Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 15 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 16, 2021 | 2 a.m.

The lights flickering out of sports books’ corners of casinos Tuesday morning and afternoon weren’t from plugging in some late holiday decorations.

They were betting boards, and back-room monitors, illuminating like Clark Griswold’s house in Christmas Vacation to a bevy of news and action. A rash of positive COVID-19 cases spread throughout the league shifted the lines significantly in several games spread throughout the league.

Tuesday is usually one of the most inactive NFL betting days. The initial surge of money comes on opening prices Sunday nights into Monday morning with limits starting to increase Wednesday all the way up to kickoff on the next Sunday.

Information is king, however, and there’s no waiting in a market as competitive as the NFL when it starts to surface. Talking Points is left to survey the damage and assess all the coronavirus fallout in the Week 15 betting column.

Read below for picks on every Week 15 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year picking every game against the spread stands at 103-104-1 after a 8-6 record in Week 14.

Plays (37-31)

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 vs. Tennessee Titans A full complement of Steelers’ defensive players are expected to return this week including NFL sacks leader T.J. Watt who could pose a major threat to a porous Titans’ pass-blocking unit. Tennessee is in the league’s bottom five in allowing sacks on 8.04% of snaps.

New England Patriots +2.5 at Indianapolis Colts The Patriots are on a historically dominant stretch, having won in seven straight and covered in all the victories, by an average of 18.5 points per game. And yet, too many bettors still aren’t buying it as evidenced by this line moving 3.5 points — from New England -1 — since last week.

San Francisco 49ers -8.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Atlanta’s lousy secondary will be ripe for the taking against the NFL’s most quietly explosive offense. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is third in the NFL in averaging 8.36 yards per pass attempt, and should have a closer-to-full-strength Deebo Samuel back at his disposal this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Houston Texans Scoop up the final remaining -3s in town even though it means paying -120 (risking $1.20 to win $1) as -3 (-120) is a far better bet than -3.5 (-110). The Jaguars laid 3.5 at the Texans to open the year, and even though they lost, they’ve been the slightly better team all year meaning the big adjustment the other way is incorrect.

Leans (36-35)

Denver Broncos -1.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Denver has been a hair better than Cincinnati all season by almost any analytical set of power ratings, and came out of last week’s game with fewer injuries. This number should be at least one point higher, if not more, with Denver’s additional homefield advantage at Empower Field at Mile High.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs This number arrived at a fair price in a roundabout way with a point trimming off after the news of Chris Jones being among the COVID positive-test casualties. The Chargers are the right side because they’ve been the more overall efficient team, but the spread would need to get back to +3.5 or +4 to become a play.

Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 vs. Washington Football Team The beaten-up Eagles were in dire need of a bye week, and got it last week to mean they should come back closer to full-strength for their final games. The beaten-up Football Team is in dire need of a bye week now, but no salvation is coming as they had their time off a month ago.

Buffalo Bills -10.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Despite losses in three of four both straight-up and against the spread, Buffalo still has the league’s top-ranked defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. In a three-game losing streak both straight-up and against the spread, Carolina’s offense has quite certainly looked like the worst in the league.

Guesses (30-38-1)

Baltimore Ravens +5 vs. Green Bay Packers News of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson being expected to play this weekend through his ankle injury only moved this spread a point in his team’s direction. The former MVP may not be at 100%, and isn’t having his best year, but he’s worth more than a single point.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Cleveland Browns The Raiders might be the team least affected by COVID this week; the Browns are almost certainly the team most affected. That makes a big difference in what was otherwise a matchup between two teams with comparable talent on the rosters.

New York Jets +9 at Miami Dolphins Bettors have steamed the Dolphins up after they opened as a 7-point favorite, leaving open the possibility that their ascent during a five-game winning and covering streak might be overstated. Miami is still second-to-last in the NFL offensively in gaining 4.8 yards per play.

Seattle Seahawks +5 at Los Angeles Rams Given the top-heavy nature of their roster, the Rams are the type of team that can most ill-afford the type of coronavirus outbreak they’re currently experiencing. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson meanwhile is finally starting to look like himself off finger surgery.

Dallas Cowboys -10.5 at New York Giants This number may look inflated at first glance — until surveying the injury report. The Giants are missing key players at virtually every position, including quarterback where Daniel Jones is expected to miss his third straight game, to make them a total stay-away side.

Detroit Lions +13.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals This price is too high if either of the Lions’ top two skill players, tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift, return this week. And even if they don’t, it’s a big number for a home team that typically plays hard.

New Orleans Saints +11 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Having won two virtual coin-flip affairs with endgame heroics, and covering via similar miracle in another contest, the Buccaneers haven’t been flying quite as high as their four-game win streak suggests. The Saints’ defense has always given them problems and should have a good chance to keep the margin within single digits again.

Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings Both teams are bad enough, with negative net yard per play figures on the year, before even evaluating the consistently poor decision-making among both coaches. That boils this down to a pure old-fashioned number play where taking 3.5 is more comfortable than laying 3.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or