College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 11 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Nov. 10, 2021 | 2 a.m.

The ranks of the unbeaten are now empty.

Yes, there are four college football teams that are still perfect from a straight-up perspective (Georgia, Oklahoma, Cincinnati and UTSA) but none are unscathed against the spread any longer. Michigan State became the final team to lose against the number in last week’s 40-29 loss to Purdue as 2.5-point favorites.

The Spartans fell to 6-1-1 against the spread, and now is in a race to win the Team of the Year in the College Football Betting Awards. One of the aforementioned undefeated teams now has the best against the spread record in the nation, but not the one many may expect.

It’s UTSA, the Conference USA championship favorites that improved to 8-1 versus the number on the year with last week’s 44-23 win over UTEP as 12-point favorites. The Roadrunners’ only non-cover this season came against UNLV of all teams as they slipped past the Rebels 24-17 as 21.5-point favorites in early October.

Michigan State and UTSA both handed College football by the odds a loss last week but the column continued its trend from the entire season: Strong overall, but disappointing on plays. A 30-23-1 against the spread record picking every game last week brings the season total to 268-247-6 (56-60 on plays, 99-70-2 on leans and 113-117-4 on guesses).

Read below for picks on every Week 11 game. Lines are the best available at publication time in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories

Big Games

Michigan +1 at Penn State, over/under: 48.5. The evidence continues to get more compelling that back Jim Harbaugh in big games is a bankroll-ruiner, but Michigan’s statistical profile is just too compelling to get away from. Even the Michigan State loss took the blowing of a 16-point lead, several questionable calls and the Spartans overcoming a 157-yard, 0.7-net yard per play disadvantage. Guess: Michigan +1.

Oklahoma -5.5 at Baylor, over/under: 63. Baylor — not Oklahoma — has been the best team in the Big 12 based strictly on this season’s performance. The weight of prior data — which painted Oklahoma having a large edge — still needs to be accounted for, but not to this extent. Play: Baylor +5.5.

Mississippi State +5 at Auburn, over/under: 50. Auburn has been inconsistent, but the Tigers are taking too much heat for that considering any team would be inconsistent against their schedule. The Tigers have played the fourth toughest schedule in the nation by the FEI ratings, and still have been more efficient than the Bulldogs. Lean: Auburn -5.

Georgia -20.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 56. Tennessee is finally getting some respect from the betting market, but now it might have gone too far too soon. There’s a consensus that Georgia is the best team in the nation, to the point that it’d be a 3.5- or 4-point favorite over Alabama on a neutral field. How then can it be explained that Tennessee was a much larger underdog, getting as high as +27, in a game against Alabama where it didn’t ultimately cover a few weeks ago? Guess: Georgia -20.5.

Purdue +20 at Ohio State, over/under: 61. Opportunities to buy low on the best offense in college football don’t come around too often. Relatively lethargic Ohio State performances in wins over Nebraska and Penn State the last two weeks have made that the case here though. Play: Ohio State -20.

Minnesota +6 at Iowa, over/under: 37. Iowa should win this game, but six points is a massive amount in a game with a total this low. The market is implying no dropoff from injured Iowa starting quarterback Spencer Petras to replacement Alex Padilla, but that’s a pretty big assumption with limited supporting evidence. Guess: Minnesota +6.

Texas A&M -2.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 55.5. No one is playing better than Texas A&M, which has won and covered by double digits in four straight games dating back to its upset of Alabama. The Aggies probably won’t maintain this level throughout the end of the season, but it’s going to take a Heisman-like performance from Matt Corral to make the Rebels the team to break them out of it. Lean: Texas A&M -2.5

Washington State +13.5 at Oregon, over/under: 56. Oregon has merely stayed afloat during a four-game winning streak following its loss to Stanford, but it’s shown flashes and has the roster quality indicating an extra gear. The Ducks should overwhelm the Cougars up front. Guess: Oregon -13.5.

Big Plays

UCF +7.5 at SMU, over/under: 60.5. SMU has plateaued the last few weeks with speculation swirling on coach Sonny Dykes taking the TCU job. UCF has risen with freshman quarterback Mikey Keene settling in. Play: UCF +7.5.

West Virginia +6 at Kansas State, over/under: 74. With quarterback Skylar Thompson and running back Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State has one of he most well-balanced offenses in the nation. It’s going to be a challenge for a young West Virginia defense that’s continued to take its lump. Play: Kansas State -6.

TCU +13.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 54.5. Like I predicted in last week’s column, the Horned Frogs got a boost in playing for interim coach Jerry Kill. Like I write in the column every week, the Cowboys aren’t nearly as efficient as their record indicates. Play: TCU +13.5.

Wyoming +14.5 at Boise State, over/under: 49. Wyoming will slow this game to a crawl and focus on picking up four or five yards per play behind its deep stable of running backs. It’s not the type of style suited for Boise State and its mediocre rush defense. Play: Wyoming +14.5

Utah State +4.5 at San Jose State, over/under: 56. Last year’s Mountain West Conference Player of the Year runner-up, Spartan quarterback Nick Starkel, is finally back from injury. Utah State has overachieved to a sizable extent and may begin to experience regression as the season winds down. Play: San Jose State -4.5.

Other Picks

Play: Virginia Tech -11 vs. Duke

Play: Marshall -4.5 vs. UAB

Play: Florida Atlantic -6.5 at Old Dominion

Play: Virginia +5.5 vs. Notre Dame

Lean: Arkansas -2.5 at LSU

Lean: Middle Tennessee State -10 vs. Florida International

Lean: Louisville -3 vs. Syracuse

Lean: Georgia Tech -2 vs. Boston College

Lean: Iowa State -10.5 at Texas Tech

Lean: Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. North Carolina

Lean: East Carolina +6 at Memphis

Lean: Cincinnati -23 at South Florida

Lean: Georgia Southern +2.5 at Texas State

Lean: Tulane +3 vs. Tulsa

Lean: Ball State -2.5 at Northern Illinois

Lean: Florida State +2.5 vs. Miami

Lean: NC State +2.5 at Wake Forest

Guess: Northwestern +24.5 at Wisconsin

Guess: North Texas +1.5 vs. UTEP

Guess: Toledo -10 at Bowling Green

Guess: Arizona State -5 at Washington

Guess: UL-Monroe -2.5 vs. Arkansas State

Guess: USC -1.5 at California

Guess: Rutgers +7 at Indiana

Guess: Vanderbilt +21.5 vs. Kentucky

Guess: Louisiana Tech -6 vs. Charlotte

Guess: Missouri +1 vs. South Carolina

Guess: South Alabama +22.5 at Appalachian State

Guess: Michigan State -12.5 vs. Maryland

Guess: Western Kentucky -18.5 at Rice

Guess: Troy +6.5 vs. Louisiana

Guess: Fresno State -24.5 vs. New Mexico

Guess: Alabama -51 vs. New Mexico State

Guess: Temple + 25 vs. Houston

Guess: UCLA -15.5 vs. Colorado

Guess: Arizona +25 vs. Utah

Guess: Stanford +12.5 at Oregon State

Guess: Georgia State +10.5 at Coastal Carolina

Guess: UNR +2 at San Diego State

Guess: Central Michigan -2.5 vs. Kent State

Guess: Air Force -2.5 at Colorado State

Guess: Hawaii -3 at UNLV

Guess: Texas -30 vs. Kansas

Guess: Clemson -40 vs. Connecticut

Guess: Southern Mississippi +33 at UTSA

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or