Weekend wagers: Supersizing with seven bets on seven sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, April 10, 2021 | 2 a.m.

It’s not chasing, it’s just increasing.

The steady winning wasn’t going to last forever, and sure enough, hard times have found the weekend wagers column with two straight losing entries. In an effort to battle back, I’m betting everything — dipping into even more sports than normal.

It’s a busy weekend anyway so seven bets across seven sports feels more appropriate than the traditional five bets across five sports. From the Masters to UFC on ABC, from baseball to auto racing, I’m tackling everything to get the tide turned back in the right direction.

Read this week’s weekend wagers column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (9-4-1, $335.11): Bryson DeChambeau -140 head-to-head vs. Collin Morikawa in third round of The Masters (William Hill)

Do you go with DeChambeau’s driving distance or Morikawa’s approach game? For me, it’s the former – especially at Augusta National. DeChambeau’s overpowering style — and also the finesse putting in his arsenal — always seemed to be a natural fit for The Masters, which is what made his struggles at the event dating back to last November so baffling. They might be gone now. DeChambeau posted a 5-under par score Friday and could get near the top of the leaderboard with a similar performance Saturday. I wouldn’t count him out. Morikawa is currently ahead by a stroke and capable of great things on his own, but as far as this event, it seems made for DeChambeau.

Mixed martial arts (7-9, $1): Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland over 2.5 rounds at UFC on ABC 2 -145 (Boyd Gaming)

The line of this afternoon fight card’s main event, which is trending toward Vettori as a 4-to-1 favorite, is disrespectful to Holland. Yes, he’s coming off a loss less than a month ago to Derek Brunson but Holland's skillset isn’t this much worse than Vettori’s. Holland might be worth a stab if the line reaches +300, even though he’s likely to lose. The better way to approach the fight, therefore, might be playing the total. This middleweight bout may not reach the scorecards, but Vettori and Holland are more evenly-matched than the market is indicating. They should each have their moments early and at least be able to neutralize each other for a while.

MLB (1-1, $19): Tampa Bay Rays +108 vs. New York Yankees (Circa Sports)

The Rays’ bats broke out to smoke the Yankees on Friday, and there’s not any reason why they can’t do the same again on Saturday. Tampa Bay is slightly undervalued after a rough start that saw it lose four straight games, but that’s a mistake — With its combination of talent and smarts, the Rays will contend all year. Saturday’s starter Chris Archer isn’t what he once but he’s also not as bad as the four runs he gave up to the Marlins in three innings in his first appearance of the season. Archer is easier to trust than New York starter Domingo German, who got shelled just as bad in his first start, a loss to the Blue Jays. The Rays are a strong take at plus money here.

NHL (8-4, $342.42): Montreal Canadiens -128 vs. Winnipeg Jets (Circa)

Montreal lost to Winnipeg 4-2 on Thursday night, but it was a tough spot where the Canadiens were playing their third game in four days. They also outplayed the Jets, racking up more expected goals and high-danger chances but Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck, as he’s wont to do, stole the victory. That’s always a risk and could happen again, but the probability is lower than this line indicates. Montreal’s underlying metrics are too far ahead of Winnipeg’s on the season to ignore. Let’s hope the Canadiens made the most of their day off to rest and come out playing up to their typical profile — one that should be too efficient for the Jets.

NBA (5-6, -$136.37): Sacramento Kings +12.5 vs. Utah Jazz (Station Casinoss)

I’m currently reassessing the gimmick of betting something out of every major market today. The NBA is no fun to gamble on right now, certainly not locking in plays the day before. Last-minute sitouts and gametime decisions are the norm, making half the battle finding a game where both teams will be at full strength and motivated to play their best to evaluate with the season-long data accrued. This game is not that, though it might present an edge with the situation. The Jazz are playing their fourth game in six days and the previous three have all been against fellow playoff teams — the Blazers, Suns and Mavericks. They’re unlikely to play with the same intensity against the lowly Kings and coach Quin Snyder may freely dip into his bench more often to give his starters some rest. Sacramento, meanwhile, is determined to at least get into the postseason play-in series and will be going all-out. It’s lost two straight – to Detroit and Minnesota of all teams — but Sacramento is better than that and will be ready to show it against Utah.   

NASCAR (9-9, $101.15): Joey Logano +110 head-to-head vs. Ryan Blaney at Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Logano’s numbers seem out of whack this week at Martinsville. The former Cup champion has cleaned up in situations like this throughout his career, on short tracks and in 750 horsepower packages. He also had the best average running position in the field at Phoenix — the only track even somewhat comparable to Martinsville so far this year. At a plus-price, he might be worth taking against anyone in the field. Logano +130 against Martin Truex was awfully tempting but the latter has arguably been the best driver in the Cup series this year, and as long-time readers may know, regularly haunts me. So I’ll take Logano to best his teammate instead. Blaney has a chance to win this race as well, but it’s a little less than Logano’s. I’d make Logano -120 in this matchup, and 30 cents of value is too much to pass up.

College basketball (1-5-1, -$409.09): Texas to win the 2022 NCAA Tournament at 50-to-1 (BetMGM)

That’s right — I’m so frustrated with how this year’s tournament finished that I’m already looking ahead to next year. This is the earliest I’ve ever started building a futures portfolio in college basketball, and it’s solely because I couldn’t believe this number. The Longhorns would be more appropriately priced in the 15- or 20-to-1 range. They’re losing some key pieces off this year’s Big 12 Tournament championship team but still return a number of highly recruited players, and more important, add one of the best coaches in the nation in Chris Beard. The former Texas Tech (and UNLV, kinda) coach is assembling what might be the best staff in the nation and should easily put a final couple pieces together through late recruiting  and the transfer market to build an immediate contender. The Longhorns’ 2022 floor looks to be a similar No. 3 seed to the one they earned this year and a price twice as low as this. It’s never too early to start betting when bargains like this are out there.

Weekend betting column year to date: 112-106, $2,388.84

Previous pending future wagers: Brooklyn Nets to win NBA Finals +505; Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745; Utah Jazz to win Northwest division +250; Philadelphia 76ers to win Atlantic division +300; Boston Celtics under 45.5 wins; Memphis Grizzlies over 31.5 wins; Dallas Mavericks to win Southwest division -145; Colorado Avalanche to win West Division +150; All preseason NHL bets

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.