Is the GOP’s 2021 election success repeatable in Nevada?

By Jessica Hill

Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Republican Glenn Youngkin’s upset victory last week in the Virginia governor’s race was a big change for the blue-leaning state, where last year President Joe Biden won by 10 percentage points against Donald Trump.

And in deep-blue New Jersey, Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy last week narrowly won reelection in a much-closer than expected race to show that swing voters and moderates alienated by Trump could again be backing Republicans. After all, Biden took New Jersey last November by 15 percentage points.

It’s too early to tell if what happened in Virginia and New Jersey will be replicated in Nevada, although GOP strategists now feel they have a road map for a red wave, and Democrats have indicated they are bracing for the challenge of a growing discontent of voters.

In Nevada, Democratic incumbents Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, Rep. Steven Horsford, Rep. Susie Lee, and Gov. Steve Sisolak are expected to be in contested races on the midterm ballot in 2022, when “we don’t quite know what the environment is going to look like a year from now,” said David Damore, a political science professor at UNLV.

But he wouldn’t be surprised to see crowded Republican candidate fields, as the Virginia elections might have emboldened some to launch a campaign. Republicans likely will continue to push their anti-government overreach agendas, and Democrats will continue to warn of “Trumpian” politics, he said.

Jeremy Gelman, an assistant professor at UNR in the American politics department, said results such as in Virginia do not always predict how the midterms will go, and warned about jumping to conclusions about how good of a year it will be for either party. Traditionally, midterm elections are a referendum on the standing president, Gelman said, such as two years into the Trump presidency in 2018 when 20 House Republican incumbents lost their seats to Democrats.

In 2010, two years into President Barack Obama’s term, Democrats lost 12 seats in the Senate and 64 in the House. The White House’s party lost seats in all but three of the past 26 midterm elections, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Republicans need a net gain of just one seat in the Senate and five in the House to win control in 2022. The National Republican Congressional Committee, which is focused on retaking control of the House, was so inspired by what went down in Virginia that it sent a list of 10 House seats they are targeting in 2022 (four in New York, three in California, and one each in Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania).

One high-profile Senate race will be right here in Nevada with Cortez Masto and likely facing former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt. Laxalt, who still has to get through the Republican primary, has been endorsed by Trump — although Youngkin found success in Virginia by mostly keeping his distance from Trump.

In a statement Trump said, “He fought valiantly against the election fraud, which took place in Nevada. He is strong on secure borders and defending America against the radical left. Adam has my complete and total endorsement!” There was no evidence of election fraud in Nevada.

Laxalt in a Twitter post after the Virginia election said that voters sent a loud and clear message, rejecting Joe Biden’s “far-left agenda.” “We’re going to send another message a year from now in Nevada when we take back the Senate,” he posted.

Gov. Steve Sisolak’s campaign called Youngkin’s win a “wake-up call for Democrats,” and now Republicans are doing whatever it takes to win the remaining purple states.

“And without a doubt,” Sisolak’s campaign wrote to supporters, “flipping these battleground states could ensure that they hand Donald Trump a decisive victory in 2024.”

A crowded Republican field of Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, former U.S. Sen. Dean Heller and Las Vegas Councilwoman Michele Fiore are vying to challenge Sisolak — each bringing a similar message.

Like Youngkin in Virginia, the Republican hopefuls are pushing against vaccine mandates and critical race theory being taught in schools. They are also vowing to implement stricter border security and stop tax hikes.

An Oct. 3 poll conducted by the D.C.-based polling firm Mellman Group that surveyed 600 Nevadans put Cortez Masto 4 percentage points ahead of Laxalt. A partisan poll last month released by his campaign had Laxalt up 3 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen said the hardworking Cortez Masto has done a great job as senator.

“Let’s remember that Adam Laxalt was rejected by the people last time he ran,” Rosen said.

Democrats also face an uphill battle in that there is some frustration among voters about Democrats’ bolder promises of infrastructure and social policies, Damore said.

There is a fine line for Republicans between echoing some of Trump’s policies and leaning too far into Trump’s beliefs that could hurt their chances with swing voters and independent voters, Damore said.

“I think what was interesting was that the Republican candidate was able to do a good job signaling to Trump voters but not embracing Trump. He was able to defend the attacks from the Democrats that he was too Trumpian,” Damore said.

Youngkin pivoted to a cultural war issue, Damore said, when he focused on critical race theory, which Damore referred to as “this year’s transgender bathrooms” — an issue that tapped into overall angst but does not really matter.

Laxalt has been more assertive on the voter issues than what has been seen in Virginia, Damore said. Laxalt is very much in line with Trumpian grievance politics. But does that play to the base if you are not addressing questions about economics and health care — topics that people care about in their daily lives?

While we are about a year out from the election, Republicans are hopeful to turn the state red.

“If people show up, we see a red wave coming,” said Sharelle Mendenhall, a Republican running for U.S. Senate in Nevada. “And the reason why is because you’ve pissed off a lot of parents, grandparents. … I do see people standing up. I do see people fighting for our rights and saying that the Constitution should be upheld.”

Democrats know the margins are small and the risk of losing is great, and leaders are calling on unity and hard work.

“As Democrats, it has never been more important that we come together,” said Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Judith Whitmer in a statement following the 2021 election, “work like hell to protect the vote and ensure poll access for all of our citizens, and deliver on the promises of Build Back Better. America’s working families are suffering and the climate crisis is on a frightening trajectory. We need to come together and seal the deal.”