Immigration reform proves a thorny issue for politicians

By Lisa Mascaro

Friday, Feb. 12, 2010 | 2 a.m.

The day after President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address — during which he uttered exactly one sentence about immigration reform — Democratic congressional leaders were asked if the issue was dead.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid stepped up to field the answer, even though the question had been directed at a colleague.

“The president, I don’t think, dropped the ball,” Reid said, explaining the White House has spoken to congressional leaders on the issue. “It’s something we need to do. It’s something we’re committed to do and we will do it as soon as we can.”

Reid’s interception was a good save. The majority leader provided the affirmation that immigration rights advocates wanted but did not hear the night before, when the president only said that the country “should” continue work on fixing the immigration system.

“That gave us some solace,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, a leading immigration reform advocacy organization in Washington.

Whether Democrats can, or should, make good on the promise to consider immigration reform this year is a decision involving deep political calculus for the coming midterm election.

Immigration reform can prompt among the ugliest debates of modern American politics, if past legislative battles are any guide. Each side carries deadly political ammunition to attack the other — either as racist and bigoted or unpatriotic and freeloading, labels no candidate wants to wear.

Democrats are weighing the risks and rewards of bringing to the fore an issue that has so divided the country, as a heated fall election season quickly approaches.

Would it be better to go forward on a bill that is among the highest priorities of Hispanic voters, who make up 12 percent of the electorate in Nevada, in hopes of propelling an increasingly important constituency to the polls? Or would the backlash from opponents, particularly those on the conservative right, with their high-volume vitriol over illegal immigration, be too heavy an attack for Democratic candidates to sustain?

Democrats face a lackluster turnout this fall, with voters expressing nowhere near the enthusiasm they had during the Obama election of 2008. Health care, the No. 1 priority among Hispanic voters, according to a 2009 poll, is on hold. Some think immigration reform, the No. 3 issue, after the economy, according to that poll, could be a motivator.

Yet nervous Democrats can easily imagine the attacks it would bring — that they are giving jobs to undocumented workers while jobless Americans collect unemployment checks.

Republicans have choices to make, too, as they decide whether to curry favor with conservative elements opposed to immigration reform — especially as many incumbents are facing primary challenges from the political right — at the risk of alienating an increasingly important voting bloc.

Hispanic voters numbered 119,000 in Nevada in 2008, a 65 percent increase over 2004, according to a survey released this week by America’s Voice.

Republicans will also have to decide whether to follow the lead of GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who is trying to forge a bipartisan solution with New York Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer on thorny immigration issues, including the long-running debate over a path to citizenship for the 12 million illegal immigrants living in the United States.

Clarissa Martinez, director of immigration and national campaigns at the National Council of La Raza, said failure to show progress on immigration reform this year would make it harder to motivate Hispanics to vote for Democrats this fall. “If they don’t see movement on this, they very well may stay home,” Martinez said.

The debate over whether to have the debate has exposed a rift separating the House, Senate and White House as Democrats struggle with the changing political landscape that is tilting toward Republicans.

The Obama administration has been working quietly behind the scenes with Hispanic leaders, devoting to the issue a team that is holding regular meetings in hopes of guiding legislation that could win bipartisan support.

Obama ran for office pledging immigration reform, even though he greatly disappointed Hispanic activists with his meager offering in the State of the Union speech. Martinez called it an “opportunity lost,” and others said it was simply underwhelming.

“The White House is extremely committed to this issue and devoting significant resources,” said Andres Ramirez, a senior vice president at NDN, a progressive policy organization in Washington, and vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee’s Hispanic caucus, who is familiar with the administration’s effort.

But House Democrats have grown tired of taking tough votes on controversial bills only to see them go nowhere in the Senate. Looking ahead to their own difficult election campaigns after the Republican Senate victory in Massachusetts, they are increasingly unwilling to do the heavy lifting.

Democratic Rep. Dina Titus has supported immigration reform as a candidate, but would prefer to see the House focus on jobs and the economy before diving into a complicated new issue.

“The House has taken up a number of major issues that are still awaiting action in the Senate,” Titus spokesman Andrew Stoddard said. “Rather than adding to that growing list, she supports letting the Senate move first while the House continues to focus first and foremost on creating jobs.”

Some Democrats think the issue can wait another year. They reason that Hispanic voters will be plenty motivated this fall in battleground states, including Nevada, with massive get-out-the-vote efforts in major races, such as Reid’s re-election and the Nevada governor’s race.

These voices think it is better to continue working in the background, preparing a bill that could pass both chambers, rather that igniting a blistering floor debate before the election.

Polls show that although immigration reform is important to the Hispanic electorate, the economy remains its top issue as Hispanic households have suffered disproportionately with foreclosures and joblessness. Democratic efforts on those issues will be motivators, they believe.

Moreover, these Democrats think Hispanic voters will rally to the polls when they see their choices. Most of the leading Republican candidates challenging Reid, for example, oppose comprehensive immigration reform in favor of stricter enforcement and border security.

But immigration reform advocates think this is wishful thinking, and warn that Democrats risk losing a group they have successfully courted away from Republicans. Hispanic groups are running television and radio ads in Las Vegas pushing the issue. Groups plan a major national rally March 21 in Washington.

Sharry, the reform advocate, outlines a scenario, albeit an optimistic one, in which a Schumer-Graham bill emerges this spring with enough Republican support — perhaps with the nine Republicans who supported the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court — to overcome reluctant Democrats.

“Democrats are in full panic mode. Republicans are in full beating-of-the-chest mode. Maybe when the dust settles we have a shot,” Sharry said.

“The question is, does Reid make time for it? He is going to get push-back from those who are scared. He’s going to get the chattering class saying this will make health care reform look like child’s play,” he said.

“I think Sen. Reid gets this. When he looks at how does he get to 50 percent-plus-one (on Election Day), a huge chunk of that is Latinos. There are a lot of Vegas businesses that need immigrants,” he said.

“We are going to press for this to be the bipartisan breakthrough.”

With that, Sharry acknowledged, “It has an Indiana Jones feel to it, I admit.”