NBA Finals in Las Vegas: Cavaliers vs. Warriors betting odds, picks and preview

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, June 2, 2016 | 2 a.m.

For as much talk about what has changed for the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers since they met in the NBA Finals last year, even more has stayed the same.

No one is heavily disputing LeBron James’ notion that the Cavaliers are “better built” for the 2016 finals after losing in six games last year by virtue of having both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love healthy. Cleveland is undoubtedly improved.

So are the Warriors.

It’s with those dual developments that the NBA Finals odds arrive at a virtually identical spot as last year ahead of game 1, which airs at 6 p.m. tonight on ABC. Golden State enters as a minus-210 (risking $2.10 to win $1) favorite to win the series with Cleveland coming back at plus-180 (risking $1 to win $1.80).

In 2015, the Warriors were minus-220 in the Finals with the Cavaliers at plus-190.

On both occasions, the Cavaliers narrowed the odds from what they would have been coming into the playoffs with a more impressive path to the Finals.

Golden State had the historic regular season, setting the record with 73 wins, but Cleveland’s postseason is only a notch below.

The Cavaliers have gone 12-2 straight-up with a 12.6 average margin of victory, which ranks fifth all-time. They’ve actually proven slightly less profitable than their opponent, as the Cavaliers’ are 9-5 against the spread to the Warriors’ 11-6.

But Golden State has already eclipsed its over/under 5.5 losses in the playoffs, with its point differential falling off more than 4 points per game from the regular season at plus-6.4. Whereas the defining moment of Cleveland’s postseason was its 10-game winning streak before dropping two in Toronto, Golden State’s was climbing out of a 3-1 hole against Oklahoma City last round.

The Thunder were as high as a minus-275 favorite to advance to the Finals after Game 4 last week, meaning the Warriors’ rally was one of the only true surprises of the playoffs so far.

It’s fitting that both conference’s top-seeded teams wound up in the Finals for the first time in eight years, because these playoffs have been among the chalkiest of all-time from a betting perspective. Favorites have gone 47-32 against the spread.

Golden State benefited from the only two series upsets, facing Portland and Oklahoma City instead of the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio. The Clippers and the Spurs projected to have tighter odds before the playoffs began.

The Thunder are still power-rated much higher than anyone the Cavaliers have faced in months. Deciding how, or if, to rectify the discrepancy in competition encountered by Golden State and Cleveland largely informs which side a bettor will take.

Well, that and which team he or she thinks will shoot better. Golden State once felt like a given in that department, but the postseason has complicated matters.

The Warriors have shot more poorly on both 2- and 3-pointers, with the knee strain Stephen Curry suffered in the first round likely the source of the dip in effectiveness. The Cavaliers have gone the exact opposite, raising their 3-point shooting percentage from .362 in the regular season to .434 in the postseason.

Love, Irving, J.R. Smith and Channing Frye are combining to connect on an obscene 47.2 percent of their attempts beyond the arc. While determining what team has the offensive advantage is debatable, the defensive edge is much clearer.

Golden State gives up a somewhat significant 1.4 points less per 100 possessions than Cleveland. It’s a big reason why the betting lines lean toward the Warriors.

Just like last year.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.