With the rain comes hope that 6-year California drought is ending

By Adam Nagourney, New York Times News Service

Saturday, Jan. 14, 2017 | 2 a.m.

HESPERIA, Calif. — And Friday, it rained. Again.

In most parts of the country, that wouldn’t be a huge deal. But here, the arrival of yet another winter rain in Southern California, a wet end to a week that began with heavy snow storms in the Sierra Nevada to the north, has raised a very welcome question: Is the drought that has punished California for six years finally over?

No question, California has turned a corner. There was more rain in downtown Los Angeles in December than since the drought began. For better and worse. Laurel Canyon Boulevard, the well-traveled thoroughfare curling its way through this city’s historic rock ‘n’ roll enclave, was closed for two days after the waterlogged porch of a house collapsed onto the roadway, blocking traffic.

In Northern California, the storms produced extensive flooding around Sacramento — one of the hardest-hit parts of the state. Ski resorts reported that 12 feet of snow fell in Tahoe. Mudslides closed Interstate 80 as the storm passed through the Sierra Nevada. At least five people have died, officials said.

But patches of green are popping in what had been unrelentingly brown fields around this city near the San Bernardino mountains, which was overcast and drizzly Friday. Long Beach Airport recorded 1.54 inches of rain Thursday, a record and the most since 1.36 inches fell in 1997, according to the National Weather Service.

Across the state, reservoirs that were alarmingly parched last year are close to full and in some cases, over capacity. The snowpack — which keeps the water flowing into the early summer as the snow melts — was at 163 percent above normal as of Friday. The U.S. Drought Monitor for this week reported that 42 percent of the state, mostly the northern part, was not suffering from drought conditions; that compares with 3 percent one year ago.

“Most of the state’s precipitation and snowpack are far above average, boding well for this water year,” Jay Lund, director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California in Davis, wrote in a blog post about the changing conditions. “In terms of surface water, most of California is no longer in drought.”

Some people, looking for a ray of hope, seized on the phrase “no longer in drought.” Yet Lund’s point — and those of most people who have observed this drought over the years — is significantly nuanced. For one thing, winter, which is the wet season, is not even half over yet. Many years have started off wet and gone completely dry.

For another, climate change has produced a steady uptick in temperatures, which means that the snowpack might not survive the start of summer. And there are still parts of the state that are suffering: the southern part of Tulare County and Santa Barbara.

Still, after these past six years — in which the state has been under mandatory conservation orders — this rain and snow has been a cause of celebration. “This series of storms has done more than make a dent in the drought, which is a huge relief,” said Felicia Marcus, head of the State Water Resources Control Board. “But it’s a little early to have a drought’s-over party.”

Michael Anderson, the state climatologist, said the critical moment would come April 1, when officials will measure the depth of the snow pack at what should be its height. The average for that date in a normal year is 39 inches.

“We’ve seen it before where we have started off super strong,” he said. “And then after New Year’s, everything shut off. That’s the concern we have.”

Gov. Jerry Brown and the state water board will decide, probably around that date, whether the mandatory water restriction order — which originally required a statewide 25 percent reduction in urban water use before being eased a bit last year — will be further relaxed, eased or lifted. There is a strong argument for doing that: the concern is that asking Californians to, say, take military showers and cut back lawn watering during such obviously wet times will make them less likely to take any future droughts seriously.

“Some speak of drought as permanent for California,” Lund wrote. “But, it is better to think of California being a dry place with permanent water shortages (except in unusual wet years), which is also prone to drier than average years, which are droughts. California must reconcile itself to being a dry place and some long-term water shortages.”