Senate seat, governor’s mansion considered toss-ups in Nevada election

By Casey Harrison (contact)

Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022 | 2 a.m.

A pair of polls released last week reiterated what political experts have said all along: closely watched races in Nevada for U.S. Senate and governor are virtually toss-ups with fewer than two weeks until the Nov. 8 midterm election.

A survey released Thursday by the Trafalgar Group found Republican challenger Adam Laxalt leading Democratic U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, 49.8% to 45.6%. It also found GOP gubernatorial contender Joe Lombardo leading Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak 50.9% to 44.1%.

The poll surveyed 1,100 likely voters from Oct. 21-24 and had a 2.9% margin of error, suggesting Laxalt and Lombardo may be gaining momentum as early voting is already underway.

However, a separate poll released Tuesday by UNR showed Cortez Masto and Sisolak with leads, including Cortez Masto ahead of Laxalt 52%-39% with an additional 5% saying they were undecided, according to a UNR release.

The gubernatorial race was much closer, with Sisolak ahead of Lombardo, 47%-45%. Again, 5% said they were undecided when asked who they would vote for.

The UNR poll found that 74% of likely Republican voters support Laxalt, compared with 83% of conservatives planning to vote for Lombardo and 88% intending to vote for a Republican in one of the four U.S. House races.

More Republicans also plan to vote for Cortez Masto than other Democrats, the poll found. It was conducted Oct. 4-19 and featured 1,365 Nevadan respondents, 586 of whom are likely voters, according to the release.

The UNR poll also found Democratic incumbent Aaron Ford leading Republican Sigal Chattah 37% to 25% in the race for Nevada attorney general, though 32% remained undecided. Democratic secretary of state contender Cisco Aguilar led Republican Jim Marchant 29% to 27% with 40% undecided; and 26% plan to vote for Republican Michele Fiore for Nevada treasurer, compared with 23% for incumbent Zach Conine, with 44% undecided.

The UNR poll also found 72% of respondents support Question 1, a ballot measure that would seek to codify the Equal Rights Amendment. About 65% approved of Question 2, which would raise the minimum wage for all Nevadans from $10.50 to $12 and eliminate exceptions that allow some employers to pay less than minimum wage in certain circumstances

Respondents were less supportive of Question 3, which would establish a ranked-choice voting system in future elections, with 37% supporting and 27% undecided.

Gabbard flips

Former U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii is backing Laxalt in his race against Cortez Masto, saying in a video posted on Twitter that she left the Democrat Party because it’s been taken over by people who have “woke ideologies.”

“Unfortunately, your senator, Catherine Cortez Masto, has gone along with all of it,” Gabbard said.

“She is Joe Biden’s rubber stamp in the Senate, votes with him nearly 100% of the time,” she continued. “And that’s why I’m supporting Adam Laxalt.”

Gabbard, 41, ran for president in 2019 before dropping out of the race and supporting Biden.

But now she’s supporting Republicans and joined Laxalt on Friday in Nevada for a campaign event.

Early voting numbers

About 70,000 voters cast a ballot in person during the first week of early voting in Clark County.

That includes at least two candidates on the ballot: Democratic U.S. Rep. Dina Titus and Cortez Masto, according to releases from their campaign.

Cortez Masto cast her ballot Wednesday at the East Las Vegas Library along with first-time voters and new citizens. She is the first Latina to ever serve in Congress’ upper chamber.

Titus, representing Nevada’s 1st Congressional District, which includes parts of downtown Las Vegas and the Strip, cast her ballot at the Boulevard Mall.

In 2020, Clark County — the state’s most populous jurisdiction — tallied 194,905 through the first week of early voting, and 281,958 were cast statewide, according to secretary of state data.

Early voting runs through Friday.