Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 9 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020 | 2 a.m.

Updated Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020 | 12:04 p.m.

The victory lap that ensued after the NFL’s encouraging lack of coronavirus positive tests in training camp now feels like forever ago.

The league has not been immune to surging cases across the world recently. More games than not seem to have been affected heading into Week 9, which has resulted in a number of them getting pulled off, and then often put back on, Las Vegas betting boards over the last few days.

Luckily, they were all up on Wednesday evening with one exception — Detroit at Minnesota. There’s still some uncertainty on Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who was left unable to practice after coming into contact with someone who tested positive but could return on Sunday. That wiped out one of my plays — I liked Minnesota at -4 or especially -3.5 — and left me kicking myself for not betting it sooner.

But those are the breaks of betting on football in 2020. It could be much worse; I could get saddled with a bad ticket before a key player like Stafford is forced to miss time.

That thankfully hasn’t happened yet, but the regular season is just now hitting the midway point. Like it or not, it’s a caution of the job this year.

Read below for picks on every Week 9 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year stands at 66-52-1 after an 8-6 Week 8 showing.

Plays (17-18)

Arizona Cardinals -4 vs. Miami Dolphins An advantageous game state gleaned off a number of takeaways can’t fully explain away the Dolphins’ dreadful average of 3 yards per play in Tua Tagovailoa’s debut last week. He’s not ready to go on the road and take on what’s been a low-key strong stop unit as Arizona rates 10^th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA on defense.

New Orleans Saints +5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers The number on this game the first time the two teams met was New Orleans -3.5 — and the Saints went on to win 34-23 by the way. The hype on Tampa Bay has gone much too far when there’s an 8.5-point swing against another strong team.

Minnesota Vikings -4.5 vs. Detroit Lions Minnesota might be one of the most improved teams dating back to the start of the season, and despite last week's 28-22 win over the Packers as 7-point underdogs, the market still doesn't seem to realize it. Circa Sports has this number up, and I wouldn't be surprised if it creeps towards 6 when the rest of the market eventually joins.

San Francisco 49ers +7 vs. Green Bay Packers After opening at Green Bay -2.5, there’s been too big of an adjustment for the 49ers’ injuries, which in fairness are significant, and coronavirus scare and not enough accounting for their advantages. San Francisco has big coaching and home-field edges, two factors that are magnified in Thursday games.

Leans (20-14-1)

Buffalo Bills +3 vs. Seattle Seahawks This number seems a little high considering Seattle is only nominally more efficient on the year at 0.3 net yards per play to Buffalo’s 0.2. I’m also expecting the struggling Bills’ defense to improve as they gradually get healthier.

Los Angeles Chargers pick’em vs. Las Vegas Raiders Imagine if the Chargers had just flipped the result of one or two of the four games where they blew a 90+% win expectancy this year; then this line would never be less than a field goal. The Raiders have the worst pass defense Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has seen all year.

Washington Football Team -2.5 vs. New York Giants Despite a 20-19 loss as 2-point underdogs three weeks ago, Washington arguably outplayed New York with yardage and first-down edges. Now it comes into the rematch stronger situationally, off of a bye as compared to the Giants being off of a short week following Monday Night Football.

Guesses (29-20)

Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 vs. Carolina Panthers The Panthers’ defense has arguably overperformed and yet they still rank 25^th in DVOA. This is a juicy matchup for sudden, surging MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes, who’s closed the gap to sit second narrowly behind Russell Wilson in odds to win the award.

Chicago Bears +5.5 at Tennessee Titans Both teams have overachieved via wins in close games but are now regressing with two-game losing streaks. I wouldn’t want to lay a decent-sized number on either side.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Denver Broncos It’s so hard to trust Atlanta, but it does have a decided talent edge here. The point spread opened at Falcons -4.5 and seemed fairer there.

New York Jets +7.5 vs. New England Patriots Even coach Bill Belichick sounds like he’s accepted the Patriots’ fate this year as a feeling of defeat has crept into the franchise for the first time in ages. A team in the bottom third of the league looking toward the future should not be laying more than a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts +2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens Baltimore -3 should be the spread under normal circumstances, but a half-point adjustment — even off a key number — seems reasonable, if not a bit understated, considering the Ravens' coronavirus situation. They have eight players not practicing this week after coming into contact with cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who’s out after testing positive.

Houston Texans -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars The number looks right, but it’s hard to pick a team led by quarterback Jake Luton without having ever seen him in action. The market has also experienced trouble trying to quantify how poorly the Jaguars have played considering they’ve failed to cover in five straight.

Dallas Cowboys +14 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Yes, the Steelers are the last undefeated team standing but they’ve also been the NFL’s eighth least-efficient offense at 5.2 yards per play. They’ve not shown enough efficiency to lay two touchdowns, even against what might be the worst opponent imaginable given Dallas’ quarterback void.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.