College football by the odds: Bowl pick’em Against the Spread Part 1

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Dec. 15, 2021 | 2 a.m.

The number of challenges that have presented themselves to bettors attempting to handicap college football’s bowl season in recent years never stop adding up.  

As if coaches taking new jobs, draft-eligible players leaving early and others entering the transfer portal aren’t enough, one of the first bowl games of the 2021-2022 season has an all-new hurdle. The situation with Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener is in a way a combination of all three aforementioned scenarios.

Haener, coming off a terrific year in his first season playing at Fresno State after transferring from Washington, announced he was leaving and heading back to Washington with coach Kalen DeBoer to help his professional stock. Then Haener changed his mind once Fresno hired Jeff Tedford to replace DeBoer and announced he was actually staying.

But interim coach Lee Marks had already vowed to start Jaylen Henderson or Logan Fife in Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl against UTEP when he thought Haener was gone. And Marks has decided not to give any clarity to his decision now with Haener back in the fold.

Good luck solving that quarterback riddle, and welcome to bowl season. It’s going to be tough, but worth it. Talking Points will continue to pick every game through the national championship in its normal Wednesday college football column looking to build on this season’s 355-345-8 record (73-78 on plays, 124-105-2 on leans and 158-162-6 on guesses).

Bowl season has always been a specialty including last year when the column went 17-9 picking every game including 5-1 on plays.

Read below for the initial sets of picks, on the first 11 games. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee +10.5 vs. Toledo, over/under: 51.5. The Rockets’ statistical profile reads far better than the Blue Raiders’ but they racked up the numbers against pretty suspect competition. The Mid-American Conference has traditionally struggled in bowl games, and it looks like Conference USA was a step above in the Group of Five hierarchy this season. Lean: Middle Tennessee +10.5.

Cure Bowl: Northern Illinois +10.5 vs. Coastal Carolina, over/under: 64. As long as Chanticleers star quarterback Grayson McCall plays — and all indications are that he will play —this number isn’t high enough. The Huskies don’t have the secondary to slow one of the standout players of the last two seasons. Play: Coastal Carolina -10.5.

Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky +3 vs. Appalachian State, over/under: 68. Appalachian State is too experienced and disciplined to get flustered by Western Kentucky’s exhaustive pace. The Hilltoppers also have injury and transfer concerns to give the Mountaineers a bigger leg-up. Play: Appalachian State -3.

New Mexico Bowl: UTEP +12 vs. Fresno State, over/under: 52. The talent on Fresno State’s roster could overwhelm UTEP, but there are too many unknowns around the program — beyond just Haener — like the motivation under an interim coach to count on it. The Miners seem more likely to put on their best performance in their first bowl game in seven years. Guess: UTEP +12.

Independence Bowl: UAB +7 vs. BYU, over/under: 54.5. UAB has been one of the best teams in the nation to bet on since reviving its program, and it’s no fluke. The Blazers are extremely well-coached under Bill Clark and were playing their best at the end of the year, the opposite of a Cougars’ team that may have peaked early in the season. Play: UAB +7.

LendingTree Bowl: Eastern Michigan +9 at Liberty, over/under: 58.5. Liberty has been maddeningly inconsistent, but Eastern Michigan has been just plain bad — getting outgained by 0.8 yards per play on the year. If the good version of the Flames show up, they should zip by the Eagles. Guess: Liberty -9.

Jimmy Kimmel Los Angeles Bowl: Utah State +7 vs. Oregon State, over/under: 67.5. Oregon State had both the more efficient offense and the more efficient defense despite playing a significantly tougher schedule. Look for Beavers running back B.J. Baylor to go off against an iffy Aggies’ rush defense behind one of the Pac-12’s better offensive lines. Play: Oregon State -7.

New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana -5.5 vs. Marshall, over/under: 54.5. Yes, the Ragin’ Cajuns will have an obvious homefield advantage but does that outweigh other potential disadvantages like breaking in a new coaching staff with Billy Napier off to Florida? The Thundering Herd underperformed much of the year, but their full team and staff is still intact and far from outmatched here. Lean: Marshall +5.5.

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Old Dominion +9.5 vs. Tulsa, over/under: 52.5. Speaking of locational advantages, Old Dominion has one of the biggest in bowl season in getting to play the second Football Bowl Subdivision postseason game in school history within driving distance of its campus. The market hasn’t respected Old Dominion all season, despite the Monarchs covering its last five games all by at least a touchdown, and this number is also climbing so the best approach might be to wait for a potential +10. Lean: Old Dominion +9.5.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Wyoming -3 vs. Kent State, over/under: 59. The Cowboys’ bruising, ground-and-pound style should be a more of a problem for the Golden Flashes than the latter’s uptempo attack will be for the former. Kent State ranks in the nation’s bottom 25 in giving up 4.8 yards per carry, and Wyoming has a platoon of running backs to deploy. Lean: Wyoming -3.

Frisco Bowl: San Diego State +3 vs. UTSA, over/under: 49.5. Give San Diego State a break for its blowout loss to Utah State in the Mountain West Conference championship game considering the Aztecs were dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak that affected a huge chunk of the roster. They’re healthy now with one of the nation’s best defenses poised to give the Roadrunners trouble. Guess: San Diego State +3.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or