Bowl pick’em against the spread: Part 2

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Dec. 27, 2019 | 2 a.m.

With the first five College Football Playoffs mostly remembered for Alabama and Clemson domination, it might come as a bit of a surprise that underdogs have largely held their own in the annual championship event.

Teams taking points have gone 9-6 against the spread, 6-9 straight-up as college football heads into its second half-decade of staging a four-team playoff. That's not predictive going forward, but might be worth keeping in mind if the lines on both of this year's game continue climbing in the favorites' direction.

So far, the action has been all LSU — which got as high as a 14-point favorite after opening at 11 — and Clemson — which is now a 2.5-point favorite after opening as low as a 1-point underdog.

Find out if I agree with the moves below in the second part of our series picking every bowl game. I'm off to a hot start with a 10-2 showing on part 1 to bring my season record picking every game to 404-321-18. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories, and lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Military Bowl at 9 a.m. Friday in Annapolis, Md.: North Carolina minus-6 vs. Temple, over/under: 53. The ACC wasn't much better than the AAC this season, which leaves these two teams' strength of schedules not as lopsided as usual. And, with both teams at .3 net yards per play, they performed near identically during the regular season. Lean: Temple plus-6.

Pinstripe Bowl at 12:20 p.m. Friday in New York: Michigan State minus-3.5 vs. Wake Forest, over/under: 50. Even though Wake Forest quarterback Jamie Newton is expected to play, it's a stretch to expect he'll be at 100 percent. That adds to an already tough matchup against Michigan State's defense, which rates in the nation's top 15 in success rate, per thepowerrank.com's numbers. Wake Forest has played only one team with a defense rated higher than Michigan State's this season — at Clemson, where it lost 52-3 as 35-point underdogs. Play: Michigan State minus-3.5.

Texas Bowl at 3:45 p.m. Friday in Houston: Oklahoma State plus-5.5 vs. Texas A&M, over/under: 54. Here's an actual discrepancy in strength of schedule. The Aggies played arguably the most difficult slate in the nation, leaving their underlying numbers negatively skewed to an unfair degree. They also come into this game healthier with a number of Oklahoma State starters nursing injuries, including quarterback Spencer Sanders. Lean: Texas A&M minus-5.5.

Holiday Bowl at 5 p.m. Friday in San Diego: USC plus-2.5 vs. Iowa, over/under: 52. Over might be the best look here, as Iowa is more capable than perceived on offense and can hang in shootouts if forced. The Hawkeyes might be forced here as the Trojans have been able to score on everyone — even tough defenses like Notre Dame and Utah. As for the side, the number looks right. Guess: USC plus-2.5.

Cheez-It Bowl at 7:15 p.m. Friday in Phoenix: Washington State plus-3 at Air Force, over/under: 68.5. Some gamblers get too caught up in trying to decode motivational angles and trends — such as military academies are more excited to play in bowl games, and Washington State coach Mike Leach's teams typically underperform in the postseason — to take into account the most important factor — talent. This is a mismatch from a talent perspective, a rare mismatch in favor of the underdog. Play: Washington State plus-3.

Cotton Bowl at 9 a.m. Saturday in Arlington, Texas: Memphis plus-7.5 vs. Penn State, over/under: 60.5. Memphis is every bit as good as Penn State, and under optimal circumstances, this would be an easy bet on the Tigers. Some caution may need to be exercised, however, with the variable of new coach Ryan Silverman stepping in to lead his first game. Tread lightly at the more widespread 7 price, but the extra half-point, currently available at Caesars and South Point, is too much to pass up. Play: Memphis plus-7.5.

Camping World Bowl at 9 a.m. Saturday in Orlando: Iowa State plus-3.5 vs. Notre Dame, over/under: 54.5. All reports indicate that Camping World Stadium will be a heavily pro-Iowa State crowd. That doesn't make much of a difference but add it to the surprising long list of advantages for the Cyclones in this matchup. Iowa State has the better offensive and defensive success rate than Notre Dame on the year and sits undervalued by virtue of its unlucky 7-5 straight-up record. Play: Iowa State plus-3.5.

College Football Playoff Semifinal — Peach Bowl at 1 p.m. Saturday in Atlanta: Oklahoma plus-13.5 vs. LSU, over/under: 75.5. The narrative of Oklahoma annually choking in the College Football Playoff is laughable. The Sooners covered in last year's 45-34 loss to Alabama as 14.5-point underdogs, after all, even though they were admittedly never really in the game. The year before that, they took to Georgia to overtime in an instant-classic 54-48 loss as 2.5-point underdog. And this year's team is better than both of those teams in one key area — defense. And their opponent is worse than the last two in one key area — defense. Oklahoma has only given up 5.1 yards per play this year as opposed to 6 last year and 5.7 two years ago. And, as unstoppable as LSU's offense has been, its defense has been slightly suspect at times — especially against rushing quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts is no slouch. Neither is Lincoln Riley, who's more trustworthy than Ed Orgeron with extra time to prepare. Oklahoma will have a shrewd game plan. Heck, I even think the Sooners will have a chance to win and wouldn't mind gambling a bit on a plus-450 money line. In all likelihood, LSU ultimately prevails — but it's close. Play: Oklahoma plus-13.5.

College Football Playoff Semifinal — Fiesta Bowl at 5 p.m. Saturday in Glendale, Ariz.: Clemson minus-2.5 vs. Ohio State, over/under: 63. The thought of not having any action on a playoff game must be a tough one for anyone who's grinded college football all year. But it might be the right idea here. It's tough to find any value in the semifinal nightcap. Ohio State has been the better team dating back to the start of the season; Clemson has been the better team over the last two months. Therefore, if your process weights recent performance heavier, Clemson is going to be the pick. If you value a season-long sample more, then it's Ohio State. There's no right answer. This game should come down to the final minutes, making it wise to back whichever team is getting points. That was Clemson on the opening number at a few sports books, but it's been Ohio State ever since. Guess: Ohio State plus-2.5.

First Responder Bowl at 9:30 a.m. Monday in Dallas: Western Kentucky minus-3.5 vs. Western Michigan, over/under: 54. This is a diet version of the Cheez-It Bowl. Western Michigan's roster puts Western Kentucky's to shame, but the Broncos underachieved this season while the Hilltoppers overachieved. It's important to remember a 12-game sample is still relatively small, and it would have been shocking to imagine Western Michigan as an underdog to Western Kentucky a few months ago. Guess: Western Michigan plus-3.5.

Music City Bowl at 1 p.m. Monday in Nashville: Mississippi State minus-3.5 vs. Louisville, over/under: 63.5. The transitive property is obviously deeply flawed in college football, but in this case, it may help illustrate how much weaker Louisville's competition level has been. The Bulldogs thrashed a healthier Kentucky team 28-13 as a 5.5-point favorite earlier in the season; the Cardinals got trucked 45-13 by Kentucky as 3.5-point underdogs in their final regular season game. Lean: Mississippi State minus-3.5.

Redbox Bowl at 1 p.m. Monday in Santa Clara, Calif.: California minus-7 vs. Illinois, over/under: 43. Sometimes you just have to play the number. The thought of backing perhaps the worst power-five conference team to make a bowl, Illinois, is not a fun one but this spread is too inflated for a game where there shouldn't be many points. California is in the nation's bottom 12 in gaining only 4.6 yards per play and too consistently inept to trust to win a game going away. Guess: Illinois plus-7.

Orange Bowl at 5 p.m. Monday in Miami: Florida minus-14 vs. Virginia, over/under: 54. Why not end the column with a hot take? Florida is the future of the SEC. The Gators are verging on a top five team by most advanced metrics and poised to take the another step next season. They should have no trouble with the overachieving Cavaliers; lay it up to 17. Lean: Florida minus-14.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.