Too eager to see an upswing?

By Brendan Buhler

Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Making predictions is one thing, making them with consequences is another. How have policy setters and opinion makers done on the recession?

“All of the economists who gave us information predict 2007 is going to be a year where the economy slows throughout the country and Nevada. Then we will see a pickup in 2008-09.”

­— Deborah Pierce, Economic Forum chairwoman and chief financial officer, Hooters Hotel, Las Vegas, November 2006 (Review-Journal)

Analysis: The Economic Forum’s forecast was used to draw up the state’s 2007-09 budget. The Legislature has since had to cut the budget by $1.2 billion because revenue fell short. The Economic Forum has revised its forecast downward twice since then.

“We are lucky to be living in Nevada. We are still in a lot better shape than most other states.”

— Pierce, saying a boom might come in the 2008 fiscal year

Analysis: Budget aside, Nevada now has the eighth-highest unemployment rate in the nation — 7.1 percent.

“There’s going to be dirt flying and dust getting in your eyes, a disheveled coiffure. It will range from a mild annoyance to a severe headache.”

— Keith Schwer, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, saying he was hesitant to predict an economic downturn, June 2007 (Review-Journal)

Analysis: A year later, Schwer announced that Southern Nevada was in a recession.

“There are so many uncertainties. But I think we should start low and increase the projection if necessary as we move into summer, rather than making the mistake of overstaffing.”

— Martha Tittle, Clark County School District human resources officer, on lowering the district’s enrollment estimate to 314,136 students, March 2008

Analysis: It looks as if the enrollment will be remarkably close to that estimate, only about 2,780 students shy. The district shouldn’t have to make any layoffs.