College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 2

AP Photo/George Bridges

Houston cornerback Brandon Wilson (26) is cheered by the bench as he returns a missed field goal for a touchdown against Oklahoma in the second half of Houston’s 33-23 victory in an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 3, 2016, in Houston.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 10, 2016 | 2 a.m.

One of the great things about Las Vegas during football season is that there’s really no such thing as a down week.

While the rest of the college football world is somewhat shunning Week 2 as second-rate compared to last week’s historically significant Week 1, bettors are as enthusiastic as ever.

A glossed-over nonconference matchup like Arizona State and Texas Tech can be every bit as thrilling as Houston vs. Oklahoma with a wager on the right side. Heck, Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama will almost certainly be a better conference game than last Saturday’s first game between Georgia Tech and Boston College.

At least one of the Sun Belt Conference teams figures to cover, and make somewhere around the half the game’s bettors happy.

Whereas Week 1 was all about applying knowledge and information gleaned in the offseason, Week 2 expands on that with a game to throw into the sample. Part of the challenge for gamblers is figuring out if the market reacted properly to a team’s 60 minutes of football or compensated too far in one direction or the other.

The methodology changes; the purpose stays the same: profit. There’s no place like Las Vegas this time of the year.

Check below for Week 2 of college football by the odds with previews and picks on the 10 biggest games of the week separated into three different confidence categories with extra selections at the end. The blog has gone 10-3-1 against the spread on the year.

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Penn State plus-5 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 48; 9 a.m. on ESPN

The Keystone State’s two most revered college football programs picked a perfect time to resume their rivalry after a dormant 16 years.

This season feels critical for both the Panthers and the Nittany Lions. Expectations are raised in western Pennsylvania after coach Pat Narduzzi managed to finish second in the ACC Coastal division last year.

Pittsburgh brings back two All-ACC caliber running backs in James Conner, who overcame cancer that was discovered after suffering a knee injury before last season, and Qadree Ollison, who thrived in Conner’s place. But the one thing Penn State has done consistently well in two seasons under coach James Franklin, who’s feeling the pressure with now having a full allotment of scholarships for the first time, is stop the run.

And the central Pennsylvanians could be better than ever at slowing ground games in 2016 by bringing back their entire linebacking corps of Jason Cabinda, Nyeem Wartman-White and Brandon Bell.

Both teams looked similarly middling in their openers, as Penn State beat Kent State 33-13 to not cover the 24-point spread and Pittsburgh shut down Villanova 28-7 but failed to beat minus-28.

Guess: Under 48 points
AP Photo/Michael Noble Jr.

Western Kentucky plus-29 at Alabama, over/under: 61.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2

If there’s a dream matchup on this week’s slate of games, it’s the Hilltoppers’ scamper down I-65 to take on the Crimson Tide. It’s just that no one realizes that this is possibly the rare contest between the best Power Five conference team and the best Group of Five conference team.

The former distinction feels hardly debatable for Alabama after it starched USC 52-6 as 12-point favorites behind four touchdowns from freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts. Calling Western Kentucky the top Group of Five team would be a disservice to Houston and Boise State.

But leaving the Hilltoppers out of the conversation would be equally insulting. They’re coming off a Conference USA Championship in a year where they went 12-2 straight-up and 9-5 against the spread.

Despite returning only 11 starters — the same number as Alabama — Western Kentucky managed 649 yards in an opening night 46-14 blowout of Rice as 19-point favorites. South Florida transfer quarterback Mike White leads the nation in passing after one week with 517 yards.

Western Kentucky finished first nationally last year on offense last year with 7.1 yards per play. Alabama was the most efficient defense, giving up only 3.9 yards per play.

Getting these two teams on the field together is more intriguing than it may appear at first glance.

Lean: Western Kentucky plus-29
Kentucky plus-17 at Florida, over/under: 48.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

Florida somehow found itself exempt from the criticism that washed over the SEC after Week 1.

National celebration commenced after the conference that has reigned over college football for the last several years went a disappointing 6-6 straight-up and 5-7 against the spread. But not all losses are disgraceful. And not all wins are glorious.

The Gators’ 24-7 victory over UMass was, in fact, worse than many of the SEC’s ridiculed defeats. Florida failed to beat the point spread by 17.5 points against an inexperienced team that came into the season rated dead last among Football Bowl Subdivision programs by Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings.

Kentucky, on the other hand, fell 12.5 points short of covering in a 44-35 loss to a Southern Miss team that returned a lot of pieces after winning its division last season. The Wildcats gained more than 8 yards per play in a strong debut from sophomore quarterback Drew Barker, but made too many mistakes and allowed too many long drives.

The Gators showed much less offensive competency with only 4.5 yards per play under the direction of their new quarterback, sophomore Luke Del Rio.

Kentucky hasn’t beaten Florida in 30 years, a streak it’s inched close to snapping to last two years with a pair of losses by a combined 10 points.

Play: Kentucky plus-17
AP Photo/Ron Jenkins

Arkansas plus-7.5 at TCU, over/under: 58.5; 4 p.m. on ESPN

It’s difficult to imagine anyone rushing to the betting window to back Arkansas after its dreary 21-20 escape as 21-point favorites against Louisiana Tech in week 1.

Someone did. TCU posted as a 10-point favorite after last week’s game until bettors immediately bought Arkansas to put the line down to 7.5.

They could have been acting on a strong middling opportunity, as TCU was a 4.5-point favorite in this spot all summer as part of the game of the year lines. Based on the last two seasons, it’s not a bad idea to be on either side.

TCU and Arkansas were two of the best teams in the nation to bet on as both have posted 18-8 against the spread records in the last two seasons. The Razorbacks have covered their last six as road underdogs, whereas the Horned Frogs have gone 11-2 against the spread at home over the last two seasons.

TCU coach Gary Patterson is 57-36 against the spread all-time at home. Arkansas coach Bret Bielema is 24-19 against the spread all-time as an underdog.

Arguments for both sides exist in bulk.

Guess: TCU minus-7.5
AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

Iowa State plus-16 at Iowa, over/under: 51; 4:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network

With the discrepancy in public expectations for the two teams that annually battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, it’s no surprise that the series carries its highest line since 2007.

Bettors pounded Iowa to win more than 8.5 games, its preseason over/under win total. They wouldn’t even touch Iowa State to go over 3.5 victories.

Last week seemingly confirmed some of the market’s suspicions, as Iowa State lost 25-20 to Northern Iowa as 9.5-point favorites. Iowa didn’t cover either, but easily got past Miami (Ohio) 45-21 as 27.5-point favorites.

Hawkeye running backs Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels combined for 204 rushing yards, four times what Iowa State managed as a team. The long-term hope is that new Iowa State coach Matt Campbell turns around the offense, as he made Toledo into one the nation’s highest-scoring programs over the last four years.

Playing in Iowa City might not be the place where he pieces it together, as the Hawkeyes’ defense is the most experienced part of their team. Defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson and linebacker Josey Jewell particularly shut down the run last year in leading Iowa to a 12-2 season.

But that was the first time it got to nine victories in six years, and it gave this many points on only three occasions, going 1-2 against the spread. Nine years ago when Iowa laid 17 against Iowa State, the Cyclones came out with a shocking 15-13 victory.

Play: Iowa State plus-16
L.E. Baskow

BYU plus-3.5 at Utah, over/under: 45; 4:30 p.m. on Fox

What happened in Vegas has stayed with college football’s Holy War.

As if the rivalry needed any extra hostility, both sides still feel a little sore over what transpired in the 2015 Las Vegas Bowl — especially BYU. The Cougars lost 35-28 despite nearly doubling the Utes’ offensive production, and holding them without a point for the final three quarters.

BYU’s undoing came with a trio of turnovers in the first quarter that Utah turned into points. The Cougars have mostly the same personnel with 16 returning starters, while most of the Utes’ core were backups in the win that extended their winning streak over their biggest rival to five games.

BYU hasn’t covered in the last four despite often seeing line moves in its favor. The Cougars closed a 2.5-point underdog after opening plus-3 in the bowl game, and bettors are back on them early in this season.

They’ve trimmed down to plus-3 at most sports this time around following a last-second victory over Arizona in Phoenix. The dramatic win featured the return of quarterback Taysom Hill, who went 21-for-29 with a touchdown in his first action since injuring his foot last year.

Lean: BYU plus-3.5
Tennessee minus-11 vs. Virginia Tech in Bristol, Tenn., over/under: 54.5; 5 p.m. on ABC

The biggest game in college football history, in terms of attendance, was almost the biggest letdown of the early college football season.

The 150,000 fans who will fill Bristol Motor Speedway — which is almost exactly in between Blacksburg, Va. and Knoxville, Tenn. — would have been watching an 0-1 Tennessee team if Appalachian State wouldn’t have missed an extra point. The Volunteers eked out a 20-13 victory in overtime as 21-point favorites over the Mountaineers.

The Hokies weren’t all that impressive either as 31-point favorites, playing sloppily by committing four turnovers in a 36-14 victory over Football Championship Subdivision Liberty. The typical kneejerk reaction emerged on both sides, as detractors called Tennessee overrated and declared it would take new coach Justin Fuente more time than anticipated at Virginia Tech.

This ignores that both teams were probably guilty of looking forward to, and perhaps even preparing for, this premier non-conference clash. Both the Volunteers’ and Hokies’ offense even looked vanilla, with the teams likely saving newer flavors for each other.

Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs had 146 rushing attempts for 671 yards last year, but barely ran the ball at all against Appalachian State. Virginia Tech’s junior college transfer quarterback, Jerod Evans, did rack up 267 yards of total offense but will go up against a much stingier defense at the race track.

Guess: Tennessee minus-11
AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Texas Tech plus-3 at Arizona State, over/under: 79.5; 7 p.m. on Fox Sports 1

No game may loom larger than this to sports books’ daily bottom lines by the time Saturday night rolls around.

With Texas Tech one of the public’s most popular plays on the board early in the week, several parlays project to be tied to the Red Raiders. As if that wasn’t enough, bettors regularly load up on Texas Tech games to go over the total.

It worked out exceedingly well last year, as bookmakers couldn’t add points to the over/under fast enough with Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading his team to a 10-3 record to the over. Mahomes has three of his four top receivers back this year — Devin Lauderdale, Ian Sadler and Reginald Davis —and they promptly helped put up 69 points in an opening-week win over Stephen F. Austin.

Arizona State comes off as a likely victim to the Red Raiders based on last year when it ranked outside of the top 100 in the nation by giving up more than 6 yards per play. Coach Todd Graham rebuilt the Sundevils’ defense, however, with the secondary supposed to be a strength.

It won’t take long to find out whether there’s any truth to that in this matchup.

Lean: Arizona State minus-3
AP Photo/Young Kwak

Washington State plus-11.5 at Boise State, over/under: 74; 7:15 p.m. on ESPN2

If the odds are to be believed, then the toughest game of Boise State’s season became twice as easy after last week’s results.

The Broncos’ shortest line in the games of the year market over the summer was this weekend against the Cougars, where they were listed as 6-point favorites. Nothing sends a team’s point spreads shooting up like a loss to a FCS opponent, which Washington State fell victim to for the second straight year.

The Cougars lost 45-42 to Eastern Washington as 27.5-point favorites last week, reminiscent of 2015 when Portland State overcame a spread of plus-30 to beat them 24-17. They bounced back the next week to upset Rutgers on the road and start of a 9-1 against the spread run.

It’s hard to count out a similar rebound this season with the two keys, quarterback Luke Falk and receiver Gabe Marks, in the same roles. Marks had 10 receptions for 108 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Washington, similar week 1 production to Boise State star receiver Thomas Sperbeck, who put up 130 yards and a touchdown off of six catches.

Boise State crushed Louisiana-Lafayette 45-10 as 18.5-point favorites in what was supposed to be a tune-up for its toughest game of the season. The betting market no longer says Washington State qualifies.

Lean: Washington State plus-11.5
AP Photo/Eric Jamison

California plus-7 at San Diego State, over/under: 62; 7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network

The betting line has shifted 20 points since these teams met almost exactly a year ago. The Aztecs are hoping the result changes even more drastically.

Three weeks before San Diego State started the nation’s current second-best win streak of 11 games, it was blown out at California. The Golden Bears were 13-point favorites, and easily secured the cover with a 35-7 win.

San Diego State gave up more than 30 points twice more in consecutive weeks, but since then has only surrendered 10 points per game. A linebacking corps of Calvin Munson, Ronnie Lakalaka and local Randy Ricks held New Hampshire to 141 total yards in a 31-0 blowout as 31-point favorites last week.

San Diego State’s secondary must prove as capable against California. Behind transfer quarterback Davis Webb, the Golden Bears put up 630 yards in a 51-31 victory as 20-point favorites over Hawaii in Australia.

The betting market came away impressed, as it’s driven this line down from 7.5 to put California right with Webb’s former team, Texas Tech, as a late Saturday night public underdog.

Guess: San Diego State minus-7
Rogelio V. Solis / AP

Extra points

Mississippi State minus-6.5 vs. South Carolina Nice spot to buy low on Mississippi State, a team that still has more talent and depth than South Carolina despite losing to South Alabama. This line is likely a point or two higher if the Bulldogs convert on a 28-yard kick to hold off the Jaguars last week.

Georgia Southern minus-13.5 at South Alabama Mississippi State put up 239 rushing yards and averaged 7 yards per carry against South Alabama — and Georgia Southern runs the ball even better. The week after the Jaguars pulled off a big upset last year, over San Diego State, they lost 63-13 to a mediocre North Carolina State team.

East Carolina plus-5.5 vs. North Carolina State Scottie Montgomery was one of the better under-the-radar coaching hires of the offseason. He’ll have his evenly-matched team amped to notch a three-game winning streak against its nearby rival for the first time since the 1990s.

Northern Illinois plus-15 at South Florida This line is a handful of points too high, and the first sign that the Bulls’ 11-3 against the spread run over the last two years is reverberating in sports books. Their power ratings are now unjustly bloated.

Ball State plus-17.5 at Indiana The Hoosiers had one of week 1’s most misleading scores, as it took a three-touchdown fourth quarter to cover against Florida International in a 34-13 victory. Ball State is always motivated for this shot at an in-state big brother, and it’s showed with three straight outright victories in the series.