Winter weather projection: Warmer-than average temperatures across southwestern states

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center is projecting warmer-than average temperatures across southwestern states and drought conditions expanding throughout the Colorado River Basin by the end of January.

La Niña affects winter temperatures and precipitation by impacting the jet stream, which leads to more varying weather conditions, said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational predication branch at the Climate Prediction Center.

The winter outlook takes an important look at temperature and precipitation patterns across the country, said Michael Morgan, NOAA’s assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and precipitation. It provides information to the public but also agriculture industries, energy providers, regional tourism and transportation.

“No two winters are the same,” Morgan said. “Even in a warming world, we continue to see weather extremes manifest in the coldest months…ranging from blizzards and ice storms to the rapid onset of drought.”

There was a strong El Niño in 2023 that brought 1.27 inches of rain and helped Lake Mead water levels rise a little over 11 feet through December and February, said Brian Planz, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Las Vegas. This year, there will be slightly below precipitation for the winter periods and temperatures will be warmer in the Las Vegas area, he said. 

But the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle this year is neutral, meaning neither warm nor cool is in place, Gottschalck said. There will still be a transition to La Niña, but it will be a week shorter duration event with ENSO neutral conditions through the winter.

The 2024 temperature forecast will show warmer than average temperatures for the Southern U.S., in the Great Lakes region, Eastern seaboard, New England and northern Alaska, Gottschalck said. 

The warmer temperatures will be most noticeable in Southwest Texas and along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coast. Cooler than average temperatures will be in southern Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains.

Wetter than average conditions will be in the Great Lakes states, for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as well as in northern and western Alaska whereas drier than average conditions will be along the Southern Plains along the Gulf Coast and Southeast Alaska.

As for the drought conditions this winter, the Climate Prediction Center anticipates widespread modern to extreme drought will persist across much of the Great Plains and portions of the central Rocky Mountains, Gottschalck said.

Above average snowfall is possible for much of the Pacific Northwest, northern and central Rockies and into Southern California depending on how strong the snowstorms are, Gottschalck said.

“It would favor, hopefully, an increased snowpack by the time we get into the spring months or later spring months,” Gottschalck said.

The winter outlook is for December 2024 through February 2025, according to a NOAA press release. La Niña conditions are expected to develop later this fall and lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern states warmer and drier.

NOAA invests in weather and climate forecasting technologies and infrastructure that service the needs of the communities and businesses, Morgan said. In September, NOAA invested $100 million for a high-performance computer system to enhance forecasting abilities.

“This advancement is essential for making longer term predictions, like the winter outlook,” Morgan said.