Season projection: UNLV will go 6-6, and it shouldn’t be a disappointment

Many inside the UNLV football program feel they will be competing for a spot in the expanded college playoffs at the end of the upcoming season.

Sure, for many locals, the thought of the Rebels playing for a national championship is far-fetched because we have witnessed plenty of two-win seasons.

But coach Barry Odom’s Rebels have proved to be different, winning nine games last year to create a never-before-seen excitement for the program.

They aren’t lacking confidence in making another run this upcoming season, saying the goal is to win the conference and therefore become considered for selection in the new 12-team College Football Playoff. They sense their roster is strong enough to do it.

“We have so many goals we want to achieve this year,” Odom said earlier this month at Circa as part of Mountain West Football Media Days. “We’re a mature team. I’ve found it better with this team just to be very open and honest. Let’s not run away or shy away from those expectations. Let’s embrace them because I would much rather be in this position than to not be talked about at all.”

The good news: The Rebels also have the schedule to make some noise.

Games against Kansas, Houston, Syracuse, Oregon State and Boise State will give them an opportunity to build a rock-solid resume to merit consideration for a playoff spot if they can win the Mountain West.

Five automatic bids are awarded to the highest-rated conference champions under the new format, with the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC all but assured of claiming four of the spots. The Mountain West may be the fifth-strongest conference and have a strong argument for the final spot.

The bad news: Navigating that schedule.

That’s why it would be wise to pump the brakes on the expectations. It’s one thing to be optimistic; it's another to be realistic.

Part of being level-headed when dissecting UNLV’s chances is remembering an important fact: The Rebels have never played in consecutive postseason bowl games.

This should change in 2024, but only if the Rebels can finish the season strong. They might have to win their final four games — Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State and UNR — to become bowl eligible.

UNLV will again have some of the best players in the Mountain West, led by record-setting wide receiver Ricky White and linebacker standout Jackson Woodard. White had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards in his maiden UNLV season in 2023, and Woodward was equally unstoppable with 116 tackles. Both will be pros.

UNLV also loaded up in the offseason with transfer players that are expected to make an impact, especially in shoring up the pass defense. The defeats to Boise State in the Mountain West championship game and against Kansas in the bowl game to close last season exposed personnel weaknesses in the secondary that Odom says he addressed in the portal.

He had a great blueprint to sell to recruits in White (Michigan State) and Woodard (Arkansas), who shined at UNLV after light success at major-conference schools.

The next great success story could be Matt Sluka, a dual-threat quarterback from Holy Cross who dominated lower-level competition. It could also be defenders Tony Grimes (North Carolina) or Jalen Catalon (Texas), who will have plenty of opportunities in what needs to be an improved UNLV defense.

But will it be improved enough to reach the playoff?

UNLV would likely need to finish with an 11-1 record or better, including being perfect in the Mountain West, as well as winning the league championship game to be considered. That means just one defeat in nonleague games.

Oddsmakers don’t see that as happening. They set the over-under for UNLV’s win total at seven games.

By my calculations — they are usually off by a few games each year — the Rebels will finish with a 6-6 record. Don't label that as a bad season, because it would get UNLV to a bowl for a second straight season and would include a win against UNR — forever the result that matters most. Here’s how I have their season playing out.

A look at UNLV’s schedule

Guaranteed wins: UNR (Nov. 30), Utah Tech (Sept. 7)

Analysis: For some of us, the only game that matters is still the Fremont Cannon rivalry against Reno. Keeping the rivalry trophy Rebel red signals a successful season — regardless of what happens in the other 11 games.

Guaranteed losses: at Kansas (Sept. 13, ESPN), at Oregon State (Oct. 19)

Analysis: Jason Bean passed for 449 yards and six touchdowns in December when Kansas beat UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, 49-36. Bean was Kansas’ second-stringer. Starter Jaylon Daniels, who missed most of last year with a back injury, is a dual-threat quarterback who will put up big numbers — on UNLV and many others.

Close wins: Fresno State (Sept. 28), at Hawaii (Nov. 9), San Diego State (Nov. 16) and at San Jose State (Nov. 22)

Analysis: Traveling to the islands to face Hawaii is no easy task, especially with the three-hour time difference. UNLV is massively better than Hawaii and ultimately will pull out a tight victory, but it won’t be pretty.

Close losses: at Houston (Aug. 31), Syracuse (Oct. 4), at Utah State (Oct. 11), Boise State (Oct. 25)

Analysis: UNLV will need to close the season with a four-game winning streak in games against Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State and UNR — all winnable contests, especially late in the year when many college rosters are decimated with injury. That’s because the Rebels could lose four straight going into that stretch, with coin flip games against Syracuse, Utah State and Boise State in the middle of the schedule. The projection of a loss to Utah State may surprise some, but don’t forget about the Aggies’ strong homefield advantage.