Latest Nevada sampling should be of concern to Cortez Masto, pollster says

By Ray Brewer (contact)

Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022 | 2 a.m.

More than half of the 885 likely Nevada voters surveyed for the New York Times/Siena College Nevada Poll indicated that economic issues — jobs, taxes or the cost of living — are most important in determining which candidates will win their votes in the Nov. 8 midterm election.

The survey results, released Tuesday, have U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Republican challenger Adam Laxalt in a statistical dead heat heading into the final week of the campaign. Each received 47% of the respondents’ support.

Don Levy, the research institute director at Siena College who has a two-decade career leading political surveys, said at this stage of the campaign an incumbent who wins reelection is often ahead in the polling.

“If I were Cortez Masto, I’d be concerned,” he said. “Cortez Masto being tied with Laxalt definitely favors the Republicans.”

The Nevada Poll was compiled Oct. 19-24 using phone interviews with likely voters of varying ages, political parties and residing in different parts of the state, Levy said. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.2%.

Nevada has 721,457 registered Democrats and 640,416 registered Republicans, meaning the state’s 651,751 nonpartisan voters will likely determine election outcomes in many of the too-close-to-call races. That includes the gubernatorial showdown between Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak and challenger Joe Lombardo, and the race for Secretary of State between Democrat Cisco Aguilar and election-denier Republican Jim Marchant.

Cortez Masto and Laxalt both hold at least 93% of their party’s voters in the poll, but Laxalt has a 48-40% lead among independents polled, Levy said.

Pollsters talked to voters who have a history of casting a ballot, he said.

A total of 51% of respondents said economic issues were most important, whereas 35% indicated social issues — abortion access, gun control and democracy — were most important. And among independent voters polled, 58% stated economic issues as “the type of issues most important in determining your vote.”

“It all hinges on the independent voter, and right now it appears they are favoring the Republican over the Democrat,” Levy said.

Thirty-four of the 100 U.S. Senate seats will be contested in the midterm election, with the Republicans defending 20 of their existing seats and the Democrats 14. The Senate is currently split 50-50 among Democrats and Republicans with Vice President Kamala Harris and her tie-breaking vote swinging the majority to the Democrats. Should Republicans pick up one additional seat in the midterms, they will control the chamber.

In addition to Nevada, hotly contested Senate races are also expected in Arizona and Georgia, where first-term Democratic incumbents are also seeking re-election. Pennsylvania’s race for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, is also among the closely watched races.

All of which means the Cortez Masto-Laxalt race could determine which party controls the Senate. Cortez Masto defeated Republican Joe Heck in 2016 by about 2.4 points, winning the seat vacated by Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid, who retired.

The midterm races — halfway through a president’s four-year term — historically are a referendum on how voters feel about the first half of a president’s term. In 2018, 42 seats in Congress — the House and Senate — flipped Democrat midway through President Donald Trump’s tenure. In 2010, midway through President Barack Obama’s first term, 63 seats flipped Republican.

The New York Times/Siena College found that 48% of respondents wanted a Republican-controlled Congress. Just 38% approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing.

Cortez Masto voted in favor of several policies that were the cornerstone of Biden’s first-term agenda, including the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and others, which she said helped lower health care and prescription costs and invested in our aging infrastructure.

“I know what this fight is about,” Cortez Masto said at a rally last week. “It’s about good-paying jobs. It’s about affordable health care. It’s about assuring we can retire with dignity.”

Cortez Masto isn’t the only Democratic incumbent in Nevada facing a stiff reelection bid because of economic concerns. In the governor’s race, the poll found 49% of those surveyed favor Lombardo, whereas 45% favored the incumbent Sisolak. Among nonaffiliated respondents, Lombardoled by 17 points, 53%-36%.

The economic crisis brought on by the pandemic was felt hard in Nevada, where the Las Vegas resort corridor was shuttered for about three months to limit the spread of the virus and ultimately save countless lives. But it led to a jobless rate of 30% and a virtual halt of the tourism-dependent economy.

The economy has since bounced back. Strip resorts in September reported revenues of $693 million, an increase of 8% from the same month in 2021. Passenger totals at Harry Reid International Airport are on pace to surpass an airport-best 51.5 million passengers in 2019.

“I knew this economy would come back,” Sisolak said. “But even I underestimated how quickly it would come and how people would pull together to help each other and the economy.”

Obama was in town Tuesday night for a rally with Cortez Masto and Sisolak at Cheyenne High School in North Las Vegas, hoping to drum up support and spark voter turnout in the final days of the campaign.

Obama in announcing his visit touched on the social concerns that have become the cornerstone of campaigning nationally for Democrats.

“While some folks are trying to roll back voting rights and a woman’s right to choose, Steve has protected them in Nevada,” Obama said of the Nevada governor. “Steve Sisolak has been there for you. And now you need to be there for him.”

The New York Times/Siena College Nevada Poll also shows a close contest for secretary of state, as the Democrat Aguilar holds a 44%-41% edge over Marchant. However, 26% of independent voters polled remain undecided, Levy said.

Marchant is on record saying no matter how Americans vote in 2024, if he is Nevada’s secretary of state, he will guarantee that Trump — who may run for the office again in two years — will be installed as president. Marchant is connected to the radical conspiracy group QAnon and worked closely with a prominent QAnon figure to recruit candidates for top election positions across the country who have indicated they would overturn election results they don’t like.

“There’s much to be decided in Nevada and it’s going to be close,” Levy said. “We hope we can contribute to the democratic process and gauge how everyone is feeling.”