College football by the odds: Las Vegas picks for every Week 1 game

Colorado stole the spotlight in college football’s Week 1 festivities a year ago. It only feels fair that the Buffaloes reclaim their spot at center stage on the opening night of Week 1 for the 2024 season.

Colorado sprung one of the biggest upsets of the season a year ago when it downed defending national runner-up TCU 45-42 at as high as a 21.5-point underdog in Coach Deion Sanders’ Football Bowl Subdivision coaching debut. Most of the big money was on the Horned Frogs as they opened at as low as -18 before getting steamed up over three touchdowns.

“Do you believe now,” Sanders famously declared in his postfight news conference.

Well, yes. This year, Colorado does seem to have a lot more believers — at least to start the season.

Colorado goes into a 5 p.m. season kickoff game Thursday night against Football Championship Subdivision power North Dakota State as a 9.5-point favorite. Unlike last year, money has come in on Coach Prime’s squad.

The Buffaloes opened as low as a 7.5-point favorite over the Bison.

Colorado may not post a much better record than last year’s 4-8 for the season — its over/under win total is sitting at 5.5 — but it should be 1-0 again. North Dakota State has a storied program, but it doesn’t have NFL-caliber players like Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders and cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter.

This could be one of the Bison's lesser teams as they break in a new coach in Tim Polasek. I was a “doubter,” as Deion Sanders would have said, in Week 1 last year and fell victim to the TCU upset, but this year I’m backing Colorado.

Give me Colorado -9.5 as the first play in this week’s column. I won’t typically handicap FBS vs. FCS games in this column, but this one is different.

And I might need the help of an extra pick considering Week 0’s pick’em was a disaster with an 0-2 record (0-1 on plays, 0-0 on leans and 0-1 on guesses). But a long season is ahead with a lot of games to be play and a lot of money to make.

Read below for picks on every Week 1 game in FBS, with write-ups for the biggest games and strongest positions. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories, with the line being the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. Games at the bottom are listed in rough order of confidence.

Top Games

North Carolina -2 at Minnesota, over/under: 55.5. This game will draw loads of action as the default most intriguing matchup of Thursday’s slate, but both teams look like fade candidates to me with coaches who might be on their way out. North Carolina has the more established offensive identity and firepower with running back Omarion Hampton, but Minnesota has an equivalent edge on defense led by defensive-tackle disruptor Jah Joyner. There’s not a big enough difference in these teams for one side to be favored on the road. Lean: Minnesota +2.

Clemson +13 vs. Georgia in Atlanta, over/under: 49. Clemson kept it close — and ugly — the last time these two teams met in this game, losing only 10-3 as 3-point favorites in Week 1 of the 2021 season. But that was the last time the Tigers looked remotely on the Bulldogs’ level. The gap in roster quality arguably only grew this offseason, as Clemson coach Dabo Swinney continued to only give, and refuse to take, from the transfer portal. Lean: Georgia -13.

Penn State -8.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 51.5. The Mountaineers have taken a lot of money after this spread opened as high as -12. It makes sense given the glowing practice reports coming out of on their offense led by quarterback Garrett Greene and running back Jahiem White, but at the same time, the Nittany Lions have an even higher offensive potential. The number is probably now in the right place, but if it dips any lower, there might be value on Penn State. Guess: Penn State -8.5.

Miami +3 at Florida, over/under: 54.5. Yes, the Gators have one of the toughest schedules in college football history but that’s all anyone ever seems to say about them, and it doesn’t matter much in Week 1. They’re fresh for now, and at full-strength, Florida’s roster stacks right up to Miami’s. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz was statistically superior to Miami’s much-ballyhooed counterpart Cam Ward in any passing metric last year despite facing a much tougher slate of competition. Play: Florida +3.

Notre Dame +2.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 46.5. The Aggies should have their way with the Irish in the trenches, especially now that Notre Dame left tackle Charles Jagusah is out for the season and true freshman Antoine Knapp is in. Being tasked with blocking Texas A&M All-American edge-rusher candidate Nic Scourton is a far from ideal debut assignment. Play: Texas A&M -2.5.

USC +4.5 vs. LSU at Allegiant Stadium, over/under: 64.5. Under might be the difficult but smart way to bet this game with both defenses having nowhere to go but up after struggling mightily a year ago. That means points might be more at a premium and add value to the underdog on the point spread. USC was definitely worth a bet most of the offseason at as high as +6.5 but the spread is now moving into a more appropriate range. Lean: USC +4.5.

Boston College +17 at Florida State, over/under: 50. The Eagles have some clear advantages with Seminole game tape now available to study and the home team having to travel back from Ireland off its 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech as 10.5-point favorites. But are those advantages really worth the additional 3.5 points this spread moved following Florida State’s loss? The price drop seems steep unless you’re totally comfortable writing off the Seminoles being a contender. Guess: Florida State -17.

Top Plays

Florida Atlantic +14 at Michigan State, over/under: 45. Remember when now-Florida Atlantic coach Tom Herman was the greatest underdog coach of all-time in starting 13-2 against the spread when taking points at Houston and Texas? This is a great setup for him to get back to the prowess as Michigan State breaks in entirely new systems under first-year coach Jonathan Smith while Herman is a bit more entrenched in his second season at Florida Atlantic. Play: Florida Atlantic +14.

Virginia Tech +13.5 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 50. Virginia Tech is one of the trendiest sleeper teams in the nation because of the way it ended last season, but carrying over the so-called momentum — even with an experienced roster — into a new season is always easier said than done. Vanderbilt isn’t getting any flowers, on the other hand, despite upgrading significantly by bringing in a slew of pieces from last year’s surprise New Mexico State team including quarterback Diego Pavia and coach Jerry Kill. Play: Vanderbilt +13.5.

Connecticut +20.5 at Maryland, over/under: 45. Maryland’s offense, reeling from losing the vast majority of its best players, is way too much of a work in progress to be laying this many points to any team with a competent defense. The Huskies are more than competent on that side of the ball, as it’s been the biggest reason why they’ve climbed to respectability in the last two years under coach Jim Mora Jr. Play: Connecticut +20.5.

Florida International +21 at Indiana, over/under: 52. Don’t expect the Year 1 growing pains that bite most new coaches to hurt Indiana’s Curt Cignetti as much. That’s because he imported a large amount of players from his previous spot at James Madison. Those are the same players that have wrecked everything in their paths en route to a historic 19-5 straight-up, 15-9 against the spread record in the program’s first two years as a FBS program. They should keep rolling in new colors. Play: Indiana -21.

Miami (Ohio) +2.5 at Northwestern, over/under: 42.5. Northwestern benefitted from a large amount of good fortune to go 8-5 straight-up and win the Las Vegas Bowl last season so some regression should be expected, but this spread gives them no credit for last year’s breakout. The Wildcats’ defense remains a fringe top-25 unit and should provide fits for a RedHawks’ offense that returns quarterback Brett Gabbert but few weapons around him. Play: Northwestern -2.5.

UNR +8 at Troy, over/under: 45. The Wolf Pack sure are getting a lot of credit for a game where they had a 1% postgame win expectancy, per the SP+ ratings. SMU played awfully to eke out only a 29-24 win over UNR as 28-point favorites, and the latter shouldn’t get a major boost to its power rating for it. But that’s what happening with this number having trimmed as much as seven points since opening. Play: Troy -8.

UCLA -14.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 55.5. Hawaii similarly didn’t look all that great in only defeating Delaware State 35-14 as 41-point favorites, but I wouldn’t downgrade the Warriors much. They kept their game plan vanilla in anticipation for throwing more at the Bruins. And with their mix of experience and playmaking going up against a team that had offseason disarray with DeShaun Foster taking over the coaching job late, they should have a shot at the outright upset. Play: Hawaii +14.5.

Other Games

Play: UTSA -24.5 vs. Kennesaw State

Play: Syracuse -17 vs. Ohio

Play: Eastern Michigan +2 at Massachusetts

Lean: UNLV +2.5 at Houston

Lean: Sam Houston +10.5 at Rice

Lean: South Alabama -5.5 vs. North Texas

Lean: Coastal Carolina +2.5 at Jacksonville State

Lean: Stanford +9.5 vs. TCU

Lean: Alabama -31.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Lean: Southern Miss +28 at Kentucky

Lean: Georgia Southern +13 vs. Boise State

Lean: UTEP +27.5 at Nebraska

Lean: Oklahoma -42.5 vs. Temple

Lean: South Carolina -20.5 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: Arizona State -6.5 vs. Wyoming

Guess: Georgia Tech -21.5 vs. Georgia State

Guess: Michigan -21.5 vs. Fresno State

Guess: Akron +51 at Ohio State

Guess: Texas -31.5 vs. Colorado State

Guess: Western Michigan +24.5 at Wisconsin

Guess: New Mexico +31.5 at Arizona

Guess: Pittsburgh -23.5 vs. Kent State

Guess: Charlotte +6.5 vs. James Madison

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or