Countdown to college football: Picking every Big 12 team’s win total

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2019 | 2 a.m.

Optimism rules in the college football preseason as the vast majority of the 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams are convinced they’ll take a step forward.

Such positivity often extends to gamblers and handicappers, as bets on teams to go over their win totals or reach the College Football Playoff always outweigh the volume of tickets on unders and teams falling short. I often find myself falling into the same problem with these previews, stumbling into a conference where every team looks improved and “over” is the first reaction on the win totals.

This year’s Big 12 is the opposite.

There’s more reason for negativity with almost every team, as coaching changes and player departures proliferate the outlook. But someone has to win, especially with the Big 12 being the only conference to play a full round-robin schedule.

That may sound vacuous, but it’s the Big 12’s saving grace.

Read below for the final part of Talking Points’ countdown to college football series picking every team’s win total and look back on the first nine installments here.

Baylor

Total: 7.5 (minus-120, Even)

Last Year: 7-6 straight-up, 6-6-1 against the spread

If this is the year Baylor can elevate to even average levels defensively, then the rest of the Big 12 may have a problem on its hands. And it sure looks like there are signs pointing in that direction. The Bears have the third-most returning defensive production in the nation, per the S&P+ rankings, among Power Five conference teams. The offense has quite a bit back too, including third-year starting quarterback Charlie Brewer, and explosive running backs John Lovett and JaMychal Hasty. Metrics may signal that this is a high asking price, but coach Matt Rhule has exceeded expectations in most of his seasons on the sidelines.

Lean: Over 7.5 wins at minus-120

Iowa State

Total: 8 (minus-110, minus-110)

Last Year: 8-5 straight-up, 6-7 against the spread

Speaking of overachieving coaches, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell has been one of the best bets in the nation dating back to his time at Toledo with a career 52-34-2 against the spread record. Much of his success has been built without high expectations, though. That changes this year, and it will be interesting to see if Campbell’s team performs with a target on its back. The betting market has Iowa State as the clear third choice in the Big 12 at 12-to-1 odds to win the title. The Cyclones bring back most of the best defensive front in the conference and quarterback Brock Purdy, one of the most surprising breakout freshmen in the country last season. Elsewhere, they’re less proven — including in the skill positions and secondary. It doesn’t pay to bet against Campbell, but it’s also not smart to invest in a program at a historically high price.

Guess: Under 8 wins at minus-110

Kansas

Total: 3 (plus-110, minus-130)

Last Year: 3-9 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread

Three wins sounds like a low bar in a conference that might not be as tough as usual but it starts raising when trying to pinpoint where the victories come from. The Jayhawks are only going to be favored in two games — in the first two weeks against Indiana State and Coastal Carolina — and likely by less than a touchdown in both. Odds are they lose one of the two. That would put on the pressure to win two Big 12 games, something they haven’t managed in more than a decade. Kansas might be worth a look catching big point spreads week to week as coach Les Miles cuts down games with a methodical, run-first approach featuring Pooka Williams, who averaged 7 yards per carry as a freshman. But don’t expect marked improvement in Miles’ first year.

Lean: Under 3 wins at minus-130

Kansas State

Total: 5.5 (plus-120, minus-140)

Last Year: 5-7 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread

The last two non-Bill Snyder coaches to take the helm at Kansas State have gone a combined 19-50-1 straight-up, 30-39-1 against the spread. Translation: It’s hard to win in Manhattan, Kan. Your move, Chris Kleinman. The Football Championship Subdivision legend from North Dakota State arrives to the Little Apple looking to implement his own systems. That usually takes some time after the prior coach had established his own culture for a decade, let alone when the prior coach is the best in school history like Snyder. One of the tougher schedules in the Big 12, due to traveling to play Mississippi State in the non-conference and catching two teams off a bye week, is another detriment.

Lean: Under 5.5 wins at minus-140

Oklahoma

Total: 10 (minus-150, plus-130)

Last Year: 12-2 straight-up, 6-7-1 against the spread

Football fans grow bored of dominance, and no team has been more dominant in its conference than Oklahoma recently. The Sooners are in the middle of the greatest run in Big 12 history and can add to their own record with a fifth straight conference title this year. There’s not much standing in their way. Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings have Oklahoma as the second-most likely undefeated Power Five conference team, and it only narrowly trails Clemson. That’s a reflection on the rest of the Big 12. The Sooners are currently a double-digit favorite in all but one game — the Oct. 12 meeting with Texas where Oklahoma is a 4-point favorite. It would be foolish to expect Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts to match the record-breaking efficiency of the past two Heisman trophy winners, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield, but the Sooners may make strides on the other side of the ball. New defensive coordinator Alex Grinch is one of the most forward-thinking minds in college football. Oklahoma isn’t getting much action in the futures, but it should be.

Lean: Over 10 wins at minus-150

Oklahoma State

Total: 7.5 (Even, minus-120)

Last Year: 7-6 straight-up, 7-6 against the spread

If there’s any long shot that may offer value to win the Big 12 this season, it’s Oklahoma State at 20-to-1. Even more puzzling than bettors’ relative reluctance to back Oklahoma — the Sooners do have low odds, after all — is their stance against its in-state rivals. The Cowboys have been among the most consistent teams in the conference, only falling below 7.5 wins three times in the last decade. They were better than their record last year, going 2-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown or having negative turnover luck. Highly sought-after offensive coordinator/quarterback coach Sean Gleeson arrives from Princeton and will have his own signal caller to mold, likely freshman Spencer Sanders at least in the long run. The Cowboys have always played well when the odds are against them — they’ve covered their last six games as underdogs — and the odds are against them this year.

Play: Over 7.5 wins at Even money

Texas

Total: 9 (minus-110, minis-110)

Last Year: 10-4 straight-up, 6-7-1 against the spread

Here’s the truth about last year’s Texas team: It was led by defense and wasn’t as efficient as most are remembering it. Almost the entire defense is gone — the Longhorns are 123^rd in the nation in returning defensive production — and the close-game luck could be the next to go. Practically every Longhorns game came down to the wire last season, and they were arguably fortunate to finish 7-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less. There are two extenuating factors working in Texas’ favor — coach Tom Herman, whose teams have overperformed their expectation every year, and quarterback Sam Ehlinger. The now-junior Ehlinger was terrific last year — completing 65 percent of his passes and throwing 25 touchdowns to five interceptions — but will need to be one of the best in the nation for Texas to take its expected leap this year. That’s a difficult ask.

Play: Under 9 wins at minus-110

TCU

Total: 7.5 (minus-110, minus-110)

Last Year: 7-6 straight-up, 5-8 against the spread

Everyone got hurt last year — and the Horned Frogs still managed to squeak out bowl-eligibility. If TCU stays healthier this year, it could return to being a conference contender like it has been in three of the past five years. Another benefit from a season lost to injury is the experience it bestowed up and down the roster. Depth has been an issue for TCU in the past, but shouldn’t be this season. The schedule is also forgiving, as the Horned Frogs will be favored in each of their first four games. Only going .500 from there appears more than attainable.

Lean: Over 7.5 wins at minus-110

Texas Tech

Total: 6.5 (plus-120, minus-140)

Last Year: 5-7 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread

The good news: The Red Raiders unearthed another quarterback destined to throw for an obscene amount of yards last year in now-sophomore Alan Bowman. The bad news: Bowman will now have to assimilate to a new system under first-year coach Matt Wells. The Red Raiders’ fan base was nonplussed by the hiring of Wells and it’s easy to see why. Wells broke through last season at Utah State with an 11-2 straight-up, 10-3 against the spread record but he entered the year coaching for his job. The Aggies had underachieved in the four previous seasons with Wells. With a defense low on impact players, Wells might have a similarly slow build in Lubbock.

Lean: Under 6.5 wins at minus-140

West Virginia

Total: 5 (plus-120, minus-140)

Last Year: 8-4 straight-up, 6-4-2 against the spread

Here’s a team where the metrics clash with conventional wisdom. In that scenario, it’s usually wise to side with the numbers. Bettors likely aren’t high on the Mountaineers because of the departure of coach Dana Holgorsen and quarterback Will Grier. Analytics are more bullish because of the Mountaineers’ priors — they’ve had one losing season in 18 years — and a decent complement of skill players returning including Alabama transfer receiver T.J. Simmons and running back Kennedy McKoy. Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall steps in at quarterback, and though he may be no Grier, his pedigree indicates he’ll keep West Virginia competitive.

Lean: Over 5 wins at plus-120

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.