Bowl pick’em against the spread: Part 1

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020 | 12:41 p.m.

Those who bemoaned bowl season as watered-down before are really for in a treat this year.

With not only players but whole teams opting out of college football’s traditional postseason amid another wave of COVID-19 infections, there’s going to be a dearth of must-see matchups. It seems like television executives and bowl directors are holding together what’s left of the schedule — some games, including the Las Vegas Bowl, were canceled — with duct tape, just trying to maintain some semblance of a bowl season.

I appreciate their efforts. All sports bettors should. It doesn’t feel like the holidays without sometimes obscure teams playing in often strange matchups, so let’s go ahead with another year of the bowl pick’em.

No one quits when behind anyway, and despite a decent picking performance on conference championship week with a 4-1 record on plays, I’m still behind on the year at 214-238-4 (41-42-2 on plays, 55-60 on leans, 118-136-3 on guesses) picking (almost) every game.

Read below for picks on the first set of bowl games, labeled with three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Myrtle Beach Bowl, 11:30 a.m. Monday in Conway, S.C.: Appalachian State -19 vs. North Texas, over/under: 62.5. Both these teams are poorly coached and underachieving, having gone a combined 5-15 against the spread. So, uh, yeah, welcome to bowl season. The Mountaineers’ defense is far and away the best unit here though. Lean: Appalachian State -19.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 12:30 p.m. Tuesday in Boise, Idaho: Tulane -3.5 vs. UNR, over/under: 56.5. The Wolf Pack have been better on both sides of the ball this season by EPA (expected points added) per play, but they’ve also played a much weaker set of opposition. The location is also an advantage, but this is a mostly a number’s play with a couple 3.5s still hanging around but unlikely to last until kickoff. Guess: UNR +3.5.

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl, 4 p.m. Tuesday in Boca Raton, Fla.: UCF +4 vs. BYU, over/under: 70.5. From an analytical standpoint, BYU would have been deserving of the much-scrutinized No. 4 spot in the College Football Playoff if only it didn’t inexplicably lose to Coastal Carolina. That’s how good the Cougars have been, better than the Knights in every way. Play: BYU -4.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, Noon Wednesday in New Orleans: Louisiana Tech +4 vs. Georgia Southern, over/under: 50.5. The Bulldogs are coming off quite possibly the worst single-game performance in college football this season, getting outgained by 6.7 yards per play in a 52-10 loss to TCU as 21-point underdogs. They’re a lot worse than this number is capturing. Lean: Georgia Southern -4.

Montgomery Bowl, 4 p.m. Wednesday in Montgomery, Ala.: Memphis -10 vs. Florida Atlantic, over/under: 52. Memphis’ offense is a formidable challenge, but don’t underestimate a stout Florida Atlantic defense led by edge rusher/NFL prospect Leighton McCarthy. Double-digits is too much for the Tigers against an Owls’ side ranking in the nation’s top 10 in sack rate. Play: Florida Atlantic +10.

New Mexico Bowl, 12:30 p.m. Thursday in Frisco, Texas: Hawaii +10 at Houston, over/under: 61.5. Not thrilled to be trusting a highly volatile Houston side, but this number is just wrong. The Cougars should be closer to a two-touchdown favorite, and they’re trending that way on offshores but a couple local sports books are stuck on the discount price. Lean: Houston -10.

Camellia Bowl, 11:30 a.m. Friday in Montgomery, Ala.: Marshall +3 vs. Buffalo, over/under: 54.5. Buffalo has put up gaudy numbers, but it’s important to remember it’s come against MAC opposition. Marshall faded late in the season but would have been a favorite in this spot for most of the year. There’s still not much to suggest this should be more than a pick’em. Guess: Marshall +3.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.