What to watch and how to bet UFC 272

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 5, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The mixed martial arts community is locked into a debate over whether UFC 272 is poised for success from a box-office perspective.

It was already the rare pay-per-view card without a title fight because of the grudge match between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal, but also lost its planned co-main event earlier this week. That came as a result up-and-coming lightweight contender Rafael Fiziev testing positive for COVID-19 and being forced to pull out of a fight against former champion Rafael dos Anjos.

Whether UFC 272 hits its once-expected sales figures might be a valid question, but there’s no doubt it’s going to be a smash hit in the sports books. Every numbered event means big business from a betting perspective locally, especially the ones held at T-Mobile Arena.

Action is inevitable, so Talking Points might as well try to help and find spots to attack on the betting board in advance of Saturday night. I’ll break down the three fights at the top of the card from a betting perspective and find a few other areas to attack in what will amount to an extension of the weekend wagers column.

The season debut of this year’s revamped weekend wagers came last week, and the UFC appropriately and frustratingly brought the only winner. I’ll be back Saturday with a full betting column covering the other sports, but in the meantime, let’s dive exclusively into the fighting odds.

Read below for bets on six UFC 272 fights. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side at publication time in Las Vegas. Results will be logged as part of the weekend wagers records.

Main Event: Colby Covington -105 to win by decision over Jorge Masvidal (Boyd Sports)

$210 to win $200

Covington and Ben Askren are not as similar as those talking themselves into Masvidal having a chance would lead you to believe. Yes, they’re both wrestlers but they channel that background differently. The now-retired Askren was more one-dimensional, relying almost exclusively on takedowns once he got to the higher reaches of mixed martial arts. Covington is more well-rounded and more likely to clinch Masvidal up along the cage than smother him on the canvas. Masvidal’s four-second knockout of Askren was a once-in-a-lifetime-type moment anyway. Calling for something like that to happen again is not practical.

Masvidal very likely will have his moments, but 25 minutes is a long time to be locked into the octagon with a younger, better fighter who has clear advantages in almost every area.

Co-Main Event: Rafael dos Anjos -155 vs. Renato Moicano (William Hill)

$155 to win $100

Which is tougher: Making a comeback after not fighting for 16 months or Taking a bout on five days notice? I’m banking on the latter, and it’s more or less the only reason I’m taking the favorite in the 160-pound catchweight co-main event. It’s important to note that the fight is five rounds, and dos Anjos has spent a whole training camp preparing for the grueling extra 10 minutes. Moicano has gotten no such luxury and reportedly had just recently returned to his native Brazil and been out of training since his win at UFC 271 in Houston last month. Under ideal circumstances, the younger Moicano would be worth a look at a plus-price against the former champion but this is far from that. This is a good spot for Dos Anjos to have a vintage performance and wear his opponent down.    

Featured Fight: Bryce Mitchell -150 vs. Edson Barboza (BetMGM)

$300 to win $200

This is a big step-up in competition for Mitchell, a product of the 27^th season of The Ultimate Fighter, but one that’s advantageous from a matchup perspective. Mitchell is exactly the type of aggressive wrestler that should give the veteran striker Barboza problems. Barboza has fought the best of the best, and beaten many of them with an electric striking style when given space. Mitchell won’t give him that space. As long as the moment isn’t too big for Mitchell on his first pay-per-view main card, he should take another step up the featherweight rankings.

Main Card Opener: Sergey Spivak +320 to win by submission over Greg Hardy (Boyd Sports)

$75 to win $240

The controversial former NFL defensive end hasn’t shown enough progression in his three years in the UFC to expect him to beat a more seasoned mixed martial artist like Spivak. There’s always the fear of Hardy catching any opponent and scoring an early knockout, but that appears to be his only path to victory. His cardio has consistently faltered from there, and he should be outclassed on the ground against “the Polar Bear.” It would obviously be volumes safer to just take Spivak to win at as low as -190 (Circa Sports) or even take by any stoppage at +110. But the picks so far have been chalky enough, so I’ll shoot for a higher return in what looks like the Spivak’s likeliest method of victory.

ESPN Featured Preliminary Bout: Jamie Mullarkey +136 vs. Jalin Turner (Boyd Sports)

$150 to win $204

Turner leveled up his last time out, upsetting Uros Medic via first-round submission at UFC 266. Now it might be Mullarkey’s turn to level up. The Australian up-and-coming lightweight has shown off some slick striking chops his last couple fights and has now trained with featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski to supplement it. “The Tarantuala” is also game on the feet and no easy out but it feels like this line would be closer to pick’em if he hadn’t outclassed Medic the last time out. That’s still where it should be. This is a 50/50 fight where Mullarkey arguably has a higher upside.

Early Preliminary Opener: Michal Oleksiejczuk +175 vs. Dustin Jacoby (William Hill)

$150 to win $262.50

Speaking of 50/50 fights masquerading as something else by the betting odds, that’s exactly how the afternoon will start at T-Mobile Arena. Jacoby is on the hottest stretch of his career in going 6-0-1 in his last seven fights but the run has inflated his value in the market. He has no major edge on Oleksiejczuk if looking at his career as a whole. And like Mullarkey, Oleksiejczuk may have the better ceiling considering he’s six years younger. Oleksiejczuk also might be the best fighter Jacoby has faced during his current win streak. This could go either way to make the big plus-price quite attractive.

Weekend wagers column year to date: 1-3, -$357.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 243-233-1, $6,160.93 

Previous pending wagers: Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters ($100 to win $1,200); Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament ($100 to win $5,000); Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or