Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 9 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 31, 2019 | 2 a.m.

The Sunday Night Football game almost always winds up as the biggest decision of the week for sports books.

Usually it’s because action accumulates throughout Sunday’s morning and afternoon games between surviving parlays and players chasing their losses to get even. On fewer occasions, the matchup makes it so the final game of the day is the most bet-on contest from the time the lines open.

This week’s Sunday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots is one of the rare instances that fits in the latter category. The public is all over the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites at Baltimore, and there’s no reason to blame them.

New England has covered at a highly profitable clip for two decades now, and this season has been no different with the Patriots sitting at 6-2 against the spread. But this will be their toughest game yet with Baltimore likely to attract some of the bigger bets and therefore help sports books cut into their liability.

I’m not going to sit idly by as one of my four plays this week comes in Baltimore at New England as I look to build on strong first half of the season. Despite a 5-10 record last week, my overall record stands at 68-52-1 picking every game

Read below for Week 9 picks, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (19-10-1)

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-1.5 vs. Houston Texans in London The Jaguars were arguably already a better team than the Texans — they have a better net yard per play and came a two-point conversion away from beating them on the road — and now are also much healthier. Houston’s list of injuries is long and impactful, hitting nearly every corner of its roster.

Los Angeles Chargers plus-4 vs. Green Bay Packers Expect a big boost to the Chargers’ offense with quarterbacks coach Shane Steichen taking over playcalling duties from the fired Ken Whisenhunt. Green Bay is also in a detrimental scheduling spot, traveling west for its second straight road game.

Carolina Panthers minus-3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Yes, the Titans have won both of Ryan Tannehill’s starts at quarterback. No, the Titans have not played particularly well or deserved to win either. They’re far more limited offensively than the Panthers, which should be a bigger favorite if not for an overreaction to their 51-13 loss as 4.5-point underdogs at San Francisco last week.

Baltimore Ravens plus-3.5 vs. New England Patriots This is one week where Bill Belichick’s coaching advantage is less of a factor. Baltimore’s John Harbaugh could make a strong claim to being the second-best coach in the NFL and has an extra week to prepare coming off a bye. The only part of New England’s defense that’s vulnerable is its rush defense, conveniently where Baltimore is most suited to attack.

Leans (22-21)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-6.5 at Seattle Seahawks This would be a play if this spread reaches 7, but with more shops shaving off the half point and moving to 6, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. The Buccaneers have been perhaps the unluckiest team in the NFL, as despite their 2-5 record, they’ve been more efficient on a per-play basis in all but one of their games.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-1 vs. Indianapolis Colts I’m not thrilled about backing Pittsburgh on a short week, but the number makes it unavoidable. There’s nothing to indicate these teams are anything but evenly matched, making a road favorite in the matchup a preposterous notion. Indianapolis’ continued luck in razor-tight games is unsustainable and likely to run out.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-4.5 vs. Chicago Bears The market continues to resist pegging Chicago as a mediocre team even with evidence piling up of that being the case. The Bears’ offensive struggles are well known, but the defense has also taken a slight step back from last year and currently rates only seventh in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Denver Broncos plus-3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Is new Denver quarterback Brandon Allen really going to be five points worse than his predecessor, past-his-prime Joe Flacco? That’s what this line implies. Cleveland’s point differential is nearly twice as bad as Denver’s — minus-48 to minus-26, respectively — on the year.

Washington Redskins plus-10 at Buffalo Bills Double digits — a line still available at Coast Casinos — is an astronomical price for a game with a total of 36.5 points. Washington’s offense is bad, but not quite destitute at 5 yards per play on the year.

Guesses (27-21)

Oakland Raiders minus-2 vs. Detroit Lions The Raiders have played exceedingly well over the last month — and that’s with one of the most demanding schedules in NFL history. They haven’t played at home since September 15 and may get a boost from other teams racking up the air miles to come play them.

New York Jets minus-3 at Miami Dolphins Yes, they’ve covered three in a row but that Dolphins’ streak is bound to run out if power ratings keep inching them towards respectability. As currently constructed, Miami is barely an NFL team. A side that’s barely an NFL team should be getting at least a touchdown on the betting line in every game.

New York Giants plus-7.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Tough game to handicap, but the extra half-point showing up at Strip properties like Caesars and MGM make it easier to get behind the outmanned home team. The Cowboys were 7-point favorites at home when these teams first met this season and haven’t been consistent enough to now give a bigger price on the road a coupe months later.

Arizona Cardinals plus-10 vs. San Francisco 49ers Neither side of Thursday Night Football looks bettable. Backing the 49ers requires taking them at the height of their position in the market and at three points higher than where this line sat a week ago. Backing the Cardinals means taking a rookie coach on a short week with a team at a huge talent disadvantage. Pick your poison.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-2 vs. Minnesota Vikings Here’s the near weekly spot where the promise to pick every game on Wednesday comes back to bite me. Circa is currently the only sports book with a line on this game, and it’s a short one certain to turn into a value price if Patrick Mahomes returns for the Chiefs.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.