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October 23, 2017

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Vegas Play of the Day: Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor

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Steve Marcus

Floyd Mayweather Jr. and UFC lightweight champion Conor McGregor of Ireland pose during a news conference at the MGM Grand Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2017.

We’ve entered the fourth season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won back-to-back titles in the 2015-2016 and 2016-17 seasons, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015.

Floyd Mayweather by KO, TKO or DQ at minus-160: $560 to win $350

It’s too bad the option to isolate just Mayweather by TKO isn’t available for a better price, because that’s by far the most likely way this fight ends. It would be a big surprise if Mayweather knocked out McGregor cold.

It also feels like a long shot that McGregor, who’s not used to the 36-minute length of a boxing match and has endured cardio problems in the past, will go the distance. Mayweather will probably wear McGregor down, and secure the finish late in the fight. Honestly, Mayweather minus-500 to win is a value price but I decided against going that route and risking too high of a percentage of my bankroll.

McGregor’s only chance is to land a lucky haymaker, and those chances are miniscule. They’re certainly more miniscule than the 18 percent probability the betting line currently implies.

If McGregor somehow does come through against all odds, I’ll have an easy time accepting this play as a loss. It will be harder if Mayweather wins by decision, but I can’t help but cheap out and put money on the TKO.

Current Standings: Granger (5-6, $11,095), Keefer (5-3-1, $10,765), Grimala (2-1, $10,595), Brewer (5-6, $8,740)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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