had been 7-5 or even lower in Las Vegas before the loss. This week, updated odds figure to have the Trojans in the range of 5-1 to 6-1.

Likewise, Florida had been another popular choice with bettors at odds of 4-1 to win the title before the Gators lost to Mississippi as a 23-point favorite. Look for Florida’s updated price to exceed 20-1.

Georgia, another leading selection at odds of about 5-1, lost outright to Alabama and figures to have its price adjusted to nearly 20-1.

Oklahoma emerged as a big winner, staying unbeaten and dropping from a 4-1 shot to win the title to the new favorite at odds of about 5-2.

Alabama figures to take a position as almost a co-favorite with the Sooners at odds of 4-1 or so, followed by fellow unbeaten teams LSU (consensus in the 10-1 neighborhood), Missouri (6-1), Texas (11-1) and Penn State (12-1).

BYU and Texas Tech, also undefeated, step up as intriguing long shots.

NHL odds

The defending Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings are projected to be the class of the NHL again this season, according to odds recently posted at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

In team regular-season points over/under wagering, oddsmakers installed Detroit’s total at 109 1/2, the highest number on the board by a comfortable margin.

The Red Wings recorded a league-best 115 points last regular season on their way to winning their fourth Stanley Cup in 11 years.

The San Jose Sharks command the next-highest points over/under figure at the Hilton at 102 1/2, followed by the Anaheim Ducks at 100 1/2 and the Dallas Stars and Montreal Canadiens each at 99 1/2.

In wagering to win the 2008-09 Stanley Cup, Detroit is favored at 7-2 followed by the Pittsburgh Penguins at 7-1 and the Ducks and Sharks each at 10-1.

The NHL regular season begins Saturday.