Trailing after Nevada early vote, GOP hopes for a big Tuesday

By Michelle Rindels, Associated Press

Published Monday, Nov. 7, 2016 | 2:08 p.m.

Updated Monday, Nov. 7, 2016 | 11 p.m.

Nevada voters play an outsized role on Tuesday when they decide whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump should get their six coveted electoral votes and choose a replacement for Sen. Harry Reid in a race that could decide which party controls the U.S. Senate.

While polls are open for 12 hours starting at 7 a.m., nearly 53 percent of Nevada's 1.5 million active registered voters have already weighed in through in-person early voting or absentee ballots. Democrats have a six-point lead over Republicans in early voting turnout, but Republicans hold out hope that they'll overcome that deficit on Election Day, when they traditionally outperform Democrats.

"They didn't get the kind of vote that they needed to stop us on Tuesday," Trump said at a Saturday rally in Reno. "Don't let crazy, broken Harry Reid and his corrupt political machine decide this election for you."

Democrats are encouraged but not out of the woods with their early voting turnout lead. After a week that included visits from Clinton, her husband and quirky celebrity DJ Steve Aoki, Clinton's campaign brought in Bernie Sanders to make a closing pitch Sunday aimed at young voters who are less than enthused about the Democratic nominee.

"You have an awesome responsibility in the next two days to do everything you can to create the highest voter turnout in Nevada history," he told a crowd outside a community college in North Las Vegas. "Hillary Clinton and (Democratic Senate candidate Catherine Cortez Masto) will win if the voter turnout is high. They will lose if it's low."

Nevada's voters are 39 percent Democrat and 33 percent Republican, with about 21 percent registered nonpartisan.

Republicans have refined their voter targeting databases and had boots on the ground far earlier than in past election cycles, but they're up against the formidable ground game of the so-called "Reid machine," an alliance of unions and progressive groups intent on electing Clinton and replacing the state's feisty senior senator with another Democrat.

Trump's immigration policies have drawn loud criticism from the state's growing Hispanic population, and his comments about women have galvanized opposition.

"Having a daughter of my own ... even if I agreed with a lot of what he says, I couldn't in good conscience vote for him," said Veronica Jones, a 34-year-old mother of five from Las Vegas.

Down-ticket Republicans are on the defensive. Joe Heck, a third-term congressman seeking Reid's seat, and freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy — a conservative running for re-election in a southern Nevada district where voter registration comfortably favors Democrats — withdrew their endorsements of Trump in early October.

Heck denounced the brash businessman's "pattern of behavior and inappropriate comments" about women, but has since struggled to hold that stance without alienating the pro-Trump Republican base he needs to win his tight race. He's avoided public events in the campaign's final days.

Heck, a doctor and Army Reserves brigadier general, faces Cortez Masto, a Reid pick who's maintained a frenetic pace of highly visible get-out-the-vote events in recent days and who could become the U.S. Senate's first Latina. In the backdrop of the race is more than $90 million in outside spending that's fueled wall-to-wall ads, many of them painting Cortez Masto as corrupt and partisan in her two terms as Nevada attorney general.

Farther down the ticket, southern Nevadans are deciding between two people who have never held office to replace Heck in the House. Republican businessman and frequent candidate Danny Tarkanian, son of legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, faces lesser-known former synagogue leader Jacky Rosen in the country's most expensive House race.

Republican Hardy is trying to hang on in a district that includes southern and central Nevada, but faces a tough challenge in state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, who could be the first Nevada Latino in the House. Hardy allies have tried to tie Kihuen to an FBI investigation that's targeted a Las Vegas city councilman connected to his employer, and made a late push to paint Kihuen as a lightweight in the Legislature.

Kihuen, who has support from the Culinary Union and its formidable field team, has hammered Hardy for his prior Trump support.

In less-contested races, GOP Rep. Mark Amodei is seeking another term in a heavily Republican northern Nevada district against Democratic radio host Chip Evans. Democratic Rep. Dina Titus faces poorly funded Republican Mary Perry in an urban Las Vegas district with a 2-to-1 Democratic advantage.

Nevadans also will weigh in on legislative races that will determine whether Republicans maintain their lock on power in the Senate and Assembly, and will decide four statewide ballot questions, including one to expand background checks on gun sales and transfers and one to legalize recreational marijuana.