Vegas pick’em: NFL wild-card weekend winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Lamar Jackson is widely believed to have just wrapped up one Most Valuable Player award, and now is favored to claim another.

The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback is almost surely taking home his second regular-season MVP trophy after leading his team to the NFL’s top overall record this season at 13-4. He went off the board around a -1000 (i.e. risking $1,000 to win $100) favorite before the final full slate of games.

But his name was quickly back at the top of the futures sections on some local sports-betting apps as shops began opening odds to win the Super Bowl MVP this week.

Jackson is the top choice everywhere including Caesars/William Hill where he’s offered at +400 (i.e. risking $100 to win $400), just ahead of 49ers counterpart Brock Purdy at +430.  

By the odds, the most likely Super Bowl MVP suiting up this weekend as part of the opening week of the NFL playoffs is Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who’s listed at 6-to-1. Reigning winner/Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 11-1, a sixth choice also behind 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (at 7-to-1) and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (10-to-1).  

Super Bowl MVP is a market that’s picked up steam in recent years. It’s been available right before the Big Game for years, but a relatively new phenomenon to open at the start of the playoffs.

Betting on Jackson to win regular-season MVP was one of the first bets I wrote about this season. Will I supplement it with a bet to win the Super Bowl version?

Unlikely, at least not at the moment.

There’s a big difference between his preseason 18-to-1 price and postseason 4-to-1 tag. But stay tuned for the exotics-focused Sunday Sweats column, running on Saturday before the games kick off this week, where I might dip into the market.

Handicapping the games themselves is the first order of business though.  

Read below to find my picks on every wild-card weekend contest. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year through the regular season is 138-129-5.

Plays (48-34-3)

Detroit Lions -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams Detroit finished the year ranked No. 7 by the DVOA ratings; Los Angeles was No. 17. Other analytical measures paint just as wide of a gap. The cases being made in favor of the Rams feel comically narrative-driven in nature — Los Angeles coach Sean McVay knows Detroit quarterback Jared Goff’s flaws too well, Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford will continue to haunt his former team, etc. — and rooted in nostalgia of past postseason runs. This year’s Rams don’t have nearly as many defensive difference-makers as the franchise’s two recent teams to reach the Super Bowl. The personnel advantage and season-long data points are far more slanted in Detroit’s favor  than this line implies.       

Green Bay Packers +8 at Dallas Cowboys The Packers went 6-2 straight-up, 5-3 against the spread over the second half of the season with an overall statistical profile ranking inside the top 10 of the NFL by virtually any measure. Green Bay’s early-season mediocrity still holds some weight but not as much as this line, and perception at large, seems to indicate. The Packers are no walkover. Dallas has arguably shown more cracks down the stretch of the season and had failed to cover three straight before pouring it on Washington late in a 38-10 victory as 13.5-point favorites last week.    

Leans (44-41-1)

Houston Texans +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns The betting market has struggled to correctly price the impact of surefire eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud all year, and the trend might be extending into the playoffs. This line is only a half-point shift from Christmas Eve when the Browns traveled to play the Texans as 3-point favorites with Stroud injured and Davis Mills starting at quarterback. The difference between Stroud and Mills is more than a half-point, even while weighing the traditional struggles of rookie debutants in the playoffs. This would elevate to a play if the odds bloat to Texans +3. 

Pittsburgh Steelers +10 at Buffalo Bills Yes, they’ve won a lot more since a change from offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady but the Bills’ efficiency on that side of the ball is actually down since the switch. That doesn’t preclude them from being a bona fide Super Bowl contender — especially with the defense having re-solidified itself — but it does make them difficult to trust laying a double-digit point spread. The weather Sunday morning at Highmark Stadium could be particularly ugly with potential 30 mile per hour winds to make points hard to come by and increase their value on the point spread.   

Guesses (46-54-1)

Kansas City Chiefs -4 vs. Miami Dolphins Getting Miami at anywhere near this price would have been the top play of wild-card weekend as recently as a couple weeks ago, but too much has broken against the Dolphins since then. Namely, all their best players are injured. Some of them — including receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle — will play through their ailments but absences on defense and the offensive line loom larger given the conditions. The entire game could be contested at temperatures below 0 degrees with the wind chill, and  it’s too much to ask a beaten-down, warm-weather team to rally with so many handicaps.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles have the talent to bury the Buccaneers if they can regain any semblance of their early-season form, but it’s becoming impossible to maintain confidence in that eventually happening. The Eagles haven’t covered a point spread since their 21-17 Week 11 victory at Kansas City as 2.5-point underdogs. The Buccaneers come into the postseason skidding themselves, having averaged an alarming 3.6 yards per play in a fortunate 9-0 Week 18 win over the Panthers as 4.5-point favorites, but they might be the healthiest team in the field. Tampa Bay has been erratic all year, but it's worth just hoping that it will find a good day to start the playoffs with the number climbing to +3. My fair point spread was the opening number, Eagles -2.5.     

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or