Chicago Bears long shot at any odds

By Jeff Haney

Friday, Sept. 11, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Already a trendy team among NFL prognosticators, the Chicago Bears officially became a chic pick when Sports Illustrated predicted they would reach the Super Bowl.

Count Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D’Amico among those not buying into the hype.

Even with the acquisition of quarterback Jay Cutler in a big trade with Denver, the Bears enter Week 1 of the regular season as the most overrated team in professional football, according to D’Amico.

Sure, Cutler, a Pro Bowl selection who owns single-season Denver franchise records for passing yards and completions, represents an improvement for the Bears at quarterback. He takes over a post held in recent years by the likes of Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton and a forgettable cast of other characters.

D’Amico, however, has reservations about risking money on a team led by head coach Lovie Smith. He also has concerns about the makeup and long-term health of Chicago’s offensive line — not necessarily a glamorous component of a team that would attract forecasters looking for a fashionable play.

“Everyone’s picking the Bears, mostly because they got Cutler,” D’Amico said. “I still don’t think this team is very good overall, and I think they have a very bad coach. Cutler is a step up, but he won’t be the answer to their prayers.”

Elsewhere in the NFL, D’Amico likes New England to dominate the AFC East, though he figures the Patriots’ strengths will be accounted for in the betting line.

Tread cautiously in backing the Pittsburgh Steelers, favorites in the AFC North, especially as the season progresses, D’Amico said.

“Their defense will always keep them in the game,” said D’Amico, online at allamericansports.info. “But after the first couple of games, keep an eye on how many sacks (quarterback) Ben Roethlisberger has taken. I don’t know how much abuse he can take.”

Two teams that could offer value in the point spread week to week are the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints, according to D’Amico. Both teams bring back exciting offensive schemes, with Atlanta in particular expected to field an improved defense.

“They’ll be fun to watch even if you don’t have any money on them,” D’Amico said.

Even if he expects to make money betting against the Bears in certain spots this season, D’Amico said he won’t put much stock in what happens in Week 1. In fact, he has no betting opinion on Chicago’s opener, in which the Bears are a 3 1/2-point underdog at Green Bay.

“They could win by 35 or lose by 35,” D’Amico said. “It’s a long season. If there’s something you like in the first week, by all means bet it. But don’t bet your whole bankroll. Be smart. The season lasts until February.”

Las Vegas handicapper Vic Daniello also stresses patience in the early going of the NFL season. It’s not necessarily an easy task, he said, given the propensity of football bettors to blast away from the word “go.”

Daniello, online at Gobustbookies.com, typically does not release a full contingent of NFL predictions until Week 3 of the regular season as he sees little edge against the oddsmakers or the betting marketplace in the opening week.

Once the season is in full swing, Daniello rates his picks on a scale from one-half of a unit to two units, with a single unit representing 2 percent of a player’s total bankroll.

He advises sports gamblers not to vary from that structure even if they’re tempted to blindly increase the size of their wager after sustaining a “bad beat,” to follow an ill-advised martingale system (essentially doubling down after losses), or to adopt other potentially disastrous tactics.

“Patience is a gambler’s best friend,” Daniello said. “For a bookie, the most profitable bets he can accept are bets made from emotion, anger or desperation.”

It’s appropriate, then, that Las Vegas author and handicapper Andy Iskoe calls his outfit “The Logical Approach” (online at thelogicalapproach.com). In discussing the best long shots in the NFL this season, Iskoe makes a compelling case for betting the Dallas Cowboys to win the Super Bowl — as long as you can find odds of 20-1.