Las Vegas Sun

April 26, 2024

Vegas Play of the Day: Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois, midweek games

The sixth season of the annual Play of the Day betting competition between the Sun's sports staff is now under way, effective July 1.

Bankrolls start at $10,000 for each of the four participants, with the objective to increase it as much as possible over the next year. The minimum daily wager is $300, with a $200 penalty assessed for failing to place a bet on an assigned day.

Past winners are Case Keefer in 2018-19 and 2017-2018, Ray Brewer in 2016-2017 and 2015-2016, and Taylor Bern in 2014-2015.

Eastern Michigan plus-4 at Northern Illinois: $550 to win $500

Northern Illinois is not the same team that has won four of the past eight MAC championships. It's time for the Huskies to stop being priced like it.

Adjustments for prior-season performance need to be de-emphasized now that we're winding down the college football regular season. The truth is, Northern Illinois has done nothing significant this season.

The Huskies' wins have uniformly come against bad teams and they've mostly gotten blown out whenever they've played anyone better. Eastern Michigan isn't necessarily a good team, but it's been more efficient than Northern Illinois on the season.

There's no reason this line should be more than a field goal. It's not a huge chunk of value, but it's enough to be a lean for record-keeping purposes in my continued series picking every Football Bowl Subdivision game this season.

Here are other selections for the midweek games before Friday's column runs. Make sure to check back then for updated records and a pick on every game.

Guess: Bowling Green plus-21 vs. Ohio. Like the Huskies, the Bobcats are a traditional MAC power that hasn't been as strong this year, and is thus overvalued.

Guess: Buffalo minus-7.5 vs. Toledo. This could end up badly if this is the week that Toledo quarterback Mitchell Guadagni returns from injury, but the Rockets have been far too inconsistent to back without clarity on his situation.

Guess: Miami (Ohio) minus-30.5 vs. Akron. Akron is a historically futile 0-10 against the spread, and I intend to stand by last week's promise to back neither the Zips nor Massachusetts for the rest of the season.

Guess: Georgia Tech minus-2.5 vs. North Carolina State. The Wolfpack haven't covered in four straight games, largely because they're besieged by injuries. They might be the right side at 3 or higher, but this line looks just a tad short.

Current Standings: Grimala (10-4, $10,905), Keefer (17-13-2, $9,505), Emerson (9-12, $8,360), Brewer (8-9, $7,735)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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