ASSOCIATED PRESS
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels, right, sits in the dugout with fellow Phillies starting pitchers from left; Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Joe Blanton. The hype surrounding Philadelphia’s pitchers has found its way into Las Vegas sports books.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011 | 6:30 p.m.
MLB Regular Season Win Totals
- Arizona — 72.5
- Atlanta — 88
- Baltimore — 76.5
- Boston — 95.5
- Chicago Cubs — 82.5
- Chicago White Sox — 86
- Cincinnati — 86.5
- Cleveland — 71.5
- Colorado — 87
- Detroit — 85
- Florida — 82.5
- Houston — 71.5
- Kansas City — 68.5
- Los Angeles Angels — 82.5
- Los Angeles Dodgers — 83.5
- Milwuakee — 85.5
- Minnesota — 85.5
- New York Mets — 76
- New York Yankees — 91.5
- Oakland — 84.5
- Philadelphia — 96.5
- Pittsburgh — 67
- San Diego — 75
- San Francisco — 87.5
- Seattle — 69.5
- St. Louis — 83.5
- Tampa Bay — 84
- Texas — 86.5
- Toronto — 76.5
- Washington — 72.5
- Numbers from The Las Vegas Hilton Superbook
More than 2,500 miles away from the much-maligned welcome party the Miami Heat threw this summer, the franchise’s so-called “Big Three” set off another event.
The uniting of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh sent the betting public sprinting toward Las Vegas sports books with one word — “over.” Too many people ignored questions surrounding the super team —yes, there were questions — and bought into the ESPN-bred hype with their own cash.
The Heat’s regular season over/under win total reached as high as 65 games in Las Vegas. It was a ridiculous mark and a grossly inflated number that Miami had little chance of actually eclipsing.
I can’t help but feel some are making the same mistake heading into tomorrow’s start of the Major League Baseball season. In this case, the Philadelphia Phillies are the equivalent of the Miami Heat.
Philadelphia’s starting rotation has enough dangerous arms to take over a small country. The Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt quartet has gotten the Sports Illustrated cover, the ESPN attention and the boastful teammates promising a run at history.
Philadelphia has also attracted an over/under win total of 96.5 games, the highest of any of the 30 MLB franchises, at the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook. Fade the Phillies. Bet under.
Not expecting the Phillies to live up to unrealistic expectations is only one reason to take the under. There’s better evidence and smarter people pointing in that direction, too.
Baseball Prospectus annually releases its statistical forecast, PECTOA, to much fanfare. PECTOA has garnered a reputation over the years as one of the most accurate predictors of a team’s record.
It came as no surprise that PECTOA pinpointed Philadelphia as the team with the biggest differential between its Vegas win total and projected victories. The forecast calls for the Phillies to win 89 games — or 7.5 wins less than what’s posted at the Hilton.
Other teams with high margins are the New York Mets, the Baltimore Orioles, the Cincinnati Reds and the Los Angeles Angels. Baseball Prospectus likes New York and Baltimore to win 81 games apiece, well above the respective 76 and 76.5 wins posted at the Hilton.
The forecast isn’t as high on the Reds or the Angels. The Hilton offers the Reds wins over/under at 86.5, while PECTOA says they will come in at 82-80. The Angels have an 82.5 win total, but are expected to finish with only 78 victories in the projections.
I’d skip betting under on the Angels and over on the Orioles, but the other two suggestions offer some promise.
Despite going 79-83 last year, the Mets actually had a positive run differential. The burden of overbearing expectations isn’t looming over the Queens-based franchise for the first time in recent memory. Seeing the Mets get to .500 sounds believable.
In the National League Central, three different champions have emerged the last three years. This year should keep the streak going. The Reds overachieved a year ago and it’s hard to believe their rotation will lead them to 87 victories.
To prove I’m more than a PECTOA drone, I’ll offer two win total bets of my own. Take Milwaukee to win more than 86.5 games and the New York Yankees to go over 91.5 victories.
The Brewers should win the NL Central comfortably, especially if they get off to a hot start before newly acquired ace Zack Greinke returns from a pickup basketball injury. The Yankees have won more than 91.5 games in nine of the past 10 seasons. It’s simply too low of a mark for a team with a lineup of that caliber.
To review here are Talking Points’ five MLB regular season win total plays: Philadelphia under 96.5, Cincinnati under 86.5, New York Mets over 76, New York Yankees over 91.5 and Milwaukee over 86.5.
Maybe we’ll revisit them going into the playoffs next October. In the meantime, enjoy the games and find the most value.
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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