NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s Elite 8

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 25, 2018 | 2 a.m.

The second weekend of March Madness has almost felt like two entirely different tournaments featured on alternating days.

Thursday and Saturday provided looks into the kid’s table, where the less esteemed teams that survived immense early wreckage played for shots at program history. Friday, and now today, is like cracking the door for a glimpse into a formal dining room.

An Elite Eight run is business as usual for at least three of the four teams playing for a shot into the Final Four today. Championships aren’t hoped for; they’re expected — especially to cap off the types of the seasons these teams have managed.

Villanova, Duke and Kansas spent all year near the top of the rankings, and Texas Tech wasn’t far behind. There’s a high probability that the team that comes out of this side of the bracket will be favored going into the national championship game next Monday night — Texas Tech reaching the title game and playing Michigan would be the only divergent scenario.

Check below to see which teams Talking Points expects to have the opportunity. The record picking every tournament game against the spread stands at 30-29-3. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 3 seed Texas Tech plus-7 vs. No. 1 seed Villanova Already the favorite to win the tournament, Villanova’s price nearly trimmed in half after Friday’s 90-78 win over West Virginia as 5-point favorites. The Wildcats went from plus-350 in Westgate Las Vegas Superbook’s futures market to plus-200. And somehow it still didn’t feel like enough. Anyone who questioned whether Villanova could maintain its stifling efficiency from the regular season in the tournament has been proven wrong. The Wildcats have only gotten better, averaging 1.25 points per possession as opposed to 1.2 throughout the rest of the year. They successfully bombed 13 of 24 three-point attempts against the Mountaineers — with stars Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges hitting three apiece — to put their overall tournament average at just under 50 percent.

West Virginia’s pressure didn’t slow Villanova, but could Texas Tech’s pesky brand of defense — especially on the perimeter — do the trick? That’s the question that will determine which side to take here. On the Red Raiders’ side is the fact that the Wildcats haven’t faced a defense nearly as efficient all season. It’s tough to fade Villanova because it’s clearly been the best team in the nation and oddsmakers can’t seem to catch up no matter how quickly they try to adjust their power ratings. But make no mistake: Oddsmakers have been trying, and despite past performance, this could still be the game where they went too far. Texas Tech should be able to slow the game down and stay within two possessions. It’s a tough take, but the take is the only possible play.

No. 2 seed Duke minus-3 vs. No. 1 seed Kansas Duke was riding even higher than Villanova during the first two rounds, before running into Syracuse’s stinginess and eking out a 69-65 win as 11.5-point favorites in the Sweet 16. Expect more points here, a lot more as the total is set 24.5 points higher at 155 and it’s hard to envision any recreational gambler muttering the words, “under.” Neither the Blue Devils nor the Jayhawks have gotten this deep by virtue of its defense. Kansas struggles as much as any team Bill Self has ever coached on that end, so Marvin Bagley could easily uphold his torrid tournament pace and Grayson Allen could rebound from a 3-for-14 shooting night against Syracuse. Kansas is quite capable of keeping up, though. Duke has shored up most of his defensive shortcomings lately by switching to a zone, but Kansas is athletic and skilled enough to bust it with its top three scorers — Devonte’ Graham, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and Malik Newman — all shooting above 40 percent from three-point range.

Perhaps that partially explains why some of the bigger money has shown up on Kansas. Duke opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has reportedly drawn the bulk of the early bets, but sports books have ditched the half-point hook. There’s a path to victory, but the Jayhawks are going to have to play close to perfectly, which they haven’t done yet in the tournament in barely posting a 1-2 against the spread record. Duke has more depth and the higher-end talent, giving it a bigger margin for error. Against Kansas, Duke should look more like the team that throttled Rhode Island and Iona than struggled versus Syracuse.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.