Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 10 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 12, 2020 | 2 a.m.

The NFL may follow the lead of the NHL and MLB and leave sports books in a bind with a late change to its playoff format.

The NFL owners this week approved a proposal that would increase the playoffs from 14 to 16 teams if the regular season isn’t completed in 18 weeks. That wreaks havoc on some betting markets, such as “yes/no” props for teams to make the playoffs entering the season.

Some sports books were forced to pay out such wagers and take a loss when the coronavirus interrupted the NHL season and the league decided to revise the playoffs to include 24 teams instead of the standard 16. Then, baseball was arguably even worse when it announced a playoff expansion from 10 to 16 teams on the eve of the shortened season's opening day.

Having seen the fluid nature of postseasons, most sports books altered their rules going into the NFL season. Circa Sports, for instance, stipulated that all playoff prices were only action if the initial 14-team plan remained.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook made its rule that all teams must play 16 games for action, which makes it also safe assuming the expansion will only be made in the case of a shortened season. It’s still worth checking house rules wherever such wagers were made to see how they will be handled.

These changes have made for lucky breaks for bettors before, and they just might do so again.

Read below for picks on every Week 10 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year stands at 72-60-1 after a 6-8 Week 9 performance.

Plays (19-20)

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Tennessee Titans This is a terrific matchup for the Colts for a number of reasons, starting with their run defense. Indianapolis is tied with Tampa Bay for first in the league in giving up only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, which should significantly hinder Tennessee strategically.

Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 at Miami Dolphins Turnovers, penalties, unforced errors, etc. The Dolphins find a new way to win, and the Chargers to lose, each week. These things are usually chalked up to qualities like grit when they’re really just randomness likely to even out over time.

Los Angeles Rams -1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles is coming off of a bye week while Seattle is playing its second straight road game. The Rams’ defense is also highly underrated considering it leads the NFL in giving up 4.7 yards per play and should challenge the Seahawks more than anyone has so far this season.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at New York Giants Getting 3 requires laying -120 but it’s worth it in what should be a low-scoring game. The Eagles are coming off of a bye while the Giants barely beat the Washington Football Team last week, 23-20 as 3-point underdogs, despite having a +5 turnover margin.

Arizona Cardinals -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Against comparable schedule strengths, Arizona is at 0.8 net yards per play to Buffalo’s 0.2. The Cardinals seem to have been downgraded in the market following their 34-31 loss to the Dolphins as 6-point favorites, but they were the far more efficient team with yardage and first-down advantages.

Leans (21-16-1)

Baltimore Ravens -7 at New England Patriots The Jets have been endlessly mocked as one of the worst teams in history, and they just outgained the Patriots by 1.8 yards per play on Monday Night Football despite the latter’s 30-27 win but non-cover as 9-point favorites. And this wasn’t a one-off cause for alarm, as New England has been one of the worst teams in the league over the last month.

Chicago Bears +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings The Bears were a 2-point favorite on last  week’s lookahead lines, and there’s no justifying a 5-point swing regardless of how well the Vikings played in a 34-20 win over the Lions. The Vikings haven’t faced an above-average defense like the Bears since a 28-11 Week 2 loss to the Colts.

Cincinnati Bengals +8 at Pittsburgh Steelers Bengals were a steal when this opened as high as 10.5, but the line has now drifted closer to where it should be. Still, Cincinnati coming out of a bye while Pittsburgh plays its sixth straight week is no small edge and maybe even enough to make -7 the fair price.

Houston Texans +3 at Cleveland Browns Positive injury news for the Browns out of a bye week should soon push this to 3.5, which is where I plan to strike. These teams are ultimately pretty even with the Texans’ 1-3 record in games decided by a touchdown or less — as opposed to the Browns’ 2-0 mark in the category — leaving them undervalued.

Detroit Lions -3 vs. Washington Football Team Buy low on Detroit, which has lost back-to-back games to two teams undervalued by the market — Minnesota and Indianapolis. The Football Team presents the Lions’ their first overmatched opponent since the Jaguars, which they obliterated 34-16 as 3-point favorites.

Denver Broncos +5 at Las Vegas Raiders Now feels like the time to sell high on the Raiders, which now have only more defensive issues with cluster injuries in the defensive backfield. The final play had to be overturned for Las Vegas to hold on to a victory in Los Angeles last week, and yet this line has climbed as much as 1.5 points from the lookahead number.

Guesses (32-24)

New Orleans Saints -9 vs. San Francisco 49ers It’s hard to bet the 49ers with the whole roster on the mend and little clarity on who will be available on Sunday. San Francisco may be bottoming out while New Orleans is peaking if the Saints’ 38-3 smackdown of the Buccaneers last week as 3-point favorites is any indication.

Green Bay Packers -13.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars I see no reason why this shouldn’t be on the other side of 14, and nothing to prevent it from ultimately getting there. I still don’t want to get involved with a flawed and inconsistent Green Bay team, but this is a way to snag a price that will probably close a bit higher.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 at Carolina Panthers Number looks right, but teams coming off of embarrassing performances like Tampa Bay’s blowout loss to New Orleans as 3- last week are typically wise investments the next week. It’s also a tough ask for Carolina to go up against Kansas City and Tampa Bay, two of the best teams in the league despite last week’s result, on back-to-back weeks.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or