Vegas pick’em: NFL conference championship winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The Rams and Chiefs provided back-to-back instant-classic victories Sunday afternoon to close the divisional round, leading many to assume an eventual meeting between the two in Super Bowl 56 is all but locked up.

The betting odds would caution not to get too attached to that idea, however, with the Bengals and 49ers still standing in the way of the Chiefs and Rams, respectively. Many sports books posted odds on the exact Super Bowl matchup going into Sunday’s conference championship games, and though Rams vs. Chiefs is the favorite, it’s not so in runaway fashion like public perception may indicate.

It’s Even money at Boyd Sports, about the exact same as a moneyline parlay on the two favored sides this weekend would pay all around town. The 50/50 shot also fits with recent history, as both favorites have won outright on conference championship weekend in five of the last 10 years.

As for the other potential matchups, Kansas City vs. San Francisco is +220 (risking $1 to win $2.20) with Cincinnati vs. Los Angeles +470 and Cincinnati vs. San Francisco +800.

I wouldn’t bet any of those prices, and probably shouldn’t bet on the playoffs at all anymore with the way it’s gone so far. I went 1-3 last week after a 1-5 showing in the wild-card round to bring the overall record picking every game on the season to 138-143-1.

Read below for picks on both conference championship games. Picks have been separated in three confidence categories all season with attached records. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (47-42)

Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 at Kansas City Chiefs The Bengals took action against Kansas City in Week 17, closed +3.5 and beat the Chiefs 34-31 outright while outgaining them by nearly 1 yard per play. How in the world are they available at 4 points higher now? In fairness, this line is 7 at most sports books but BetMGM is offering +7.5 (-120), and that’s a must-take. Yes, the Bengals are outgunned on offense assuming Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t go off for another 266-yard game like the first time against the Chiefs. But Cincinnati has the better defense, one that held Kansas City to three points in the second half earlier this month. The Chiefs should win, but they shouldn’t win by much.

Leans (48-44)

Guesses (43-57-1)

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Unlike the AFC Championship Game, the NFC Championship Game has an identical line to the late-season one between the teams where the Rams gave 3.5 points hosting the 49ers. Los Angeles went up 17-0 in that game before losing in overtime and allowing San Francisco to advance to the playoffs. The 49ers were more dominant statistically and hold a much-publicized six-game win streak against the Rams, but they’re far from full strength going into the third meeting of the season against their NFC West rivals. Virtually every important player on the 49ers’ roster is dealing with one injury or another, and that’s too big of a factor not to consider when the spread looks otherwise correct.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or