Vegas pick’em: NFL week 17 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 26, 2019 | 2 a.m.

If the outgoing CG Technology sports books will be missed for anything in current form, it's their annual springtime release of point spreads on every NFL game for the season ahead.

Well, almost every game. For the last decade, CG Technology has set the local market on the full-season NFL spreads with one exception — week 17.

The sports book chain always left off the final slate of games because of its total unpredictability. With the regular season already decided for the vast majority of teams, week 17 is annually a collection of glorified exhibitions.

This year is no different. Let that be a warning to tread lightly on the final week of the NFL season.

There's no reason to ruin the holidays with irresponsible wagers on teams with no motivation to perform. But I'll still handicap every game and attempt to add to a successful 130-106-4 against the spread record on the season.

Read below for week 17 picks, separated into three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (38-23-1)

Denver Broncos minus-3 vs. Oakland Raiders Laying 3 instead of 3.5 requires laying minus-120 at the sports books where it's available — William Hill and CG Technologies — but it's well worth it. The Broncos have shown no signs of slowing down despite their season being over and rate ahead of the Raiders by most any measure, including sitting at No. 19 in weighted DVOA to Oakland's No. 25.

San Francisco 49ers minus-3 at Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks are in a state of desperation as it pertains to injuries, with possible problematic absences at every position group. That looks unlikely to improve over the next few days so grab a spread below a field goal while it's available.

Leans (46-36)

Detroit Lions plus-13 at Green Bay Packers It takes a big gulp to back the Lions, which have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 games, right now but this number makes it one worth taking. The Packers were only 9.5-point favorites in this spot before their 23-10 win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football as 4-point underdogs, and even with the added incentive of a potential top-seed in the NFC, this adjustment is too big.

Carolina Panthers plus-13 at New Orleans Saints Carolina didn't play nearly as poorly as last week's 38-6 final score at Indianapolis makes it look as the blowout was mainly a result of not finishing off drives and turnovers — two highly fickle factors. I'm waiting it out hoping the full 14 comes available but the Panthers might be worth a stab regardless.

Cleveland Browns minus-2.5 at Cincinnati Bengals You know who's probably a worse coach than Cleveland's much-maligned Freddie Kitchens? Cincinnati's Zac Taylor, who strings together decisions with negative expected value more than anyone in the league and rates dead-last in edjsports' analytic-based coach rankings.

Houston Texans plus-3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans I went into researching this game wanting to back Tennessee given its win-and-in situation but came out unable to ignore Houston coach Bill O'Brien sounding hellbent on playing his starters the whole game. If O'Brien stays true to his word, then this number is undeniably inflated.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers No one in the NFL is playing better than the Chiefs right now, and needing a win to secure better playoff positioning, I can't see them taking it easy against the Chargers. This spread is likely to reach 10, which would make the pick a tougher proposition, but Kansas City is the look at single digits.

New England Patriots minus-15.5 vs. Miami Dolphins Don't forget that the Patriots closed as an 18-point favorite ahead of 43-0 victory over the Dolphins on the road in September. Yes, New England has gotten worse and Miami has gotten better since then. But that much worse and that much better? Don't bet on it.

Guesses (46-47-3)

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts Maybe it's just a personal rule, but given how much I hate laying 3.5 points, I must have a really good reason to do so. There's not even a marginally good reason here in a game between two teams that are evenly matched from a talent standpoint.

Chicago Bears plus-1 at Minnesota Vikings Locked into the NFC's No. 6 seed and banged up at several positions, it's hard to imagine the Vikings' primary motivation will be anything other than rest this week. Given the situation, Chicago may deserve to be the slight favorite.

Los Angeles Rams minus-7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray may not play because of a hamstring injury, and that sheer possibility makes this a value price on the Rams. The spread will move higher in the Rams' direction if the rookie quarterback is out than in the Cardinals' direction if he's cleared.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-4.5 at New York Giants The line looks fair, but at the end of the day, the Eagles are playing for everything — read, an NFC East title and playoff berth — while the Giants are playing for nothing. It might be time to sell high on New York after three straight covers.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-2 at Baltimore Ravens The success of the Steelers' defense, which rates third in the NFL in giving up only 4.7 yards per play, shouldn't be overstated. The thought of the unit playing against the Ravens' offensive backups is a scary one.

New York Jets plus-2 at Buffalo Bills The Bills say almost everyone on the roster is playing, but with the team set in the AFC's No. 5 seed, it may not last long. Look for the starters to get in a few series and then rest against a Jets' team that, unlike most peers this time of year, has actually gotten a bit healthier.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick'em vs. Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay's injury report is still full but it managed pretty well in a 23-20 loss against Houston on Saturday, and arguably deserved to win with a 2.5 yard per play advantage. The Buccaneers are better than the Falcons by any metric, traditional or advanced, so a pick'em is too low to pass up.

Dallas Cowboys minus-11 vs. Washington Redskins Number looks perfect, and when that's the case in week 17, it's better to pick the team actually playing for something. This game runs concurrent to the Eagles vs. Giants so, at the very least, the Cowboys will be fully motivated to start with their shot at winning the NFC East intact.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.