Bowl Pick’em Against The Spread National Championship Edition

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2012 | 2:05 a.m.

The time has come where it’s necessary to approach the BCS National Championship Game with a new betting strategy.

Over the last five years, I’ve been an ardent supporter of the “bet on the SEC team” system. The SEC, of course, has won each of the last five national championships and covered the title game spread in the process.

The SEC is 7-0 straight up and against the spread since college football began holding an official national championship game in 1998. The conference will be 8-1 in both categories after Monday.

SEC West foes LSU and Alabama clash in New Orleans for the crystal ball trophy. Which team is the blog’s official pick? Scroll down to find out.

Thanks for reading throughout this entire process. Here’s to ending on a high note by hopefully finishing bowl season profitable. After 32 of 35 bowl games, my current record against the spread stands at 17-14-1.

BBVA Compass Bowl: SMU (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh; over/under: 46.5

10:00 Saturday, Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala., ESPN

The line has fallen as many points, as Pittsburgh originally opened around a touchdown favorite. The shift is justified. Pittsburgh is without a coach — Todd Graham left to take the same post at Arizona State — and standout running back Ray Graham. The Mustangs are also dealing with some injuries and leading rusher Zach Line will miss the game. Neither team looks attractive in one of the worst bowl games of the season.

Pick: SMU +3.5

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State (-1) vs. Northern Illinois; over/under: 65

6:00 Sunday, Land Pebbles Stadium in Mobile, Ala., ESPN

Rain is forecasted in the land of leprechauns, so the team who can run the ball better might have an advantage. That’s Northern Illinois. This is a matchup of conference champions, as the Huskies won the Mid-American Conference and the Red Wolves tore through the Sun Belt. The two teams look nearly equal, but this bowl season has shown the MAC as the better conference. The MAC has surprisingly gone 3-1 with two of Northern Illinois’ victims, Ohio and Toledo, grabbing victories and another, Western Michigan, playing Purdue tough.

Pick: Northern Illinois +1

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (-1.5) vs. LSU; over/under: 40

5:30 Monday, SuperDome in New Orleans, ESPN

The best bet might not come on either side. It could come on the total, where sports books have over-adjusted for the not-so-thrilling 9-6 game in these two teams’ first meeting. Both teams scoring three touchdowns isn’t out of the question. In fact, it will probably happen. Glance at the over. When it comes down to the game, Alabama has a lot of advantages working in its favor. Nick Saban over Les Miles. Trent Richardson over Spencer Ware. Crimson Tide defense, ranked No. 1 in the nation, over the Tigers defense, ranked No. 2 in the nation. It would take an extremely spirited effort for any team in the country to beat these guys twice in the same year. LSU has looked like and could be that special group, but don’t bet on it.

Pick: Alabama -1.5

Bowl Season Record: 20-14-1 (FINAL)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.