Poll shows rising support for GOP candidates in Nevada midterms

By Casey Harrison (contact)

Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2022 | 5:23 p.m.

With midterm elections less than eight weeks away, Nevada's gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races appear to be among two of the most competitive in the country, according to a new poll released by Emerson College.

The poll, conducted from Sept. 8 through 10, showed Republican senate hopeful Adam Laxalt leading incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by a single percentage point and Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak tied with Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. The poll used a sample of 1,000 somewhat or very likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3%.

This newest poll shows a potential increase in support for Laxalt, the former state attorney general, with 42% support among respondents, netting one point since Emerson's last poll released in July. By contrast, Cortez Masto lost three points, now polling at 41%, while 11% remain undecided and 4% plan to vote for someone else, according to the poll.

Regardless of which candidate respondents support, 54% expect Cortez Masto to win reelection, while 46% foresee Laxalt winning, the poll found.

"Men and women break nearly in opposite directions; male voters break for Laxalt by six and women voters break for Cortez Masto by seven," Emerson College executive director of polling Spencer Kimball said in a release.

"Additionally, Cortez Masto holds a 19-point lead among Hispanic voters and 27-point lead among Black voters, whereas Laxalt leads White voters by 9."

Forty percent of respondents pledged support for Sisolak and Lombardo each, according to the poll. Approximately 12% were undecided, and 4% plan to vote for another candidate. The poll also found 52% of voters expect Sisolak to remain in office, while 48% believe Lombardo will win.

When asked about their generic congressional ballot for the midterms, the poll also found 46% of voters plan on supporting a Republican candidate, while 43% plan to vote Democrat. Nine percent were undecided.

The economy was ranked the most important issue by 42% of Nevada voters, according to the poll, followed by access to abortion (18%), health care (9%), immigration (8%), crime (5%), water supply (4%) and education (3%).

Despite only 4% of respondents saying water was their top concern, 89% of respondents said Nevada's water supply is a very (62%) or somewhat serious (27%) problem, the poll found. Of that, 62% said state and local governments are responsible or fixing the Silver State's water supply issues, while 18% said it's the federal government's job.

Other findings from the poll:

• 39% were in favor of giving parents tax-funded vouchers usable to pay for private or religious schools, while 34% oppose the measure and 18% neither favored nor opposed the vouchers. Nine percent had never heard of it.
• 61% of respondents agreed taxpayer dollars should not be used to pay off student loans, while 39% agreed with the statement "Americans and our economy will benefit from student loan forgiveness."
• 53% of voters disapprove of the job President Joe Biden is doing, and 37% approve. Ten percent said they were neutral or held no opinion.
• If Biden and ex-President Donald Trump face each other in the 2024 election, 43% would support Trump and 40% would vote for Biden.
• 40% of Nevada voters said the FBI's recent search of Mar-a-Lago, Trump's private residence, made them more likely to support the Republican if he runs in 2024 — 10 points higher than in Emerson's national poll. Approximately 32% said they were less likely to vote for him because of the search, and 28% said it made no difference.