Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson (22) shoots over New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) during the second half of a WNBA basketball game at the Michelob Ultra Arena at Mandalay Bay Thursday, June 29, 2023.
Friday, Sept. 15, 2023 | 2 a.m.
Get used to A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart leading the WNBA’s Most Valuable Player discussion. It won’t go away any time soon.
The league’s top individual rivalry — and the top team rivalry with Wilson’s Las Vegas Aces and Stewart’s New York Liberty — will carry the league for the foreseeable future.
Last year proved that with Wilson beating Stewart to claim her second MVP. Wilson outlasted Stewart by 32 voting points to become the eighth player ever to win multiple MVPs.
This season won’t be any different, and it may be closer than last. The Aces, like last year, finished 2023 with the league’s best record at 34-6. With the Liberty finishing No. 2 at 32-8, odds are Wilson and Stewart will meet in the WNBA Finals in October.
“I’ve enjoyed how much this (matchup) has grown our game,” Wilson said on Aug. 17. “This is really all eyes on us over the offseason. This is a nice thing to watch because you see it on the men’s side all the time, the rivalries and how people get involved. I think we’re giving the people what they want, but at the same time, we’re doing what we love.”
There is a case to be made for both stars to win another MVP. Wilson would become the fourth player ever — joining Sheryl Swoopes, Lisa Leslie and Lauren Jackson — to win it three times. An MVP trophy for Stewart would be her first since 2018.
A look at the two candidates and how they stacked up:
A’ja Wilson
2023 season: 22.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.2 BPG, 1.4 SPG, 55.7 FG%, 30.7 MPG
It didn’t seem possible that Wilson could top last season.
Her scoring took a dip in 2022, dipping below 20 points per game, but she shot over 50% for the first time in her career. The 1.9 blocks and 1.4 steals earned her Defensive Player of the Year honors for the first time.
One could say 2022 was dominant. There may not be a term to describe 2023.
Wilson has career-highs in points, rebounds and blocks per game. Defensively, she’s on pace to better the 2022 campaign.
Offensively, there may not be a more efficient player in the league than Wilson. Of players who attempted 500 shots and played 1,000 minutes in a season, Wilson’s field goal percentage is the best ever, surpassing Stewart’s 52.9% in 2018.
Wilson is averaging 0.7 minutes more this year, but is operating at peak efficiency despite the league schedule increasing to 40 games from 36.
“There’s not a question in my mind that it’s the person sitting next to me,” point guard Chelsea Gray said Sept. 8 after Wilson scored 30 points in 30 minutes in a 94-73 win over the Phoenix Mercury. “She averages the amount of points she does in a lot less time. If we just go by the numbers … I’m playing with the best player in the league.”
One way that’s helped Wilson, a career 35% 3-point shooter, is drastically cutting down her 3-point attempts. She took 29 this year, making nine of them. She took 572 2-point shots and made 57% of them, a 5% uptick from 2022.
But what turned the tide in favor of Wilson is doing this without Candace Parker, who hasn’t played since July 7 (foot surgery).
Wilson’s numbers exploded with Parker out, averaging 25.4 points and almost 10 rebounds in 22 games.
More impressively, Wilson has averaged 31 minutes in that stretch. Don’t forget that Wilson, in that run, tied the WNBA single-game record of 53 points against Atlanta on Aug. 22.
It’s hindered the overall depth, but the Aces have gone 18-4 without Parker with Wilson playing — mostly — at center, with some small stints at power forward.
“She’s better than she was last year,” coach Becky Hammon said.
Breanna Stewart
2023 season: 23.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 1.5 SPG, 46.5 FG%, 35.5 3P%, 3.8 APG
Meanwhile, in New York, Stewart’s first year with the Liberty has also turned legendary.
The two-time WNBA champion was supposed to see a dip in numbers when signing with New York in the offseason, partnering with Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
The ball still finds Stewart, and then some. The 680 shots she took this year are the most in her career, surpassing last year’s 540. Of those shots, more than one-third (231) have been 3-pointers.
The Liberty take a lot of 3s as is. For context, Ionescu has taken 270 this season and broke the single-season record of 128 makes.
Though the superteam argument would hurt Wilson and Stewart, they’ve both proven valuable defensively. Stewart averaged nine rebounds a season for the third time in her career, two more than last year at four more minutes.
Stewart’s ability to take over a game from anywhere on the court is what makes her special. She can back the defender down into the post, or pull up from 3 without hesitation.
Stewart eclipsed the 40-point mark four times this season — the most in the league. She’s also grabbed double-digit rebounds in three of those games.
When talking about rivalries that can grow the WNBA and get more eyes on the league, these two are viewed as catalysts for a reason.
Head-to-head
The Aces and Liberty split the four-game regular season series; New York won the Commissioner’s Cup over Las Vegas, but that game did not count toward the standings.
Determining the MVP frontrunner would’ve been easier had one player outperformed the other head-to-head. We didn’t get that this year.
Stewart (18 PPG) and Wilson (17.3 PPG) were targeted heavily on defense. Each matchup had someone else pick up the slack offensively — Ionescu was that for the Liberty, while Gray for the Aces.
That’s why it could be seen as frustrating for the Aces that they couldn’t grab one more win against the Liberty and own the tiebreaker. Stewart shot just 35.6% in four games against the Aces. Wilson made 48% of her shots, but had to work for every point against a tall, strong New York frontcourt.
In advanced metrics, they’re also neck-and-neck.
Offensive ratings — an estimate of points scored per 100 possessions when players are on the floor — are nearly identical with Wilson (123) and Stewart (122) leading the two best offenses in the league.
Defensively, per 100 possessions, Wilson (93) has been in a class of her own, with Stewart (96) not far behind.
Win shares are also an important metric in determining the impact of a player to their team’s success. It’s an estimate based on how many wins that player has contributed to. Wilson (10.4) has a narrow edge over Stewart (10.3), but Stewart has a narrow edge in offensive win shares (7.0-6.8), an estimate of wins contributed by that player offensively. Wilson has more defensive win shares (3.5) by a slight margin over Stewart (3.3)
There’s no denying their importance at both ends of the floor. Wilson has the accolades to prove it, but Stewart has taken on a more important defensive responsibility since arriving in New York.
Who has the edge?
When asked to make a case for her superstar following Sunday’s finale against Phoenix, Hammon put it best.
Wilson put up those numbers on the team with the best record in the league with absurd efficiency.
“Don’t penalize her because her coach didn’t play her in a lot of fourth quarters,” Hammon said.
If Wilson did play more minutes, her numbers would be more astronomical. She averages 26.7 points and 11.1 rebounds per 36 minutes while still shooting close to 56% from the floor.
But no matter the competition, Wilson has risen to the occasion. Against the top three defenses, outside of Las Vegas, Wilson has averaged 18.3 points on 52% shooting. Compared to Stewart, who scores 19.4 points but shoots 43.8% to get there.
Against playoff teams, Wilson has averaged 23 points and 9.1 rebounds on 55.6% shooting. Stewart, meanwhile, has 22 points and 9.0 rebounds on 44% shooting.
Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas is also going to get some recognition for leading the Sun to a top-three record. She’s one of the best all-around players in the world, averaging 15.5 points, 10 rebounds and almost eight assists. Without her, the Sun aren’t where they are as the No. 3 seed.
But it’s been a two-woman race all year long, and Wilson ran away with it in the second half. For as much offensive responsibility she took on, Wilson was more valuable and more dominant. Stewart finished with nine more total points than Wilson. She took 79 more shots to do it.
Wilson has been nothing but efficient and dominant. Her reliability on both ends of the floor can’t be matched. She’s more than likely going to win Defensive Player of the Year again.
But it would be a shock if she doesn’t become a three-time MVP by the end of this season.
“The bigger the stage, the more awards and more accolades, she remains humble. That’s a very rare trait to have,” said guard Kelsey Plum of Wilson. “It’s very easy to get arrogant and have your head blown up, but she’s so consistent with who she is as a human being and you know what you’re going to get on and off the court. We have a great culture, and it starts with the franchise player.”
Danny Webster can be reached at 702-259-8814 or [email protected]. Follow Danny on Twitter at twitter.com/DannyWebster21.
