College football by the odds: Vegas picks for every Week 2 game

Texas cast aside ridicule and pessimism after perennial disappointment and established itself as a contender early last season before ultimately reaching the College Football Playoff.

It might be Miami’s turn to play the role as the reincarnated traditional power this season. Yes, Texas is back now as one of the top power-rated teams in the country and, if Week 1 is any indication, Miami might be joining it.

The Hurricanes might have claimed the most impressive opening-week performance by dismantling Florida 41-17 on the road as 2.5-point favorites. Reverberations struck in the betting market.

Miami went from the +375 (i.e. risking $100 to win $375) third choice to win the Atlantic Coast Conference to the +250 favorite at BetMGM. It dropped to as low as 18-to-1 to win the College Football Playoff after sitting as high as 60-to-1.

New Hurricane quarterback Cam Ward joined counterparts Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) and Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) as the Heisman Favorite co-favorites at +850 at Boyd Sports after he was previously as high as 22-to-1.

Some will say all the movement is a product of reacting too strongly to Week 1. But there’s also the scenario where the betting odds don’t shift aggressively enough.

Texas’ comeback last year didn’t turn out to be a mirage. Miami’s might not be either, especially in a weak ACC that should result in the Hurricanes being favored in every game.

It's slight value, and maybe not even worth a wager at +200, but at +250, back Miami to win the conference.

The Hurricanes face a Football Championship Subdivision opponent this week, Florida A&M, but there are plenty of widely-lined Football Bowl Subdivision matchups to keep College football by the odds busy. That includes Texas’ trip to Michigan Stadium to take on the defending College Football Playoff champions.

Week 1 went well for the column overall with a 23-13-1 (6-7 on plays, 10-3-1 on leans and 7-3 on guesses) showing. That brings the season-to-date tally handicapping every FBS game to 23-15-1 (6-8 on plays, 10-3-1 on leans and 7-4 on guesses).

Read below for picks on every Week 2 contest with write-ups for the biggest games and strongest positions. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories, with the line being the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. Games at the bottom are listed in rough order of confidence.

Top Games

Texas -6.5 at Michigan, over/under: 44.5. This number sat at Texas -1.5 for the last few months, and it sure would have been nice to have taken an early position on the Longhorns. The Longhorns looked every bit as explosive as last year’s College Football Playoff team with a 52-0 win over Colorado State as 35-point favorites in Week 1. The Wolverines looked even more toothless on offense than anyone could have imagined coming off a national championship in a 30-10 win over Fresno State as 20.5-point favorites. A five-point move feels like a reasonable adjustment for the contrasting results, but the spread shouldn’t go over a touchdown. Guess: Texas -6.5.

Arkansas +8.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 60. So much for Arkansas being highly undervalued early in the season. I thought the Razorbacks would be a sneaky team to target early in the year coming off last year’s dreadful 4-8 straight-up campaign, but the market has already caught on that they should be much improved. They are 8-point underdogs in most shops for this game — the exact number I put on the game. Still, the upside of new quarterback Taylen Green in a Bobby Petrino-coordinated offense remains tantalizing. Guess: Arkansas +8.5.

Baylor +15.5 at Utah, over/under: 53.5. The market’s pessimism on the Bears doesn’t add up considering they got upgrades at quarterback (former Toledo passer Dequan Finn), offensive coordinator (former Texas State coach Jake Spavital) and defensive coordinator (coach Dave Aranda is now calling the plays). It’s never easy traveling to Rice-Eccles Stadium, but this spread shouldn’t be above two touchdowns. Play: Baylor +15.5.

Iowa State +2.5 at Iowa, over/under: 36. It’s been more than 20 years since Iowa gave this few points to rival Iowa State at Kinnick Stadium. Oh, and the Cyclones have gotten outscored by 97 points in the venue during that span. Both these sides look like teams to fade going forward, but only one of them is being priced like it’s a historically strong team for its program standards. Play: Iowa -2.5.

Tennessee -7.5 at NC State, over/under: 60.5. Tennessee might be superior to N.C. State at every position. Yes, there’s always a bit of a concern about a young quarterback making his first road start. But the narrative might be overblown, and Volunteers sophomore Nico Iamaleava has passed every test so far with flying colors. There’s no reason to doubt him going up against this one. Play: Tennessee -7.5.

Colorado +7.5 at Nebraska, over/under: 58. Nebraska lived up to the hype with a 40-7 Week 1 win over UTEP as 27.5-point favorites, but the Miners are breaking in a whole new team and might wind up one of the worst sides in the country. Colorado at least showed some defensive competence in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites as the game stretched on. The uncertainty with both of these teams makes a spread of more than a touchdown seem inflated. Lean: Colorado +7.5.

Boise State +17.5 at Oregon, over/under: 61. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty might be the best running back in the country — he racked up 267 yards and six touchdowns on 20 carries in a 56-45 win over Georgia Southern as 11.5-point favorites — but Oregon’s rush defense should be formidable. Oregon labored to a 24-14 victory over Idaho as 49.5-point favorites but statistically didn’t play as poorly as the score indicated. The Ducks were a 24-point favorite in this game before the underperformance, and trimming down a whole touchdown might be too much. Guess: Oregon -17.5.

Top Plays

Duke +2.5 at Northwestern, over/under: 39.5. It’s not picturesque but the Wildcats pretty much picked up where they left off in last year’s eight-win season under second-year coach David Braun with a 13-6 win over Miami (Ohio) as 3-point favorites. The Blue Devils don’t have that luxury as they’re largely starting from scratch under new coach Manny Diaz. Play: Northwestern -2.5.

Georgia Tech -3.5 at Syracuse, over/under: 61.5. The talent edge here is more negligible than the spread suggests after new Syracuse coach Fran Brown hit the transfer portal hard to build his first team. Georgia Tech’s 35-12 win over Georgia State was closer than the final score indicated as it took a goal-line stand to cover the 20.5-point spread and win its second straight to start the season. Some attrition should be expected with the Yellow Jackets in their second road game of the year coming off a trip to Ireland. Play: Syracuse +3.5.

Bowling Green +36 at Penn State, over/under: 49. Bowling Green looks like the best MAC team this season with a pair of skill players that are power-conference caliber in running back Terion Stewart and tight end Harold Fannin. It might not be enough to put a real scare into Penn State, but Bowling Green could at least hang around. They’re too talented to be a near 40-point underdog to anyone except the absolute top-tier teams, and the Nittany Lions may still be a cut below that level. Play: Bowling Green +36.

South Carolina +10 at Kentucky, over/under: 45. The Gamecocks were horrendous and probably didn’t deserve to escape Old Dominion with a 23-19 victory as 21-point favorites in Week 1. But it was just one game. This spread was shaping up to be Kentucky by less than a touchdown before South Carolina no-showed. The visitors still seem to have speed and playmaking advantages and therefore shouldn’t be getting double-digits. Play: South Carolina +10.

Northern Illinois +31 at Notre Dame, over/under: 45.5. Northern Illinois probably isn’t even the second best MAC team, but it’s quite possibly the most physical MAC team. The Huskies are unlikely to get completely bowled over by the Irish up front. And it would just be classic Notre Dame to struggle with a Group of Five conference opponent a week after nabbing one of the program’s biggest road wins — 23-13 at Texas A&M as 3-point underdogs. Play: Northern Illinois +31.

East Carolina -2 at Old Dominion, over/under: 52. The Pirates had awful fumble luck in piling up a -4 turnover margin in Week 1, and still smashed Norfolk State 42-3 as 31-point favorites. They have a defensive line that can match up with lesser Power Five Conference opponents, and should bowl over a suspect Old Dominion front. East Carolina opened an underdog ­— something that should have never happened — but the number hasn’t corrected far enough until it becomes more than a field-goal favorite. Play: East Carolina -2.

Utah State +28 at USC, over/under: 63. After pointing out a handful of overreactions, here’s a game that might have under-moved based on Week 1. USC deserved more credit for showing off its weapon-rich offense to upset LSU 27-20 as 4-point underdogs at Allegiant Stadium. This number only moved a point off the victory. Play: USC -28.

Other Games

Play: SMU -10 vs. BYU

Play: Memphis -16.5 vs. Troy

Play: Massachusetts +20.5 at Toledo

Play: Alabama -30.5 vs. South Florida

Play: UAB -12.5 at Louisiana-Monroe

Play: Oregon State +4 at San Diego State

Play: Buffalo +35 at Missouri

Lean: Tulane +10 vs. Kansas State

Lean: Mississippi State +6.5 at Arizona State

Lean: UCF -21 vs. Sam Houston State

Lean: Maryland -9 vs. Michigan State

Lean: Marshall +20 at Virginia Tech

Lean: Florida Atlantic -2.5 vs. Army

Lean: Air Force -6 vs. San Jose State

Lean: Navy -13 vs. Temple

Lean: Wake Forest -2 vs. Virginia

Lean: Washington State -1.5 vs. Texas Tech

Lean: Georgia Southern -1 at UNR

Lean: Charlotte +22.5 at North Carolina

Lean: Auburn -13.5 vs. California

Lean: Kennesaw State +15 vs. Louisiana

Lean: Appalachian State +18 at Clemson

Guess: Illinois +6 vs. Kansas

Guess: Houston +30 at Oklahoma

Guess: Tulsa +7 at Arkansas State

Guess: South Alabama -2 at Ohio

Guess: Cincinnati pick’em vs. Pittsburgh

Guess: Eastern Michigan +28 at Washington

Guess: Ole Miss -41 vs. Middle Tennessee State

Guess: Louisville -27.5 vs. Jacksonville State

Guess: Akron +23.5 at Rutgers

Guess: Texas State -1 vs. UTSA

Guess: Ohio State -38.5 vs. Western Michigan

Guess: New Mexico State +22.5 vs. Liberty

Guess: Florida International +5.5 vs. Central Michigan

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or