Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 1 winners against the spread

Betting odds give about a 15% chance, after adjusting for hold percentage, that the 2024-2025 NFL season will culminate with the achievement of ultimate championship history.

The Kansas City Chiefs are widely listed as the 5-to-1 favorite to win a third straight Super Bowl, something that’s never happened before in the NFL.  

That’s shorter than they’ve been each of the last two years.

The Chiefs bloated as high as 12-to-1 in the 2023 preseason before eventually earning the No. 1 playoff seed and knocking off the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57. They were widely 6-to-1 at this time a year ago but drifted higher throughout a rocky regular season before recovering to eventually beat the San Francisco 49ers in overtime of Super Bowl 58.  

Kansas City opened as high as 9-to-1 ahead of this season right after February’s championship game at Allegiant Stadium, but the number was quickly beaten down. The betting market is backing the Chiefs.

That’s also true of tonight’s season opener where they’ve swelled to a field-goal favorite over the Baltimore Ravens.  

Many want to go against the tide and forecast a more unique Super Bowl champion, but the odds paint it clearer than ever before this year that Kansas City is the team to beat.

The theme of the season will be seeing which, if any, worthy contenders emerge to challenge the Chiefs come playoff time.

Read below for my handicap of Ravens at Chiefs, and every other Week 1 game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Last year’s final record was 143-137-5 (49-37-3 on plays, 45-45-1 on leans and 49-55-1 on guesses).

Plays (0-0)

Buffalo Bills -6 vs. Arizona Cardinals The effect of the Bills losing receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis is way overblown considering both of them played relatively poorly last season. The buzz that the Cardinals can turn into a playoff contender is misguided considering at this time last year they were being regarded as one of the worst NFL rosters in recent memory.   

Tennessee Titans +4 at Chicago Bears The inevitable Tennessee money is flowing in after this line sat at 4.5 all summer and most sports books are now at 3.5. Get in before it touches 3, which is the correct price in a game between two teams that are evenly-matched with a lot of questions on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. New York Jets A lot of gamblers love the Jets but all the attention makes them a bet-against for me early in the season considering they have a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear (Aaron Rodgers) and a mediocre-at-best coaching staff (led by Robert Saleh). San Francisco was the top power-rated team in the league for the majority of last season, and should be getting a better home-field bump against a new-look opponent traveling across the country for Monday Night Football.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Washington Commanders Good luck, Jayden Daniels. The slender Washington rookie quarterback is going to need it behind one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. I hope he enjoyed being on the sidelines for the Vegas Kickoff Classic on Sunday considering it means he’ll rack up nearly 5,000 air miles in the week ahead of his NFL debut. His attendance was another puzzling decision around a franchise that keeps making them regularly.  

Denver Broncos +6 at Seattle Seahawks Mike Macdonald was a great hire as Seattle’s coach but the initial expectations of him returning the Seahawks’ defense to one of the best in the league seem a little too rosy. There’s not much top-level talent at his disposal with the possible exception of nickelback Devon Witherspoon. I’m also cautiously buying on Denver rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who looks like the right fit for coach Sean Payton’s offense.

Green Bay Packers +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles in Sao Paulo, Brazil Combined between the regular season and playoffs, the Packers posted a +46 point differential last year. The Eagles had a -18 point differential. The latter should arguably not be favored at all on a neutral field, let alone by a field goal.  

Houston Texans -2.5 at Indianapolis Colts Houston shrewdly upgraded its roster across the spectrum to take advantage of quarterback C.J. Stroud’s rookie contract this offseason. Indianapolis treaded water at best in the same department ahead of a season where it will need to figure out what it has in polarizing second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. Certainty trumps upside early in the season.  

Dallas Cowboys +2.5 at Cleveland Browns Buy low on the Cowboys, which still have a star-studded roster in place despite the usual sideshow with owner Jerry Jones that encompassed much of the offseason. Cleveland started racking up injures for what feels like the umpteenth year in training camp, including to quarterback Deshaun Watson, and yet the line has curiously moved in its direction.

Leans (0-0)

Miami Dolphins -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Explosive offenses rarely if ever fall off year over year if all the key cogs remain in their prime, and no offense has been more explosive than Miami’s over the last two seasons. Jacksonville is a buy-on team long-term, but this is a thankless opening-week matchup.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Kansas City Chiefs The Ravens closed a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup less than eight months ago in the AFC Championship Game. Yes, they ended up losing 17-10 at home and have also since shed some defensive contributors, but a 7.5-point move is awfully large. Some drop-off is to be expected, but the Ravens were a historically dominant regular-season team last year and aren’t getting enough credit for that success.   

New Orleans Saints -4 vs. Carolina Panthers The betting market currently rates the Saints as the No. 24 team in the NFL. That’s far too low. It’s hard to place much confidence in coach Dennis Allen and quarterback Derek Carr, but from an overall talent perspective, New Orleans’ roster remains closer to the middle of the pack.   

Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams The visiting Rams are reportedly much healthier heading back to Detroit where their season ended in January but they had a lot of absences throughout training camp and some of the recovering players may still be getting up to speed. The loss of defensive tackle Aaron Donald is also difficult to quantify but I’d prefer to overestimate the impact of an all-time great player retiring than underestimate it.    

Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Quarterback Gardner Minshew is known as a “gamer” who raises his level when it matters, and that’s what the Raiders will need to have a chance to knock off the Chargers on the road for the first time since 2020. If Las Vegas' offense is as laborious as it’s been in practice over the summer, then the Raiders aren’t going to score enough points to beat any decent opponent.  

New England Patriots +9 at Cincinnati Bengals This line is slightly high even if both teams are at full-strength, but it looks like at least a possibility that the Bengals will be significantly weakened with top receiver Ja’Marr Chase continuing to sit out of practice. Cincinnati’s edge on offense is significant against New England either way, but the latter more quietly has the much better defense.

Guesses (0-0)

New York Giants +1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings File this under the annual “Week 1 game I cannot figure out” tab. I’m mostly bullish on the Vikings, but moving to a road favorite after losing their highest-upside quarterback option (J.J. McCarthy) against a team that added difference-makers on both sides of the ball (edge rusher Brian Burns and wide receiver Malik Nabers) seems a bridge too far.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Atlanta Falcons The total on this game has crashed to 42, making over the best play in a matchup between defenses whose reputations exceed actual results. The NFL should also have a higher-scoring environment early in the season with the new kickoff rules. On the point spread, wait to see if the Steelers get to +3.5 and then they might be worth a lean or small bet.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or