College football by the odds: Vegas pick and preview of UM versus UW

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Jan. 8, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Rome Odunze was already a hero on local football fields from his time at Bishop Gorman High where he emerged as one of the best high-school football players in the nation before graduating in 2020.

Now he’s earned the same status in Las Vegas sports books. Odunze came through in a big way for bettors in Washington’s 37-31 victory over Texas as 3-point underdogs last week by hauling in six catches for 125 yards.

Odunze going over 97.5 passing yards was one of the most popularly bet proposition wagers on the board, and sports book crowds surely erupted when he ran circles around the Longhorns. It was nothing new for the Biletnikoff Award runner-up, as he now has five straight games with at least 100 receiving yards.

He’s also topped that bar in 10 of 14 games this season, raising himself into a potential top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The biggest challenge in continuing to build on the streak comes tonight in the national championship game against Michigan.

The Wolverines will have their own likely future first-round pick in cornerback Will Johnson, who’s not draft-eligible until 2025, covering him. Odunze’s odds have accordingly adjusted downwards, as his over/under receiving yards is 89.5 against Michigan at Caesars/William Hill.

His anytime touchdown prize has also trimmed from -155 (i.e. risking $155 to win $100) against Texas — when he failed to score — to -125 against Michigan. Those who like Washington to upset Michigan as 5-point underdogs tonight shouldn’t be shy about mixing in some pro-Odunze positions.

All season long, the Huskies have been at their best when Odunze is at his best.

Read below to find my betting analysis on Washington vs. Michigan to cap the pick’em column where I’ve handicapped every Football Bowl Subdivision game all season. The record for bowl season sits at 20-20-2 (10-6-1 on plays, 5-9 on leans and 5-5-1 on guesses) while the mark for the year as a whole is 385-363-15 (96-95-2 on plays, 137-123-5 on leans and 152-145-8 on guesses). Let’s go out win with one more winner before coming back stronger next year.

College Football Playoff National Championship at 4:30 p.m. Monday at NRG Stadium in Houston: Washington +5 vs. Michigan, over/under: 56.5.

Most bettors questioned Michigan going into its 27-20 playoff semifinal win against Alabama as 2-point favorites at the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines now have far fewer doubters ahead of their national championship game matchup against Washington.

Perhaps scorned from back-to-back, noncover semifinal exits in the two previous seasons, gamblers largely faded Michigan on New Year’s Day. Multiple major sportsbooks that release betting splits reported around 70% of tickets coming in on the underdog Crimson Tide.

The Huskies aren’t getting the same respect, as early indications were the action was about split, but the line was doing something it didn’t do in Michigan’s first game and moving in the Wolverines’ direction.

The first local sports books to open a spread on the national championship installed Michigan as a 3.5-point favorites. Now, it’s most widely laying 5 points.

Public betting reports, contrary to what some might say, hold no predictive value. They’re just interesting to look at, discuss and use as a peek into the public sentiment.

Michigan never deserved so much skepticism in the first place, a bias I used to cash a winning ticket on it against Alabama. The Wolverines have been the best team in the nation all season, and a profitable bet to boot with a 9-5 against the spread record.

They’ve mostly done it all by pushing around opponents up front, a trend that continued against the Crimson Tide with six sacks on quarterback Jalen Milroe defensively and two long touchdown drives behind running back Blake Corum offensively.

Getting manhandled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball is a major concern for Washington, which isn’t nearly as well-equipped there as Alabama.

The good news is, the Huskies have designed their offense around the flaw. Few passers get the ball out quicker and more accurately than Heisman runner-up quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and no one has a receiving corps as talented as his that features Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk.

The case for Washington is a hope that it can overwhelm Michigan with its playmakers, and create a shootout where Michigan ultimately can’t keep up.

I’m hoping that’s how this plays out.

Anyone who’s read the pick’em throughout the year knows how high I’ve been on the Huskies. Betting them to win the Pac-12 was one of the first bets I made this season, and I augmented it early in the season with a 25-to-1 future ticket to claim the title.

Their aptitude as an underdog — they’ve won and covered in all five games when taking points the last two years under coach Kalen DeBoer — and in close games — 8-0 in contests decided by a touchdown — is giving me some confidence it may cash.

I’d typically be the first to label Washington’s record in games decided by a touchdown or less as unsustainable, and it might still be, but there’s some signal that it’s more than just noise in this case.

The best coaches tend to overperform in close games, and DeBoer has emerged as one the elite game managers in college football. Washington’s run game is not on par with its pass game — especially perhaps now with Dillon Johnson aggravating his foot injury late in the semifinal win over Texas — so it’s difficult for it to sit on and maintain big leads.

That’s probably not a realistic game script here anyway. Michigan is going to get its points.

Corum, fellow running back Donovan Edwards and mobile-now-that-he's-healthy quarterback J.J. McCarthy should be able to exploit a Washington rush defense ranking 119^th in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play.

There’s no disputing Michigan is the better side top to bottom, sitting second in the nation in overall EPA per play. But the one team that graded out ahead of it? Oregon, which trucked everything in its path this year except for the two times it faced Washington and suffered small defeats.

The Ducks presented many of the same challenges that the Wolverines will, and the Huskies were able to navigate them. A Michigan blowout of Washington is more probable than the inverse, but it’s still not all that likely.

This should be a back-and-forth game where both teams lead, though maybe that’s just more wishful thinking on my part. I made the spread Michigan -4, so I can neither make nor recommend a pregame bet on the Wolverines even though I think they will win.

I’m letting my 25-to-1 ticket ride for now, and will look to monetize it in live-betting markets when or if Washington builds a lead.

The four-team College Football Playoff should go out with a bang. Both semifinal games were outstanding, and the national championship should be just as tightly contested.

Lean: Washington +5

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or