Stephanie Scarbrough / AP
President Joe Biden meets with members of the Culinary Workers Union at Vdara Hotel in Las Vegas, Monday, Feb. 5, 2024.
Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024 | 2 a.m.
Nevada voters have picked the Democrat in each of the last four presidential elections dating to Barack Obama’s victory in 2008 against John McCain of Arizona.
Take 2020, when Joe Biden narrowly defeated incumbent Donald Trump by 30,000 votes here, giving Biden enough electoral votes to propel him into office. It was also razor thin in 2016 when Hillary Clinton carried the state over Trump, 48%-46%
However, in a likely Biden-Trump rematch in November, Nevada voters could be backing the Republican, according to a new Emerson College Polling / KLAS-TV / The Hill poll released Thursday.
The poll, which was conducted Feb. 16-19 and questioned 1,000 would-be voters in Nevada, found that 46% of respondents favored Trump, 40% sided with Biden and 14% said they were undecided.
Emerson additionally found that with third-party candidates on the ballot, Trump’s lead increased to 10 points, 44%-34%. That’s because 6% of those surved supported Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% supported Cornel West and Jill Stein; 13% remained undecided.
The results are similar in neighboring Arizona, another swing state. Emerson’s survey found 46% of Arizonians sided with Trump and 43% support Biden. Biden also won Arizona in 2020.
Emerson Polling said “the data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.”
Nevada will again be a crucial swing state to determine the presidency — a fact both campaigns have long touted.
Trump, in an appearance earlier this month on the Strip, said, “If we win this state, we easily win the election in November.”
The Nevada poll also found that 53% of voters surveyed said Trump’s criminal indictments raised doubt about voting for him. Trump has been charged in four criminal cases, becoming the first former president in the 234-year history of the country to be indicted.
Additionally, 61% of voters say Biden’s age “raises serious doubts in their mind about voting for him.” Biden is 81; Trump 77.
Latino voters in Nevada are split, the poll found. It showed that 44% of voters favored Trump and 41% side with Biden.
The race is also a toss-up with women voters in Nevada, 43% of whom support Biden and 42% Trump. Men break 51%-37% with Trump.
Trump has polled ahead of Biden in the group’s other two surveys in the 12 months leading up to the 2024 election.
In January, Trump’s margin was 2 percentage points with 8% of respondents saying they were undecided. Last November, Trump polled ahead of Biden $46%-39%, with 15% undecided.
The group’s survey also showed Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., polling ahead of Republican challenger Sam Brown, 40%-38% with 22% undecided. Brown must first get through Republican challengers in the June primary to win a place on the November ballot.
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