Vegas pick’em: NFL conference championship winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Both conference No. 1 seeds reached the Super Bowl for the first time in five years last season.

Let’s hope the NFL goes back-to-back with the two best teams meeting for the Lombardi Trophy this year. Baltimore vs. San Francisco would be the best-case scenario for Las Vegas’ debut as Super Bowl host on Sunday Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium for the 58^th iteration of the game.  

Who wouldn’t want to see the two most dominant teams all season square off for the ultimate glory?  

It’s the most competitive possible matchup by the betting line too, as several sports book have posted odds on all the combinations with Baltimore vs. San Francisco the tightest of the bunch. The 49ers are currently favored over the Ravens by one point at both Circa Sports and the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas.  

The widest possible line is the Ravens laying 4.5 points over the Detroit Lions. The defending champion Chiefs are 2.5-point underdogs to the 49ers and 3-point favorites over the Lions.

Of course, my undying devotion to a Ravens vs. 49ers Super Bowl isn’t really an altruistic position. Nothing ever really is when it comes to sports betting.

It’s more because — as you know if you’ve read Talking Points’ columns all year — I’m leveraged on futures on both teams. As if having the Ravens and 49ers to win their respective conferences and the Super Bowl wasn’t enough, I added a matchup bet on them to get to the big game before the start of the playoffs.

Such wagers are naturally on my mind as it pertains to the point spreads for conference championship weekend. I typically try to store future plays away and not let them influence my game-by-game strategy all season but it’s now become unavoidable.

They’re the prism I’m seeing the games through this weekend, which is notable background to keep in mind for this version of the pick’em.

Picks for both games are below and labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year through the regular season is 142-135-5 after an embarrassing 0-4 last week.

Plays (49-36-3)

Leans (45-44-1)

San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Detroit Lions My lone play last week was San Francisco -9.5 against Green Bay out of a belief that the correct number was -10.5. The spread in fact closed -10.5 before kickoff and the 49ers gutting out a 24-21 non-cover victory. I’m choosing to apply more predictive weight to the line movement than the sloppy 49ers' performance going into the NFC Championship Game. That’s typically the wiser approach, but it could hold some extra merit in this case.

The 49ers’ season-long sample indicates they’re a lot more efficient than they showed against the Packers, and most of the issues they faced shouldn’t carry over against the Lions. San Francisco looked rusty early, perhaps struggling with how to stay sharp and manage the extra time off out of a bye. It’s something coach Kyle Shanahan has continually cited as a challenge to him. Meanwhile, quarterback Brock Purdy was clearly flustered by the rainy conditions while switching between wearing a throwing-hand glove and not. Neither rain nor wind is in the forecast for Levi’s Stadium this week.

The Lions’ pass defense is also one of the most vulnerable in the NFL. Detroit has been torn up for 9.3 yards per pass play in the first two rounds, a big reason why it only escaped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams by a total of nine points. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield both had big moments this season, but neither of them has been as effective as Purdy overall. Detroit’s offense has also significantly fallen off in games outside of Ford Field all year.

I made this number San Francisco -7.5, and considering the market moved my way on the 49ers last week, I’m not all that sure it won’t happen again. That would leave slight value on San Francisco at the current price.        

Guesses (48-55-1)

Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Baltimore Ravens Who do you trust more: One of the greatest teams of all-time or one of the greatest players of all-time? That’s more or less how handicapping the AFC Championship Game boils down. Some would scoff at describing the Ravens with that much praise, but their statistical profile speaks for itself. Baltimore rated as the fifth-best regular season team of the last 44 years — as far back as reliable data exists — by the DVOA ratings. The last six games the Ravens have played at full-strength — they sat starters for a meaningless Week 18 loss to the Steelers — have come against teams with winning records. They’ve won those contests by an average of 16 points per game. They’re first in the NFL defensively in allowing 4.6 yards per play, and fifth on offense in gaining 5.8 yards per play.   

Lamar Jackson is a shoo-in to win his second regular-season Most Valuable Player award, and yet, no one would suggest he’s better — or certainly more trustworthy — than Kansas City counterpart/fellow two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ quarterback has looked in vintage form while throwing for 7.5 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and no interceptions in victories over the Dolphins and Bills to start the playoffs. Kansas City’s 27-24 victory at Buffalo as 2.5-point underdogs might be remembered for the home team’s late missed field goal and passing-game miscues, but statistically, it wasn’t that close in the first place. Mahomes ripped apart the Bills. Given that he’s reached six straight AFC Championship Games at this point, it’s a valid argument that there’s no stopping Mahomes when he hits this level.

But Baltimore is a higher challenge, especially on a short week in a back-to-back road game with a fully-healthy defensive corps. Both Buffalo and Miami were ravaged by injuries. I’d therefore be somewhat surprised if Baltimore lost the game. But I’d be even more surprised if Mahomes didn’t will the Chiefs to being competitive with a chance to win. The pick might be different without the existing Baltimore futures positions, but the number here feels about right. That makes shooting for a middle and hoping the Ravens win by one to three to cash both bets the best way for me to approach it.  

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or