College football by the odds: Bowl pick'em Against the Spread Part 2

The beginning of bowl season turned out every bit as sloppy, confusing, and ultimately, compelling as advertising.

Through the first 11 Football Bowl Subdivision postseason games, there’s been everything from high-profile no shows (i.e. Florida getting stomped 30-3 in the Las Vegas Bowl) to back-and-forth late-game battles (i.e. UAB’s 24-20 escape of Miami Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl). The level of play hasn’t consistently been as high as in past years with programs dealing with transfer-portal entries and other opt-outs but that hasn’t slowed down the betting action.

Money is still being pushed across the counter and lines are still moving all the way leading up to kickoff. The pick’em is hanging in there, having gone 7-5 (2-2 on plays, 3-2 on leans and 2-1 on guesses) for a mediocre start with hopes that persistence will play off going forward.

Read below for a quick handicap of the next 13 bowl games. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Thursday in Fort Worth, Texas: Baylor -4 vs. Air Force, over/under: 43. Baylor isn’t dealing with as many opt-outs as most of its power conference brethren and gets to play less than two hours from its campus in a familiar venue at TCU’s Amon G. Carter Stadium. But the Bears were also mediocre in stopping the run all year, and the weather forecast calls for cold and windy conditions to favor the Falcons’ triple-option attack. Guess: Air Force +4.

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl at Noon Friday in Shreveport, La.: Louisiana +7 vs. Houston, over/under: 57. Houston’s talent level should overwhelm Louisiana, which wore down as the season went on and lost starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge. Despite some dysfunction in the program coming out of an inconsistent year, Houston coach Dana Holgorsen has mostly kept his roster intact. Play: Houston -7.

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl at 3:30 p.m. Friday in Tampa, Fla.: Wake Forest -1 vs. Missouri, over/under: 58. Missouri doesn’t play the most exciting brand of football but its defense is better than any stop unit Wake Forest has seen since the early stretch of the season. The Demon Deacons’ offensive efficiency has also tailed off in recent games. Lean: Missouri +1.

Easy Post Hawai’i Bowl at 5 p.m. Saturday in Honolulu: Middle Tennessee +7 vs. San Diego State, over/under: 49. The Aztecs had started to solve their long-standing offensive issues at the end of the year behind the improvement of quarter Jalen Mayden. They also lobbied to land in this bowl game given their familiarity with traveling to the islands that could present another small edge. Lean: San Diego State -7.

Quick Lane Bowl at 11:30 a.m. Monday in Detroit: New Mexico State +3.5 vs. Bowling Green, over/under: 48. It’s a minor miracle outmanned New Mexico State made a bowl game and it was worth fading the Aggies at the sports books that opened this number around a pick’em but those prices are long gone. The Falcons still have the better roster but laying more than a field goal is a tough sell. Guess: Bowling Green -3.5.

Camellia Bowl at 9 a.m. Tuesday in Montgomery, Ala.: Georgia Southern -3.5 vs. Buffalo, over/under: 67.5. Buffalo probably didn’t deserve to beat lowly Akron 23-22 as 12-point favorites in the regular-season finale to reach bowl eligibility and now it’s seen a number of players enter the transfer portal. Georgia Southern has both a personnel and locational advantage. Guess: Georgia Southern -3.5.

Servpro First Responder Bowl at 12:15 p.m. Tuesday in Dallas: Memphis -7 vs. Utah State, over/under: 61.5. This could be one of the better early bowl games if both teams were at full-strength, but Utah State is nowhere close with a lengthy injury report. Memphis had the more explosive offense to begin with, and now its advantage only appears more pronounced given Utah State’s weakened state. Lean: Memphis -7.

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl at 3:45 p.m. Tuesday in Birmingham, Ala.: Coastal Carolina +8 vs. East Carolina, over/under: 62. East Carolina -9 was one of the first bets I made coming into bowl season, and perhaps the one I now regret most thoroughly. Everything changed when Chanticleers quarterback Grayson McCall announced he would play in the game despite entering the transfer portal, and now the number seems more in place if not a little short. Guess: Coastal Carolina +8.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl at 7:15 p.m. Tuesday in Phoenix: Wisconsin -3.5 vs. Oklahoma State, over/under: 43. Both these teams are shells of the version that played during the regular season, suffering greatly from large swaths of players entering the transfer portal. Wisconsin might have a motivational edge in the final game of well-liked interim coach Jim Leonhard, but it’s not worth paying this large of a premium in a contest that could go a variety of ways. Guess: Oklahoma State +3.5.

Military Bowl at 11 a.m. Wednesday in Annapolis, Md.: UCF +3 vs. Duke, over/under: 62.5. UCF might be down to its third quarterback if John Rhys Plumlee can’t return from injury and early reports were not promising. Duke, meanwhile, hasn’t seen any starters depart before the bowl game and was undervalued all year by the betting market en route to an 8-4 against the spread record. Play: Duke -3.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl at 2:30 p.m. in Memphis: Kansas +3 vs. Arkansas, over/under: 62.5. Arkansas’ defense was already sliding down the stretch of the season and has now seen several departures including coordinator Barry Odom getting the head coaching job at UNLV. Kansas got healthier late in the season and has a fuller roster in tow. Play: Kansas +3.

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl at 5 p.m. at Petco Park: Oregon -14 vs. North Carolina, over/under: 73. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is a special player who should be considered among the 2023 Heisman favorites, but the odds are stacked against him here. He’s lost both offensive coordinator Phil Longo (to Wisconsin) and top target Josh Downs (to the NFL Draft) and will need a heck of an effort just to keep the Tar Heels competitive. Guess: Oregon -14.

TaxAct Texas Bowl at 6 p.m. in Houston: Texas Tech +3.5 vs. Ole Miss, over/under: 70. These teams finished the season going in different directions with the Red Raiders winning three straight and the Rebels losing three straight. But the market appears to have overreacted to that, as a month and a half ago, Ole Miss would have been more than a touchdown favorite in this game. Lean: Ole Miss -3.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or