Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective of the Sweet 16

Allonzo Trier NCAA

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Arizona guard Allonzo Trier (35) goes to the basket as Saint Mary’s Dane Pineau (22) and Evan Fitzner, right, defend during the first half of a second-round college basketball game in the men’s NCAA Tournament, Saturday, March 18, 2017, in Salt Lake City.

Fifteen games are left this college basketball season until a national champion is crowned.

Eight of them come over the next two days. The Sweet 16 is the final round of the NCAA Tournament where several opportunities are available for sports bettors.

Talking Points wants to take full advantage.

Check below for picks on every Sweet 16 game, listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The blog has gone 30-21-1 against the spread picking every tournament game so far

No. 4 seed Florida minus-1.5 vs. No. 8 seed Wisconsin Forget Wisconsin’s 65-62 victory over defending champions Villanova as 5.5-point underdogs. The most impressive round of 32 performance belonged to Florida, which smothered an underrated Virginia team 65-39 as 2-point favorites. It went mostly unnoticed, much like the rest of Florida’s terrific season, which has left the Gators consistently undervalued.

No. 2 seed Kentucky plus-1 vs. No. 3 seed UCLA The cure to all of the Wildcats’ recent offensive ills will be found by facing the Bruins. UCLA is the worst defensive team left in the field — ranking No. 77 in the nation in defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com — which will be its undoing against a team poised to exploit the shortcoming.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga minus-3 vs. No. 4 seed West Virginia West Virginia, not Arizona, poses the biggest threat in Gonzaga’s quest to reach its Final Four. The Mountaineers could easily add to the Bulldogs’ history of March Madness disappointment, but there are a few factors that make it more difficult than the betting line indicates. Nigel Williams-Goss might be the best point guard left in the tournament and won’t succumb to West Virginia’s pressure easily, while Gonzaga’s offense is much better than it's shown in its first two tournament games.

No. 4 seed Butler plus-7.5 vs. No. 1 seed North Carolina North Carolina definitely has a talent advantage, but with Butler’s ability to ignite behind the likes of Kelan Martin and Kamar Baldwin, it’s probably not as large perceived. Add the fact that Butler’s Chris Holtmann could coach circles around North Carolina’s Roy Williams, and this shapes up as another close call for the Tar Heels.

No. 2 seed Arizona minus-7.5 vs. No. 11 seed Xavier Neither Florida State nor Maryland, Xavier’s first two tournament opponents, properly attacked the Musketeers’ obvious decencies from making due with a makeshift lineup. Given four days to prepare, Arizona coach Sean Miller will surely devise a better plan.

No. 3 seed Oregon plus-1.5 vs. No. 7 seed Michigan Before the tournament began, the Ducks would have been a minimum 3-point favorite over the Wolverines. Michigan’s run has been no doubt impressive, but a pair of wins by a total of 5 points over Oklahoma State and Louisville doesn’t permit this large of a line move.

No. 3 seed Baylor minus-3.5 vs. No. 7 seed South Carolina Under 135 points is the best way to bet on this game, as both teams prefer to play a slower pace and will run into challenges against each other’s stiff defenses. It’s a coin-flip on the point spread, but Baylor has proven it can play at an elite level for a longer stretch of the season than South Carolina.

No. 4 seed Purdue plus-5.5 vs. No. 1 seed Kansas A team’s stock in the betting market can change quickly in the NCAA Tournament. Take Kansas, which came into the postseason as the forgotten No. 1 seed and saw most of the money come in against it before a 90-70 win as 7.5-point favorites against Michigan State in the second round. Now the Jayhawks are the favorite to win the tournament and drawing 75 percent of the action against the Boilermakers. That’s added an unnecessary 1.5 points to the spread, and made Purdue the play.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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