Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

In forecast, Sisolak loses ground in Nevada governor’s race

New Year's Eve Metro News Conference

Steve Marcus

Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, left, and then-Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak respond to questions during a news conference on New Year’s Eve security at Metro Police headquarters Dec. 26, 2017. The gubernatorial candidate Lombardo polls the most competitively among several Republicans wanting to unseat Sisolak, according to a new projection.

The Nevada governor’s race in 2022 has shifted closer to the Republican Party’s favor, a nonpartisan political newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns determined Friday. 

The Cook Political Report shifted Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak’s race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up” in its projections.

The switch can be attributed to the continuance of the lagging economy and Democratic President Joe Biden’s weak approval numbers, the report says. The report last month also shifted Nevada’s U.S. Senate race with incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto toward the GOP side for similar reasons. 

Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo polls the most competitively against Sisolak, the report says, but that could change as we get closer to the primary in June. 

The report noted that the “convoluted” GOP primary, in which several Republicans have announced their candidacies, could affect the competitiveness of the race against Sisolak. Former Sen. Dean Heller, Las Vegas City Councilwoman Michele Fiore, North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee and Trump activist and boxer Joey Gilbert are among some of the others vying for the Republican nomination. 

While some have received endorsements, one from former President Donald Trump could push a candidate forward. A Trump spokesperson did not return a request for comment about whether he has plans to endorse a candidate for governor. 

Trump has already endorsed former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who was a co-chair for the Trump campaign in Nevada, in the Senate race. 

Biden won Nevada in 2020 by 2.4 points over Trump, just as Hillary Clinton had in 2016. Those numbers were down from 12.5-point and 6.5-point wins for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, respectively, giving Republicans hope they can make further gains. 

But Democrats could rebound if the economy improves and inflation levels off by the midterms, the report says. They also hope that the national threats to reproductive freedom could motivate more liberal voters to go to the polls, the Associated Press reported Thursday

With the likely overturning of Roe v. Wade, Democrats think they can convince voters that the threat to women’s health is “real and present in a way it wasn’t before.” 

“Make no mistake,” Cortez Masto said Dec. 1 on the Senate floor, “as long as there are active efforts to eliminate the right to choose, whether in the courts or in Congress, the reproductive freedom of women everywhere is in jeopardy. We must do everything we can to protect a woman’s right to choose.” 

Mallory Payne, spokesperson for Nevada Democratic Victory, said Nevada is a competitive battleground state won by close margins cycle after cycle, and 2022 won’t be any different. Sisolak defeated Laxalt in 2018 by 39,687 votes in an election that featured more than 920,000 ballots cast.

“When voters head to the ballot box next year, their choice couldn’t be more clear: While Republicans bash each other for the next seven months, Gov. Sisolak has a record of fighting on behalf of Nevada families — from reinvigorating the economy after being hit hardest by the pandemic, to funding education at unprecedented levels, to passing historic health care legislation,” she said in a statement. 

The Nevada Republican Party did not return a request for comment — the party usually doesn’t return our requests for comment.